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Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#191

Post by RIMR »

anchpop wrote: post #155
RIMR wrote: post #134

Can we actually expect OpenAI to remain "open" with investments like this getting dumped into the project? I'm still waiting for the 1.5G GPT-2 set to get released, but they're still going with that "too dangerous for society" BS that they're using to get journalists' attention...

They need to prove it's safe for society before releasing it. If they don't believe it is then not releasing it is of course the smart thing to do. Furthermore, anyone else in the future who creates something they think might be dangerous now has a better argument, because they can point to OpenAI playing it safe and say "I'm just doing the same thing"

I think you're making a silly mistake actually giving this "too dangerous for society" line any validity.

I understand that this tech could be used for nefarious purposes, but this isn't world-ending tech. This is just hard to differentiate from human writing...

The choice to keep their "too powerful model" unreleased is more an attempt to stoke sensationalism out of journalists eager to report on "The AI too dangerous to release" than it is actually an earnest attempt at protecting society.

The dangerous rogue-AI is a Hollywood trope. We don't live in the Ghost In the Shell universe, we live in reality, and a text-generating algorithm isn't particularly dangerous when you think about it.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#192

Post by nradov »

justinhj wrote: post #168
ALittleLight wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how it could be. What can insect brains do that we couldn't get AI to do?

Pretty much everything that insects do is beyond our current AI and engineering tech. Ignoring the "engineering" feats that biological beings perform such as replication, respiration and turning other plants and creatures into their own energy source, their behaviour is very sophisticated. Imagine programming a drone to perform the work of a foraging Bee, using a computer that fits into a brain the size of a grain of…

Bees also have sophisticated communication skills to tell other bees where to find food.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#193

Post by pron »

leesec wrote: post #188
pron wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…

>OpenAI is not actually building AGI. Maybe it hopes that the things it is working on could be the path to an eventual AGI. OpenAI knows this, as does Microsoft. Yes they are? They are making breakthroughs/incremental advances that required to get there, and building components along the way. It would be like you saying well Henry Ford isn't building a vehicle, he's just building a wheel, and a tire, and an engine, e…

> They are making breakthroughs/incremental advances that required to get there

They don't know that. We have no idea what's required to achieve AI. Now I don't know how long before Ford actually built cars he started saying he's building cars, but if Wikipedia is to be believed, it could not have been more than three-four years. Also, when he started building cars, he pretty much knew what's required to build them. This is not the case for AI.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#194

Post by breck »

pron wrote: post #80
gdb wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I work at OpenAI.) It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. We've talked about why we think it might be: https://medium.com/syncedreview/openai-founder-short-term-ag... , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHCSNsLKHfM And we certainly have more of a plan for building it than warp drives :). EDIT: I personally think the case for near-term AGI is strong enough that it'd be hard for me work on any other pro…

> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…

> calling it "pre-AGI" pretentious to the level of delusion.

I don't think you know what you are talking about. Do you do Deep Learning? If you are not actively engaged in the field, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss others who are (especially not others who are at the top of the field).

That being said, you brought up some interesting points, even if I think your overall position is wrong--I think OpenAI is definitely going to hit "pre-AGI" if not AGI, and I do this stuff all day long.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#195

Post by adrianmonk »

thfuran wrote: post #147
gdb wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I work at OpenAI.) It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. We've talked about why we think it might be: https://medium.com/syncedreview/openai-founder-short-term-ag... , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHCSNsLKHfM And we certainly have more of a plan for building it than warp drives :). EDIT: I personally think the case for near-term AGI is strong enough that it'd be hard for me work on any other pro…

>It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable How could it possibly not be achievable? We know for certain general intelligence is physically realizable - we exist.

I'm not advocating for the opposing view (or any view) here, and this is just informational, but since you did specifically ask how...

If you want to talk about philosophy (including philosophy of mind but also more basic stuff like materialism vs. dualism), then it's not for certain.

I'd hazard a guess most engineers are materialists and reductionists, and from that point of view, yes, it seems like a slam dunk that it's possible. But some people believe the mind or consciousness is not a purely physical phenomenon. You can make philosophical arguments both directions, but the point is just that there isn't exactly universal consensus about it.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#196

Post by lelima »

gdb wrote: post #140
tosh wrote: post #64

New York Times has a bit more context > Mr. Nadella said Microsoft would not necessarily invest that billion dollars all at once. It could be doled out over the course of a decade or more. Microsoft is investing dollars that will be fed back into its own business, as OpenAI purchases computing power from the software giant, and the collaboration between the two companies could yield a wide array of technologies. http…

(I work at OpenAI.) > It could be doled out over the course of a decade or more. The NYT article is misleading here. We'll definitely spend the $1B within 5 years, and maybe much faster. We certainly do plan to be a big Azure customer though!

>>"We certainly do plan to be a big Azure customer though!"

That's great, one question where can I use GYM or universe in the cloud with the render() option.

I've spend many hours trying to set up the environment in cloud [1] without success.

[1]: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/40195740/how-to-run-open...

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#197

Post by testvox »

mattnewton wrote: post #125
wetpaws wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need planes to flap the wings in order to fly.

But you do need to understand that they generate lift, and be able to mathematically describe something that generates lift. The Wright brothers wrote to the Smithsonian in 1899 and got back, among other things, workable equations for lift and drag. I think people think back propagation is the metaphorical lift equation here and we just need a “manufacturing” advancement (ie, more compute and techniques for using it)…

Yeah but we didn't need to fully understand how animal wings actually work, we just needed to understand what they do (generate lift). Similarly I don't understand the focus in this conversation on fully understanding the protein interactions that make neurons work. We just need to understand what neurons do. And I thought what they do is actually pretty simple due to the "all or nothing" principle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-or-none_law

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#198

Post by erikpukinskis »

leesec wrote: post #188
pron wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…

>OpenAI is not actually building AGI. Maybe it hopes that the things it is working on could be the path to an eventual AGI. OpenAI knows this, as does Microsoft. Yes they are? They are making breakthroughs/incremental advances that required to get there, and building components along the way. It would be like you saying well Henry Ford isn't building a vehicle, he's just building a wheel, and a tire, and an engine, e…

To my knowledge Henry Ford didn’t start off selling wagon wheels.

Also when he started there were working automobiles already.

The fact that no one knows how to make an AGI, doesn’t make it a bad goal. But OP is right, if you think you know the timeframe it will arrive in, you have no idea what kind of problem you’re dealing with.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#199

Post by nradov »

eeeficus wrote: post #164
ALittleLight wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how it could be. What can insect brains do that we couldn't get AI to do?

In terms of intelligence, there isn’t. What prevents us from actually building a uber-insect is miniaturization, self sustaining energy production of some kind and reproduction in an artificially built system. I guess it would be possible to demonstrate insect level intelligence by actually replacing an insect brain with an artificial one.

Your guess would be wrong. Our actual level of AGI development is maybe more on the level of a flatworm. Complex, social insects like bees are still far beyond our ability to simulate.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#200

Post by aliswe »

hootan wrote: post #69

I'm not a genius. But, it was 2015 when Microsoft announced that, MS I never heard about it's release. In that time I said, MS will move towards open source, because he realized that it's a winning and correct strategy for software distribution. It didn't take long that MS aquired GitHub with 8M$. His team foundation was a failure, he tried to get a good one. But He also took control over all the source codes, and th…

Ms linux distro ... Are you talking about this:

https://wccftech.com/microsoft-20-linux-based-distrowindows-...

Or this

https://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2018/04/microsoft-linux-custom-k...

?

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