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‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

independent.co.uk

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Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#91

Post by magduf »

sametmax wrote: post #70

India is building more and more tensions, and it's really worrying me. They have 1.3 billions of people, living under an unbelievable social pressure (casts, diversity, religion, money...), on a land saturated by pollution with less and less water to drink. Reading this article, it seems possible they are running toward a gender crisis as well. Sex frustration is already a terrible thing there, and a big source of tr…

Well, assuming they don't get into a nuclear war, it sounds like things might work themselves out after a generation or two if they keep going like this. As you point out, they have a huge number of people; well, if they don't have many girls, after a couple of generations they're not going to have many children and the population will shrink drastically.

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#92

Post by hackathonguy »

cldellow wrote: post #28
hackathonguy wrote: post #10

The article doesn't indicate how the villages were sampled. Suppose a village has a birth rate of 8 babies a year (2 babies every 3 months). There's (roughly) a 50% chance the babies will be male and female, 25% chance that they're both female and 25% chance that they're both male. That means that if you're sampling from a district that has 1,000 villages (with the average birth rate of 2 babies / 3 months, roughly t…

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/dehradun/in-3-month... has a bit more info. You can find the census for Uttarkashi district at https://cdn.s3waas.gov.in/s3ef575e8837d065a1683c022d2077d342... Page 12 says there are 694 villages and 330,086 people in the district.

Ah! That sort of proves the point, doesn't it? 25% of 694 is 173, which is even higher than 132 villages where there were no female babies. That means there are actually more female babies than you'd predict in advance. Or is my math wrong somehow?

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#93

Post by sametmax »

magduf wrote: post #91
sametmax wrote: post #70

India is building more and more tensions, and it's really worrying me. They have 1.3 billions of people, living under an unbelievable social pressure (casts, diversity, religion, money...), on a land saturated by pollution with less and less water to drink. Reading this article, it seems possible they are running toward a gender crisis as well. Sex frustration is already a terrible thing there, and a big source of tr…

Well, assuming they don't get into a nuclear war, it sounds like things might work themselves out after a generation or two if they keep going like this. As you point out, they have a huge number of people; well, if they don't have many girls, after a couple of generations they're not going to have many children and the population will shrink drastically.

I bet on thirsty enraged desperate people not keeping their pain to themself.

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#95

Post by dang »

modi15 wrote: post #47

Cherry picked data. Sensationalist headlines. Top of HN. There are a lot of things horrible about christian missionaries but their internet propaganda division is killing it.

Ok, but please don't post flamebait comments to HN and certainly not religious flamewar.

If you think a story is bad for the site, the thing to do is flag it, not post comments that only make things worse. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. Would you mind reviewing them?

Edit: you've posted nationalistic flamebait in the past too, unfortunately. We ban accounts that do that, so please don't.

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#96

Post by belorn »

xiphias2 wrote: post #86
tomatotomato37 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that was probably a random percentage, but for a different perspective a 0.001% chance of an airline crash would still result in an accident each day just because of the sheer amount of air traffic, and that's just for one of the world's more "exotic" modes of transport. In a world of 7 billion people things that should happen extremely rarely still happen every day/month/year only because the dice get rolled…

1/2^216 is 9e-66, so it's closer to 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000009%

I think that 9e-66 is rather irrelevant.

If I flipped 216 coins, the exact sequence that I get back also has a probability of 9e-66.

If I flipped 532 coins, the probability that I get any specific subset that share the same side is the sum of all probability that gives that result.

What we know is that 132 out 694 villages, with the average number of born children for 3 months being 1.6, had zero girls. The other 562 villages with unknown average of children had girls. As such we can conclude that the probability must be the sum of all sequences of births that results in 132 out of 694 villages having exactly no girls born under the period of 3 months.

The probability of the 132 villages is thus undefined as we simply do not have enough data on the spectrum of sequences. Based on the global census of 943 females per 1,000 males we can suspect a bias and create a ball park guess, but there is simply not enough to say an exact number like 9e-66.

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#97

Post by sbmthakur »

Female foetecide has been a big problem in India and it's being tackled by the Government as well as the Civil society. However, this particular story has a lot of inconsistency and doesn't provide a true picture. The problems with it are being actively discussed here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaSpeaks/comments/cgvumc/we_need...

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#98

Post by jacobush »

xiphias2 wrote: post #87
sametmax wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may results in many terrible problems: - sexual frustration, which is already booming in India, could increase tenfold. Sexually frustrated males can lead to being apathetic or aggressive, none of which is good for society. - more competition means bigger delta between the winners and the losers. And they already have a large money gap. Making this difference wider can only build more social tensions. - not a bi…

> not a biologist, but I imagine this affects the gene pool, and overall (including social) diversity as well. - I wouldn't worry about gene pool diversity in India (I agree with the first two statements though): ,,A 2005 study from Rutgers University theorized that the pre-1492 native populations of the Americas are the descendants of only 70 individuals who crossed the land bridge between Asia and North America.''…

You will find the same population bottlenecks in India. It's really quite extreme:

https://caravanmagazine.in/science-technology/what-genetics-...

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#99

Post by modi15 »

dang wrote: post #95
modi15 wrote: post #47

Cherry picked data. Sensationalist headlines. Top of HN. There are a lot of things horrible about christian missionaries but their internet propaganda division is killing it.

Ok, but please don't post flamebait comments to HN and certainly not religious flamewar. If you think a story is bad for the site, the thing to do is flag it, not post comments that only make things worse. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html . Would you mind reviewing them? Edit: you've posted nationalistic flamebait in the past too, unfortunately. We ban accounts that do…

Apologies.

I didnt intend for religious flamewar. It is my position that these news are sponsored by christian missionaries. I thought reporting the same in comments is the best way to highlight it. How else do you suggest I claim my position ?

Not sure which of my posts constitute nationalistic flamebait. If you could highlight ill try to steer clear. Thx.

Re: ‘No girls born’ for past three months in area of India covering 132 villages

#100

Post by dang »

modi15 wrote: post #99
dang wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, but please don't post flamebait comments to HN and certainly not religious flamewar. If you think a story is bad for the site, the thing to do is flag it, not post comments that only make things worse. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html . Would you mind reviewing them? Edit: you've posted nationalistic flamebait in the past too, unfortunately. We ban accounts that do…

Apologies. I didnt intend for religious flamewar. It is my position that these news are sponsored by christian missionaries. I thought reporting the same in comments is the best way to highlight it. How else do you suggest I claim my position ? Not sure which of my posts constitute nationalistic flamebait. If you could highlight ill try to steer clear. Thx.

The way to steer clear of flamebait is to provide factual information and avoid pejoratives. Your comment upthread was low on information and high on pejoratives. Flip that ratio and it will help a lot.
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