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The capital is not Philadelphia, it's Harrisburg. So the idea must be that most people think they are right and others will agree with them, but there are people who get it right and know that others get it wrong, and they are responsible for the difference in scores.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:History/Surprisingly...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are four groups of people: A - "Philadelphia is the capital, and others will agree." B - "Philadelphia is the capital, but most others won't know that". C - "Harrisburg is the capital, and others will agree." D - "Harrisburg is the capital, but most others won't know that." This technique eliminates groups A and C from consideration, and measures the difference in size between groups B and D. Both groups B and…
This is a great summary / reduction of the article. I appreciated how you broke it down into groups and made the example more concrete.
The capital is not Philadelphia, it's Harrisburg. So the idea must be that most people think they are right and others will agree with them, but there are people who get it right and know that others get it wrong, and they are responsible for the difference in scores.
What about people who aren't sure? If you give an answer but its a guess, you'd be less likely to say people agree with you.
"My best guess is X but I believe most people would contradict me" suggests that you consider yourself an expert who knows better than most people.
The capital is not Philadelphia, it's Harrisburg. So the idea must be that most people think they are right and others will agree with them, but there are people who get it right and know that others get it wrong, and they are responsible for the difference in scores.
There are four groups of people: A - "Philadelphia is the capital, and others will agree." B - "Philadelphia is the capital, but most others won't know that". C - "Harrisburg is the capital, and others will agree." D - "Harrisburg is the capital, but most others won't know that." This technique eliminates groups A and C from consideration, and measures the difference in size between groups B and D. Both groups B and…
I can't say what such a poll would say, but I feel fairly confident that using any sort of "surprising popularity" measure is no guarantee of Truth, but only an excuse after the fact to explain a result.
As you say, for some question the "surprisingly popular" answer could just as easily be dead wrong.
The capital is not Philadelphia, it's Harrisburg. So the idea must be that most people think they are right and others will agree with them, but there are people who get it right and know that others get it wrong, and they are responsible for the difference in scores.
There are four groups of people: A - "Philadelphia is the capital, and others will agree." B - "Philadelphia is the capital, but most others won't know that". C - "Harrisburg is the capital, and others will agree." D - "Harrisburg is the capital, but most others won't know that." This technique eliminates groups A and C from consideration, and measures the difference in size between groups B and D. Both groups B and…
Let's look at another toy example, using made-up numbers: Q: Is the earth flat? Yes: 10% No: 90% Q: What do you think most people will respond to that question? Yes: 3% No: 97% Analysis: Yes: 10% - 3% = 7% No: 90% - 97% = -7% Conclusion: The earth is flat, I guess ;)
Given how 10% of people responded "yes" and so few thought people would respond "yes," I would agree that "yes" is in fact surprisingly popular.
It could just as easily be crazy answers from crazy people.
The capital is not Philadelphia, it's Harrisburg. So the idea must be that most people think they are right and others will agree with them, but there are people who get it right and know that others get it wrong, and they are responsible for the difference in scores.
There are four groups of people: A - "Philadelphia is the capital, and others will agree." B - "Philadelphia is the capital, but most others won't know that". C - "Harrisburg is the capital, and others will agree." D - "Harrisburg is the capital, but most others won't know that." This technique eliminates groups A and C from consideration, and measures the difference in size between groups B and D. Both groups B and…
Sometimes experts could be right, but other times wrong. Vaccines/climate change/current politics could all have a strong effect here and still be wrong.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What about people who aren't sure? If you give an answer but its a guess, you'd be less likely to say people agree with you.
assuming a binary question (very important) if you aren't sure, if you thought most people thought differently from you, why would you hold on to your belief that lacks both primary and secondary support? "My best guess is X but I believe most people would contradict me" suggests that you consider yourself an expert who knows better than most people.
Philadelphia should be the capital of Pennsylvania
Pittsburg/Philadelphia should be the capital.
The result of moving the capital to Philadelphia would surely strain the legitimacy of the state government even more.
Moving it to Pittsburgh would accomplish the same exact thing except it would be arguably even less just.
There are any number of reasons why keeping it in Harrisburg is imperfect but it's probably the least bad solution.
Looks like an idea for a semi-supervised ensemble method for machine learning: Prepare two equally sized ensembles of classifiers, let's call them A and B. 1. Train each classifier in ensemble A on labelled data to predict does a picture contains a cat. 2. Take some other unlabelled dataset and collect answers from classifiers from A for each picture from this dataset. 3. Train each classifier in ensemble B to predic…