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Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#141

Post by naiveai »

simonebrunozzi wrote: post #97
gdb wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I work at OpenAI.) It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. We've talked about why we think it might be: https://medium.com/syncedreview/openai-founder-short-term-ag... , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHCSNsLKHfM And we certainly have more of a plan for building it than warp drives :). EDIT: I personally think the case for near-term AGI is strong enough that it'd be hard for me work on any other pro…

I think you guys are genuinely trying to better humanity, I have no reason to doubt that. I wish you realized how big and thick of a bubble you live in, and how your thinking is so heavily influenced by it. My humble advice to you and your team is to spend more time with real people, with real problems. Or perhaps people from other parts of the world, that haven't been brainwashed by the Silicon Valley jargon just ye…

Frankly, this comment is simply rude and ineffectual. It completely unnecessarily disrespects the good people in the OpenAI team. No one doesn't qualify as "real people".

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#142

Post by [deleted] »

mattnewton wrote: post #125
wetpaws wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need planes to flap the wings in order to fly.

But you do need to understand that they generate lift, and be able to mathematically describe something that generates lift. The Wright brothers wrote to the Smithsonian in 1899 and got back, among other things, workable equations for lift and drag. I think people think back propagation is the metaphorical lift equation here and we just need a “manufacturing” advancement (ie, more compute and techniques for using it)…

[deleted]

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#143

Post by tosh »

gdb wrote: post #140
tosh wrote: post #64

New York Times has a bit more context > Mr. Nadella said Microsoft would not necessarily invest that billion dollars all at once. It could be doled out over the course of a decade or more. Microsoft is investing dollars that will be fed back into its own business, as OpenAI purchases computing power from the software giant, and the collaboration between the two companies could yield a wide array of technologies. http…

(I work at OpenAI.) > It could be doled out over the course of a decade or more. The NYT article is misleading here. We'll definitely spend the $1B within 5 years, and maybe much faster. We certainly do plan to be a big Azure customer though!

Thanks for the clarification gdb!

excited about the announcement.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#144

Post by whatshisface »

est31 wrote: post #121
testvox wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and we are not even close to achieving insect-level intelligence. Aren't we close to this? Most insects only have a few million neurons in their central nervous system, so we can model their intelligence in real time at least. Maybe we still lack the tools for training such networks into useful configurations?

Yes, if you assume the technical model of each neuron only having one scalar output bfloat16, then we could simulate insect brains right now. But the technical neuron model of sum of inputs plus sigmoid activation function is only an approximation. Neurons communicate with each other with a multitude of neurotransmitters and receptors [1]. As a cell, each neuron is a complex organism of its own that undergoes transcr…

Lattice QCD is used for sub-nuclear simulations, proteins are studied with much more tractable methods based on regular quantum mechanics.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#145

Post by sp332 »

kuzehanka wrote: post #17
gdb wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I work at OpenAI.) Quite the opposite — this is an investment!

Is all this talk of AGI some kind of marketing meme that you guys are tolerating? We haven't figured out sentiment analysis or convnets resilient to single pixel attacks, and here is a page talking about the god damned singularity. As an industry, we've already burned through a bunch of buzzwords that are now meaningless marketing-speak. 'ML', 'AI', 'NLP', 'cognitive computing'. Are we going for broke and adding AGI…

Sentiment analysis is at 96% and increasing rapidly. http://nlpprogress.com/english/sentiment_analysis.html

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#146

Post by wyldfire »

omarhaneef wrote: post #110
pron wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…

Not taking a side on the over/under for AGI, but perhaps you are also acquainted with this little gem: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/38e6/1d9a65aa483ad0fb4a219f... Shannon, Minsky, and McCarthy!

It's an interesting dream team. But AFAICT this is only a proposal. Did the proposed series of studies take place? If so what was the outcome?

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#147

Post by thfuran »

gdb wrote: post #76
pron wrote: post #40

Congrats on the investment, but this release reads like a parody. I believe that building a beneficial warp-drive engine will be the most important technological development in human history, with the potential to shape the trajectory of humanity. The aliens we're sure to encounter will be capable of mastering more fields than any one human — like a tool which combines the skills of Curie, Turing, and Bach. An alien…

(I work at OpenAI.) It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. We've talked about why we think it might be: https://medium.com/syncedreview/openai-founder-short-term-ag... , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHCSNsLKHfM And we certainly have more of a plan for building it than warp drives :). EDIT: I personally think the case for near-term AGI is strong enough that it'd be hard for me work on any other pro…

>It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable

How could it possibly not be achievable? We know for certain general intelligence is physically realizable - we exist.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#148

Post by wyldfire »

est31 wrote: post #121
testvox wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and we are not even close to achieving insect-level intelligence. Aren't we close to this? Most insects only have a few million neurons in their central nervous system, so we can model their intelligence in real time at least. Maybe we still lack the tools for training such networks into useful configurations?

Yes, if you assume the technical model of each neuron only having one scalar output bfloat16, then we could simulate insect brains right now. But the technical neuron model of sum of inputs plus sigmoid activation function is only an approximation. Neurons communicate with each other with a multitude of neurotransmitters and receptors [1]. As a cell, each neuron is a complex organism of its own that undergoes transcr…

> we could simulate insect brains right now

AFAICT this suggests that we have the computational power but wouldn't it also be a significant challenge to create an accurate model for the brain simulation?

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#149

Post by ALittleLight »

runT1ME wrote: post #100
pron wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…

>we are not even close to achieving insect-level intelligence. Is this true? Is there an insect turing test?

I don't see how it could be. What can insect brains do that we couldn't get AI to do?

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#150

Post by est31 »

whatshisface wrote: post #144
est31 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, if you assume the technical model of each neuron only having one scalar output bfloat16, then we could simulate insect brains right now. But the technical neuron model of sum of inputs plus sigmoid activation function is only an approximation. Neurons communicate with each other with a multitude of neurotransmitters and receptors [1]. As a cell, each neuron is a complex organism of its own that undergoes transcr…

Lattice QCD is used for sub-nuclear simulations, proteins are studied with much more tractable methods based on regular quantum mechanics.

Yes, that's my point: you don't need to simulate a protein with that tool because we have good enough models of higher level structures like atoms. And similarly we might find models for neurons that allow us to avoid full emulation all protein interactions. We figured out how atoms work before we figured out how nuclei work, but with neurons it's the opposite: we know/can figure out how the the parts (proteins) of the machine work but not how the entire machine works.
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