I'm skeptical that AGI will exist on our planet in my lifetime. I've no doubt that it exists elsewhere in the galaxy. If an alien species does come to visit some day, I think it more likely than not that it'll be an AGI.
Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
241–250 of 623 posts
Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…
> calling it "pre-AGI" pretentious to the level of delusion. I don't think you know what you are talking about. Do you do Deep Learning? If you are not actively engaged in the field, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss others who are (especially not others who are at the top of the field). That being said, you brought up some interesting points, even if I think your overall position is wrong--I think OpenAI is definite…
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> calling it "pre-AGI" pretentious to the level of delusion.
>I don't think you know what you are talking about. Do you do Deep Learning? If you are not actively engaged in the field, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss others who are (especially not others who are at the top of the field).
I do (or at least I try, I get money for my attempts though) and I concur with calling it delusion. So does Francois Cholet. So does Hinton to some degree, so does the founder of deepmind (or at least they did in 2017: https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/17/geoffrey-hinton-and-demis... ).
I want to like OpenAI, I think they did the right thing with GPT-2 and I give them a lot of credit for publishing things. That being said, I remain skeptical about AGI, highly skeptical about AGI being feasible, or the thing to worry about. I always make the argument that either research towards controlling an AGI/AGI alignment is a techified version of reserach into the problem of good global governance (in which case it is an interesting problem that desperately needs solving), or it is useless (because no matter how nicely you control the AGI, a non-accountable elite within the current system, the less-than-perfectly aligned government etc. will strongarm you into giving control to THEM before you come close to deploying it) or it is delusional (because you think you are smart enough to build AGI without these elites finding out AND smart and/or wise enough to do what is best for humanity).
Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
>It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable How could it possibly not be achievable? We know for certain general intelligence is physically realizable - we exist.
I'm not advocating for the opposing view (or any view) here, and this is just informational, but since you did specifically ask how... If you want to talk about philosophy (including philosophy of mind but also more basic stuff like materialism vs. dualism), then it's not for certain. I'd hazard a guess most engineers are materialists and reductionists, and from that point of view, yes, it seems like a slam dunk that…
It doesn't matter if the place where the phenomenon of consciousness takes place is "physical" or not. If the brain can interface with it, why shouldn't machines be able to?
Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#244I don’t understand how there can be no comments regarding the fatal flaw of AGI which is that it will completely ruin the economics of the world. The world is the way it is now because humans are the only source of intelligent signal processing. That’s the only reason why humans enjoy the limited rights and privileges that they do. That’s the only reason why life has gotten better and better with advancing medicine and so on. This is a fundamental principle that cannot be escaped. It doesn’t matter how you slice it. But people defer everything to “ubi will work out somehow” or “nah humans will never be replaced.” Bringing god-like super-intelligent beings online is a fundamentally stupid thing to do. And preventing their development, relative to how disastrous their development would be, is very easy.
I have made many predictions here on HN and they all have outlined that cloud computing would be the substrate from which AGI will spring. Now we see this announcement. There is a reason why OpenAI is making a deal like this with a very large cloud compute vendor: it’s because I’m right. And that means I’m probably also right in saying that we can stop this if we want to. You can’t just build a computer in your bad yard. And the internet is very fragile. Some simple regulation and global awareness and initiative could control what comes out of fabs and shut down the infrastructure necessary for cloud computing. It would be very easy relative to the size of the problem.
Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
(I work at OpenAI.) It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. We've talked about why we think it might be: https://medium.com/syncedreview/openai-founder-short-term-ag... , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHCSNsLKHfM And we certainly have more of a plan for building it than warp drives :). EDIT: I personally think the case for near-term AGI is strong enough that it'd be hard for me work on any other pro…
AGI will the the worst thing that has ever happened to humanity. Even if you can’t see that, you can see that it has the potential to be very bad. I know this because OpenAI literature always stresses that AGI has to be guided and developed by the right people because the alternative is rather unpleasant. So essentially its a gamble and you know it. With everyone’s lives at stake. But instead of asking everyone wheth…
This argument is akin to the argument that the LHC might create a black hole that will destroy the world.
"Scientists might do something that will destroy us all and I know this because I read a few sci-fi novels and read a few popsci articles but am otherwise ignorant about what the scientists are actually doing. But since the stakes are so high (which I can't show), on the chance that I'm right (which is likely 0) we should abandon everything."
Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#246Congrats on the investment, but this release reads like a parody. I believe that building a beneficial warp-drive engine will be the most important technological development in human history, with the potential to shape the trajectory of humanity. The aliens we're sure to encounter will be capable of mastering more fields than any one human — like a tool which combines the skills of Curie, Turing, and Bach. An alien…
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Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…
>we are not even close to achieving insect-level intelligence Then again I don't know many insects that drive cars, beat the champions at chess and go or similar.
The difference is that insects can perform a wide variety of tasks needed for their survival, but all "AI" created by humans so far can only perform a single task each.
Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#248I don’t understand how there can be no comments regarding the fatal flaw of AGI which is that it will completely ruin the economics of the world. The world is the way it is now because humans are the only source of intelligent signal processing. That’s the only reason why humans enjoy the limited rights and privileges that they do. That’s the only reason why life has gotten better and better with advancing medicine a…
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Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…
If AGI is achievable (seems likely given brains are all over the place in nature) and achieving it will have consequences that dwarf everything else then doesn't it make sense to focus on it? Yes, historically people were way too optimistic and generally went down AI rabbit holes that went nowhere, but two years before the Wright flyer flew, the Wright brothers themselves said it was 50 years out (and others were sti…
This is especially true considering we're talking about software vs. hardware (airplane). A few, or even one, brilliant mind(s) could make a break thru in AGI in a matter of months.
Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
(I work at OpenAI.) It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. We've talked about why we think it might be: https://medium.com/syncedreview/openai-founder-short-term-ag... , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHCSNsLKHfM And we certainly have more of a plan for building it than warp drives :). EDIT: I personally think the case for near-term AGI is strong enough that it'd be hard for me work on any other pro…
> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…
Allow me to repost Altman's wager:
- If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D)
- If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns
- If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture all economic value
- If OpenAI achieves AGI and you did not invest in it, you get negative infinite returns, because all other economic value is obliterated by AGI
Therefore, one must invest (or in this case, "work on the most important problem of our time").
(And yes, this tongue-in-cheek.)