How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
theatlantic.com
How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
1–10 of 11 posts
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#2The US and Taiwan don't have military alliance. The Taiwan Relations Act is carefully worded to avoid any commitment and maintain strategic ambiguity and keep both sides in check. The strategic interest of the US is limited in terms of the cost of defending Taiwan.
The article and many articles like it fail to explain the big picture. The US has indirect way to counter Chinese aggression. Sea blockade from distance where the US has military advantage would cut almost all sea traffic to China and isolate it from the world economy. Chinese are well aware of their position as a logistic cul-de-sac. The Belt and Road Initiative can be seen as long term strategic plan to go around this problem. It loses money but Chinese need it to work so they do it anyway.
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#3The US and Taiwan don't have military alliance. The Taiwan Relations Act is carefully worded to avoid any commitment and maintain strategic ambiguity and keep both sides in check. The strategic interest of the US is limited in terms of the cost of defending Taiwan. The article and many articles like it fail to explain the big picture. The US has indirect way to counter Chinese aggression. Sea blockade from distance w…
No doubt the US could blockade China. But given a big percentage of their trade is with the US, it involves a lot of pain and certain recession for the US as a consequence. It would hurt the US just about as much as China. A Pyric victory?
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#4As an amateur military historian (specializing in WW2 in the Pacific), the salient things are:
- WW2 was a contest to the death of ideologies that happened after the USA became isolationist and weak (Dr. Hansen)
- today, the USA is not overtly isolationist, however their loyalty to Taiwan, HK, etc. is suspect. The USA is weak on aircraft inventory - the F-22 fleet rounds off to zero, same with the F-35. Way to go, military procurement officers!
- The CCP is brittle - they may go nuclear if facing a loss since they never back down or take no for an answer
- Taiwan could plan to defend itself. It already has enough F-16s (unless surprise-striked), it just needs to give every citizen a MANPAD and a rifle.
- Although CCP is building a navy to rival the USA, the USA is ready today and could blockade China and overwhlem the 9-dash islands with cruise missiles or ICBMs.
- the one advantage of a war with China is that the USA would have a free pass to rain missiles on North Korea
Interesting times!
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#5The US and Taiwan don't have military alliance. The Taiwan Relations Act is carefully worded to avoid any commitment and maintain strategic ambiguity and keep both sides in check. The strategic interest of the US is limited in terms of the cost of defending Taiwan. The article and many articles like it fail to explain the big picture. The US has indirect way to counter Chinese aggression. Sea blockade from distance w…
No doubt the US could blockade China. But given a big percentage of their trade is with the US, it involves a lot of pain and certain recession for the US as a consequence. It would hurt the US just about as much as China. A Pyric victory?
Typical modern war is net loss for every participant.
The US could probably do without China but US partners would not. Australia, Japan, South Korea etc. would at some point break rank.
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#6The US and Taiwan don't have military alliance. The Taiwan Relations Act is carefully worded to avoid any commitment and maintain strategic ambiguity and keep both sides in check. The strategic interest of the US is limited in terms of the cost of defending Taiwan. The article and many articles like it fail to explain the big picture. The US has indirect way to counter Chinese aggression. Sea blockade from distance w…
Pearl Harbor was partially a response to economic strangulation, countries have gone to war over economic isolation.
Blockading a nuclear power with ICBM and hypersonic missile is the same as claiming the guard at checkpoint Charlie is a USSR deterrent
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#7The US and Taiwan don't have military alliance. The Taiwan Relations Act is carefully worded to avoid any commitment and maintain strategic ambiguity and keep both sides in check. The strategic interest of the US is limited in terms of the cost of defending Taiwan. The article and many articles like it fail to explain the big picture. The US has indirect way to counter Chinese aggression. Sea blockade from distance w…
No doubt the US could blockade China. But given a big percentage of their trade is with the US, it involves a lot of pain and certain recession for the US as a consequence. It would hurt the US just about as much as China. A Pyric victory?
Blockading a country on the 'world-island' is a pointless task.
The US is a sea-power, China is a land-power. As a land-power already situated on the 'world-island' China has no need of a huge SEA-going Navy. All it needs is a bunch of anti-ship missiles.
Meanwhile, the US that lives on the peripheral 'americas-island' is powerless without a means to reach the 'world-island' where all the action is.
See Mackinder and GeoPolitics.
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#8This is such a wacky headline. How on earth could the U.S. successfully dominate China? Even if we threaten them with tons of nukes, kill millions, and dominate them for a short time, there's no way that is sustainable. If small groups of rebels in Afghanistan can successfully resist U.S. dominance, it's almost ridiculous to believe that we could do so in China.
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#9As an amateur military historian (specializing in WW2 in the Pacific), the salient things are: - WW2 was a contest to the death of ideologies that happened after the USA became isolationist and weak (Dr. Hansen) - today, the USA is not overtly isolationist, however their loyalty to Taiwan, HK, etc. is suspect. The USA is weak on aircraft inventory - the F-22 fleet rounds off to zero, same with the F-35. Way to go, mi…
While the U.S. may have been able to completely dominate another country in WW2, I don't see how that could happen today. Even assuming the U.S., with their military might, could take control of the Chinese government, I don't believe it would last. When the U.S. beat Japan, they were able to control the messaging and media for years, effectively training the newer generation that this was all in their best interest. With the internet and the pourus information walls, rebels could easily organize and be a never-ending challenge to any lasting dominance.
Re: How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China
#10As an amateur military historian (specializing in WW2 in the Pacific), the salient things are: - WW2 was a contest to the death of ideologies that happened after the USA became isolationist and weak (Dr. Hansen) - today, the USA is not overtly isolationist, however their loyalty to Taiwan, HK, etc. is suspect. The USA is weak on aircraft inventory - the F-22 fleet rounds off to zero, same with the F-35. Way to go, mi…
While the U.S. may have been able to completely dominate another country in WW2, I don't see how that could happen today. Even assuming the U.S., with their military might, could take control of the Chinese government, I don't believe it would last. When the U.S. beat Japan, they were able to control the messaging and media for years, effectively training the newer generation that this was all in their best interest.…
>>When the U.S. beat Japan, they were able to control the messaging and media for years
"Look at what happened after the war. Douglas MacArthur ordered the divine emperor to quit being God, and he did, making a speech saying he was just an ordinary person. So after 1946 he wasn't God anymore." - Haruki Murakami, in Kafka on the Shore