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Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#51
post #32

Despite all the negativity in replies, I try to remain optimistic that this investment in AGI-related research is going to be a net positive. Congrats to the team, and break a leg!

Thank you!

The research that OpenAI’s doing is groundbreaking and the results are often beyond state-of-the-art. I aim to work in one of your research teams sometime!

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#52
post #27

$1B dollar is a lot of money. Microsoft is not a charity foundation, so the suspicious is obvious. > We’re partnering to develop a hardware and software platform within Microsoft Azure which will scale to AGI. We’ll jointly develop new Azure AI supercomputing technologies, and Microsoft will become our exclusive cloud provider—so we’ll be working hard together to further extend Microsoft Azure’s capabilities in large…

My "guess" is they're offering $1B worth of Azure services. Which costs MSFT probably much less than $1B.

My "guess" is that it means MSFT has access to sell products based off the research OpenAI does to MSFT's customers. Having early access to advanced research means MSFT could easily make this money back by selling better AI tools to their customers.

Also a great time to point out that while "Microsoft is not a charity foundation" it does offer a ton of free Azure to charities. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/nonprofits/azure This has been an awesome thing to use when helping small non-profits with little money to spend on "administrative costs".

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#53
post #27

$1B dollar is a lot of money. Microsoft is not a charity foundation, so the suspicious is obvious. > We’re partnering to develop a hardware and software platform within Microsoft Azure which will scale to AGI. We’ll jointly develop new Azure AI supercomputing technologies, and Microsoft will become our exclusive cloud provider—so we’ll be working hard together to further extend Microsoft Azure’s capabilities in large…

For Microsoft, the investment will likely come from computing resources to support AI practices/tests, MS personnel and paying current OpenAI personnel (expensive due to their expertise). The findings and expertise will likely be used in the future to help drive improvements in Microsoft's stack (cloud computing, search engine, etc). OpenAI will be licensing some of its technologies to Microsoft

For OpenAI, it means the availability of resources for their main mission for the foreseeable future, while potentially allowing founders and other investors with the opportunity to either double-down on OpenAI or reallocate resources to other initiatives (Think of Musk, for example).

"Do people understand what "Microsoft will become our exclusive cloud provider" means?" It likely means that computing power will be provided by Microsoft and that it may have access to the algorithms and results.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know what "investment" means?

Yes. You get money and give control.

Which is extremely well defined for OpenAI. One board seat, charter comes first. That's a legal agreement, not much open for interpretation.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#56
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I work at OpenAI.) Quite the opposite — this is an investment!

Is all this talk of AGI some kind of marketing meme that you guys are tolerating? We haven't figured out sentiment analysis or convnets resilient to single pixel attacks, and here is a page talking about the god damned singularity. As an industry, we've already burned through a bunch of buzzwords that are now meaningless marketing-speak. 'ML', 'AI', 'NLP', 'cognitive computing'. Are we going for broke and adding AGI…

At what point would you deem it a good idea to start working on AGI safety?

What "threshold" would you want to cross before you think its socially acceptable to put resources behind ensuring that humanity doesn't wipe itself out?

The tricky thing with all of this is we have no idea what an appropriate timeline looks like. We might be 10 years away from the singularity, 1000 years, or it might never ever happen!

There is a non-zero chance that we are a few breakthroughs away from creating a technology that far surpasses the nuclear bomb in terms of destructive potential. These breakthroughs may have a short window of time between each of them (once we know a, knowing b,c,d will be much easier)

So given all of that, wouldn't it make sense to start working on these problems now? And the unfortunate part of working on these problems now is that you do need hype/buzzwords to attract tallent, raise money and get people talking about AGI safety. Sure it might not lead anywhere, but just like fire insurance might seem unnecessary if you never have a fire, AGI research may end up being a useless field altogether but at least it gives us that cushion of safety.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#57
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've written up my opinion on the deal that OpenAI gives to investors here: https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/azvbmn/n_o... TLDR either the public is being conned or Microsoft is. And assuming that Microsoft probably has used top lawyers to close the deal, I doubt it's them.

sorry, your opinion appears to be nonsensical. a cap of 100x on returns and limited voting power certainly changes the price investors are willing to pay for the shares, but doesn't invalidate anything or render shares worthless or anything of the sort.

The difference between shares and a loan is that shares have

a) no cap on the returns

b) give you control over the company

c) limited ability to sue if the company acts against shareholder interests

d) no due date

Differences a, b and c seem to be gone here. Would you give someone a loan where you have no ability to sue them if they never give you the money back? I wouldn't unless that person is very important to me or the money is insignificant. Neither is the case here.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#58

Can we talk about the usage of the term "AGI" here? Considering its connotations in popular culture it sounds terrifically inappropriate in terms of what we can feasibly build today. Can we assume that marketing overrode engineering on the terminology of this press release?

The purpose of OpenAI is to eventually lead to safe AGI. It's part of their core business purpose. Whatever they do with Machine Learning today is merely instrumental in leading up to that goal.

We certainly cannot feasibly build AGI today, hence OpenAI's use of the term "pre-AGI technologies".

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is all this talk of AGI some kind of marketing meme that you guys are tolerating? We haven't figured out sentiment analysis or convnets resilient to single pixel attacks, and here is a page talking about the god damned singularity. As an industry, we've already burned through a bunch of buzzwords that are now meaningless marketing-speak. 'ML', 'AI', 'NLP', 'cognitive computing'. Are we going for broke and adding AGI…

At what point would you deem it a good idea to start working on AGI safety? What "threshold" would you want to cross before you think its socially acceptable to put resources behind ensuring that humanity doesn't wipe itself out? The tricky thing with all of this is we have no idea what an appropriate timeline looks like. We might be 10 years away from the singularity, 1000 years, or it might never ever happen! There…

Discussing the risks of AGI is always worthwhile and has been undertaken for several decades now. That's a bit different from the marketing fluff on the linked page:

"We’re partnering to develop a hardware and software platform within Microsoft Azure which will scale to AGI"

Azure needs a few more years just to un-shit the bed with what their marketing team has done and catch up to even basic AWS/GCP analytics offerings. Them talking about AGI is like a toddler talking about building a nuclear weapon. This is the same marketing team that destroyed any meaning behind terms like 'real time', and 'AI'.

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