Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California • Hacker News Board

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#71

Post by ProblemFactory » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:09 PM UTC

i_am_proteus wrote: post #37

CPLX wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I don't know how to tell you guys, but from the perspective of an east coaster, the entire peninsula (including SF) looks like this. It feels like some kind of parallel universe where nothing makes sense. Like I hear about a housing crisis in SF but I go there and there are supermarkets surrounded by parking lots in the middle of the city. There are literal big-box stores like you'd see in the suburbs adjacen…

There I was, thinking I was the only one. It's insane. When I first got here from the east coast, I thought maybe there was some reason involving earthquake codes. And then I learned. I used to live in NYC, a city that's had its own difficulties adding new housing, corruption in the permitting process, considering too many areas "historic." But the Bay Area is something completely different. It seems that everyone wh…

> If zoning restrictions were relaxed, could house prices collapse?

I don't see how that could be the case. The property value of a plot of land on which a 50, or even 5 story building can be built is much higher than the property value of a single-family home.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#72

Post by umvi » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:09 PM UTC

cryptozeus wrote: post #67

If you notice how new york and surrounding area is supported by very good transportation. West coast does not have that and on top of that there are no huge building being built outside sf. I wonder if this is due to earthquakes. Either way I think this issues and mixed with tech job demand is going to push remote culture more and more.

> I wonder if this is due to earthquakes.

Could be, but Japan has lots of earthquakes too, and they don't seem to mind building huge/tall buildings.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#73

Post by hlarsen » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:10 PM UTC

markbnj wrote: post #59

btilly wrote: post #51

I have suggested this before, and I'll suggest this again. The whole problem could be solved if we gave people the choice of voting where they work rather than where they live. Currently every city wants all the businesses that they can get because businesses generate lots of tax revenues. Cities do not want apartments because that doesn't generate revenue, and locals object on the basis of NIMBYism. But when everyon…

> Cities do not want apartments because that doesn't generate revenue The property owners still pay tax on it don't they? I'm sure it is less lucrative per square foot than commercial development, but I assume it is still better than the revenue from the closed furniture store and parking lot, and after all you need people to patronize businesses.

correct, however the city now has to support these residents with police, firefighters, hospitals, and the like. everyone who works in an office goes home and a different city has to worry about it.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#74

Post by nostrademons » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:10 PM UTC

i_am_proteus wrote: post #37

CPLX wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I don't know how to tell you guys, but from the perspective of an east coaster, the entire peninsula (including SF) looks like this. It feels like some kind of parallel universe where nothing makes sense. Like I hear about a housing crisis in SF but I go there and there are supermarkets surrounded by parking lots in the middle of the city. There are literal big-box stores like you'd see in the suburbs adjacen…

There I was, thinking I was the only one. It's insane. When I first got here from the east coast, I thought maybe there was some reason involving earthquake codes. And then I learned. I used to live in NYC, a city that's had its own difficulties adding new housing, corruption in the permitting process, considering too many areas "historic." But the Bay Area is something completely different. It seems that everyone wh…

I moved here from Boston.

It honestly didn't seem all that insane to me, because Boston is crazier in nearly every dimension. The peninsula at least has 3-lane boulevards with a reasonable road hierarchy and traffic light timings. Boston has cowpaths branching off in every direction, controlled by stop signs that can literally back up for miles. The peninsula has block after block of Eichlers on 1/4 acre lots. Boston has mid-rise row-houses on landfill in the Back Bay, quickly trailing off to historic old houses on 1.5 acre lots 10 minutes outside of the city. The peninsula refuses to let you put in an in-law unit or cut down a redwood tree without going through an extensive permitting process. The Boston area might refuse to let you put in new window panes if you live in a historic house (my computer teacher lived in one from the 1730s, and it still had all the original glass - which back then was hand made and tended to flow like putty - because it was considered a historic property and she couldn't modify it). The peninsula is due for a natural disaster in the next 30 years. In Boston, as my wife puts it, every winter is a natural disaster. BART has a problem with homeless dudes and property crime. The Red Line has a problem with trains losing the 3rd rail and running 20 minutes late. Caltrain electrification is stuck in limbo. The Big Dig has ceiling tiles that fall down and kill people.

Of course, the flip side of this is that Boston hasn't grown since 1950, and is around the same size as its 1910 population. San Francisco will probably meet a similar fate when the tech boom peters out.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#75

Post by Karrot_Kream » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:10 PM UTC

hnaccy wrote: post #69

snuxoll wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Signs point to the 10 billionth (concurrently living) human being never being born, birth rates have begun to stabilize worldwide as more countries modernize. Remember, more educated populations with better health care reproduce less. It’s not an issue of limitless growth of the population, it’s an issue of the population consolidating into a smaller footprint (which from an ecological perspective is a Good Thing) an…

We're already over the carrying capacity if the world wants first world lifestyle.

What is "first world lifestyle"?

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#76

Post by hnaccy » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:12 PM UTC

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #75

hnaccy wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're already over the carrying capacity if the world wants first world lifestyle.

What is "first world lifestyle"?

The life style of a well-to-do member of America or Western Europe.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#77

Post by snuxoll » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:13 PM UTC

hnaccy wrote: post #69

snuxoll wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Signs point to the 10 billionth (concurrently living) human being never being born, birth rates have begun to stabilize worldwide as more countries modernize. Remember, more educated populations with better health care reproduce less. It’s not an issue of limitless growth of the population, it’s an issue of the population consolidating into a smaller footprint (which from an ecological perspective is a Good Thing) an…

We're already over the carrying capacity if the world wants first world lifestyle.

Debatable, a large issue is land use and for all the land we have here in the US alone large swathes of it are used for single family homes promoting horrible density. We dump carbon into the air, have less arable land, and destroy more natural habitats than necessary because of poor planning and regulation.

There is more issues to be solved, yes - but reversing wasteful land use is a HUGE component of preserving our planet and quality of life.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#78

Post by floren » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:14 PM UTC

ctdonath wrote: post #49

floren wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roll it out in say Rugby, ND and you'll even have an Empire Builder stop right there, with service to Seattle, Portland, Spokane, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Milwaukee, and Chicago!

Looked. Prolific lakefront opportunities, lots of suitable roads in place. Base town already there. LinkedIn shows >25000 tech jobs in the state, many well into the $100k range (remember, extremely low cost of living). Just need someone to (profitably!) take on making it easy to move there.

> LinkedIn shows >25000 tech jobs in the state, many well into the $100k range (remember, extremely low cost of living).

They don't even have to be in the state, right? Because the core concept was that a remote-working code-slinger could live anywhere.

Another neat point about Rugby: it's apparently got gigabit ethernet service through North Dakota Telephone Co, although you'll pay $220/mo for that service.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#79

Post by topmonk » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:14 PM UTC

pcwalton wrote: post #36

throwawaysea wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does humanity need to grow in population? That doesn't make sense and is an invalid assumption underlying what you're asking for here.

Because someone is going to have to care for an aging population. You can look at Japan for what happens when you have zero or negative population growth.

A giant ponzi scheme then? When it finally hits a brick wall, there are going to be that many more people on the earth to suffer the consequences. There has to be another way.

Re: Approaching Peak Housing Dysfunction in California

#80

Post by shrimp_emoji » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 9:15 PM UTC

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #43

ctdonath wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just spent 3 weeks in the US Midwest. There is plenty of land to use, thousands of square miles of empty rolling grassy plains. (Ex.: South Dakota averages 11 people per square mile.) Apply a little modern technology (solar/wind, water storage/purification, insulation, Starlink satellite internet) and nobody need complain of population density. There's a startup waiting to happen: self-sufficient high-tech prefab h…

Absolutely. Part of the solution is to figure out how to disaggregate knowledge economies. Why so many mostly digital companies insist on in-office work is absolutely beyond me.

I think it's because our telecomm tech still sucks. It's not as good as real life and it has bugs.

Until we can smoothly emulate meatspace with VR, I don't think you can replace face-to-face interaction. If you can't do that, then people will still want to be close to jobs and similar businesses, so they'll continue to urbanize in a natural distribution.

And even if you had your new VR tech with enough bandwidth to run it nicely, you'd still need to be able to provide it to your offworld coloni--I mean rural exclaves.