>I can't tell if you're serious, but assuming you are,
I assume he is, given he is Greg Brockman the CTO and a co-founder. I know Sam Altman is similarly optimistic, having told me on multiple occasions something along the lines of 'I can't focus on anything else right now' which in context I very much took as 'this presently consumes my waking thoughts and I only have time for it'.
This sort of drive is great, but I don't think it necessarily makes it true. Mr. Altman is financially independent, he needn't worry about things like rent or putting food on his table and I imagine Mr. Brockman is also independently wealthy (or at least has several years of a cushion if his OpenAI salary were to suddenly dry up), perhaps not as much though, given his previous position at Stripe.
These two, and perhaps other members of the team, can be overly optimistic about their passion. Both of them have this view, and they both co-founded OpenAI. This optimism and enthusiasm, and interesting project successes so far, certainly gives them steam and attention but how many aspiring athletes think they're going to to get drafted for tens of millions of dollars when in reality they might be lucky to get scouted by a college, or lucky to get drafted to a European or Asian league and not necessarily a major league US team. How many musicians think they'll get into Juilliard and go on to some top-tier symphony/orchestra, or will be the next Country/Rock/Rap/Pop star that takes the world by force, only to end up playing music with their friends at some dive bar a few times a year despite their enthusiasm and skill?
I think a major problem OpenAI has, which I've expressed to Altman, is that they suffer what Silicon Valley in general does. They are myopic, their ranks are composed of people that are 100% behind AI/AGI, they dream about AGI, they want to create AGI, they absolutely think we will have AGI, they want AGI with every fiber of their being. They're high in the sky with apple pie about AGI.
But who's going "hey wait a minute guys" and climbing up a ladder to grab them by the cuff of their pants to pull them back down to the floor and tie a tether to their leg? As far as I know, no one under their employ.
I think OpenAI needs to bring in some outsiders, have a team internally that roles a sanity check, and probably a board member as well. I think it is very dangerous to only have people working on your project that are overly optimistic. It reminds me somewhat of the movie Slingblade, a lawnmower is taken to be repaired and the folks don't know why, they present it to Billy Bob Thornton's Character that has some sort of mental deficit, he looks at it briefly and states "It ain't got no gas". He has a different perspective of the world, he sees things differently, this allows him to see something that the others overlooked. While gobs of gobblygook code and maths is a far different thing than a lawn mower not having fuel, I still think there is a danger in having one of the greatest STEM projects mankind has ever attempted only staffed by a bunch of coders, in a field that is effectively new, that largely have the same training and same life experiences.
Here's a portion of what I said to Mr. Altman back in May of this year and I think it applies more than ever, that isn't exactly related to this comment chain but maybe posting it here will get it seen by more people at OpenAI:
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You are aware, you guys are in a bubble there. People in the Bay Area are at least peripherally aware of what Artificial Intelligence is presently and could be. For the bulk of the country, and the majority of the world, people are largely clueless. If you say ‘artificial intelligence’ people either have no idea what you are talking about (even people in their 20s and 30s which was shocking to me) or something like HAL 9000, Skynet, Colossus: The Forbid Project, etc come to mind. I think the industry, and OpenAI especially, are missing out on an opportunity to help educate people on what AI can and will be, how AI can be benevolent and even beneficial.
OpenAI is missing out on an opportunity here. While the bulk of resources obviously need to go to actually pursuing research, there is so much you could be doing to educate the masses, to generate an interest in the technology, to get more people passionate about/thinking about machine learning, AI and all of the potential applications.
...possible examples given...
You need to demystify AI Sam, you need to engage people outside of CS/Startup culture, engage people other than academics and venture capitalists.
...more examples given...
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I will point out in that same exchange I told him that I thought raising the billions OpenAI would need is laughable, well I'll take a healthy bite out of my hat. They managed to raise a billion from a single source, bravo.
I had the pleasure of visiting OpenAI towards the end of Spring '18 and certainly from what I saw they are very serious towards their goal and aren't joking about believing 100% that AGI is an obtainable goal within their reach.
It's also worth noting I applied to OpenAI in the past year, post my visit, for their "Research Assistant, Policy" position and that I was somewhat miffed by the form rejection which, from outside of STEM, seems very cold:
>We know that our process is far from perfect, so please take this primarily as a statement that we have limited interview bandwidth, and must make hard choices. We'd welcome another application in no fewer than 12 months - the best way to stand out is to complete a major project or produce an important result in that time
I still haven't a clue as to what major project or important result, that I can achieve in researching policy for Artificial Intelligence given that:
- Artificial intelligence doesn't exist
- No one has created policy for it outside of science fiction
I may have not been the most qualified, which is fine, as I lacked the 4-year degree they had listed as a requirement, but a human being never once talked to me, never once asked me a question, just a web form and a copy-paste email with my first name inserted.
We don't always need someone with a stack of degrees, that is 100% pro-AI, that has programming experience, to help research policy and presumably lay the groundwork for both OpenAI and the industry. I think a team like that should only involve 10-20% individuals that are experienced in the field, I think you need a diverse team, with diverse experience, with diverse backgrounds. If an AGI is developed, it won't just serve the programmers of the world, it won't just have an impact on their life, STEM folks are far outnumbered by those with no STEM backgrounds.
Who is representing the common human in this? Who's going "are you sure this is a good idea" "should we really be training it with that data" "is it really in the best interests of humanity to allow that company/entity to invest or to license this to these types of causes?"
But hey, what do I know?