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China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

bloomberg.com

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Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#11

Post by notatoad »

kccqzy wrote: post #4

> with concerns rising globally that Belt and Road was loading poorer nations with unsustainable debt So the reason the railroad wasn't completed was because the Chinese discovered that the debt was unsustainable. Seems like a rational business move. I wonder why they didn't discover this before they started building the railroad.

No, the chinese knew the debt was unsustainable, that was kind of the point. The problem is that the rest of the world caught on that China was loading up poorer countries with debts that they had little chance of repaying, and has started to exert pressure to stop it. It seems to be working.

Belt and Road is a scheme to gain control of trade routes between China and Europe. The goal for China is to hold those debts and have some measure of influence in the countries they have built transortation infrastructure in. They aren't trying to make money by running a lending business.

Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#12

Post by Mtinie »

diego wrote: post #3

That is a clickbait title. The reality is that it hasn't yet finished building a railroad to somewhere.

Isn’t it fair to be critical of the project given that while it’s in the plan to finish it, funds have basically dried up? Until it actually connects the major centers it is marooned and of far less utility.

Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#13

Post by dragandj »

diego wrote: post #3

That is a clickbait title. The reality is that it hasn't yet finished building a railroad to somewhere.

...and, since the funding dried, the work is currently finished (it ends at Nowhere), but it may not be continued for a long time... So quite a good title IMO.

Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#14

Post by datway »

baybal2 wrote: post #9

I did a project in Kazakhstan on turnstiles for the light rail. It was a very weird experience. A nominally 6 months project, which I managed to complete in just 2 months. Nevertheless, they extended my stay for 2 more months during which I did nothing, and was compensated for living and office expenses. Prior to that, I also been to UAE, Kenya and Angola, with a UAV company, trying to sell drones to their respective…

Is it possible to get in touch with you about this? I'd love to learn more about those customers.

Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#15

Post by cosmodisk »

I'm suprised Bloomberg is only covering this now,while a much more detailed article was published in the Economist quite some time ago. Tbh I'm quite surprised Chinese were letting run these projects so loosely. I can only imagine how many locals became millionaires off these infrastructure initiatives.

Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#16

Post by cosmodisk »

baybal2 wrote: post #9

I did a project in Kazakhstan on turnstiles for the light rail. It was a very weird experience. A nominally 6 months project, which I managed to complete in just 2 months. Nevertheless, they extended my stay for 2 more months during which I did nothing, and was compensated for living and office expenses. Prior to that, I also been to UAE, Kenya and Angola, with a UAV company, trying to sell drones to their respective…

This is called corruption. The first part,where you were asked to stay longer than needed is just a form of overbooking,where one declares the scale much greater than it actually is.I've seen this being done on a smaller scale,where instead of 5 people, company brings in 15 and then the extra 10 just wandering around nit doing much, however the end client is being billed as it was a job for 15 men.The other example was where a 1 truck of bricks turned out to be 15 trucks on paper...Again,the end client is charged. The part with drones is most likely where the locals with the right connections in the border services create some random company,then public tender is made in a way thst it just fits this new conpany. Once the contract is won, they'd buy drones from the major players anyway,just with a nice margin on top of it.

Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#17

Post by redis_mlc »

rayiner wrote: post #10

California built a railroad to nowhere in Fresno. Same central planning mentality.

> Same central planning mentality.

The high-speed rail project was never viable to build in 2019.

California already has a successful high-speed transit project - it's called Southwest Airlines.

However, the high-speed rail problem is the exact opposite of a central planning issue.

If the state government had enough power, it could fund and eminent domain all the property needed.

Instead, private contractors are in charge of the project, and money comes (and goes) at the whim of the Trump (federal) government.

From a political standpoint, transit projects are just pension rewards for supporters. That a member of the public could actually get from Point A to Point B is irrelevant.

Re: China’s Built a Railroad to Nowhere in Kenya

#20

Post by baybal2 »

AmericanChopper wrote: post #8
kccqzy wrote: post #4

> with concerns rising globally that Belt and Road was loading poorer nations with unsustainable debt So the reason the railroad wasn't completed was because the Chinese discovered that the debt was unsustainable. Seems like a rational business move. I wonder why they didn't discover this before they started building the railroad.

> I wonder why they didn't discover this before they started building the railroad. Because it doesn’t matter to China in any case. The debt these nations take on goes directly back to Chinese firms. If they struggle to pay the money back, even better for China, because that lets them flex more muscle over all of these developing countries they’re investing in. It seems this is more a response to external pressure th…

> It seems this is more a response to external pressure than it is to some new revelation that the projects are infeasible.

I'd say no. I've been personally involved with now 4 companies that were directly or indirectly involved in all that OBOR kerfuffle.

It was certainly a genuine miscalculation on Chinese side, and a very grave one.

An average Chinese bureaucrat knows no more of the outside world than a lifelong gated community dweller knows of "the hood." And add to that the natural incompetence of China's "aristocrat-bureaucrat" class.

In talks with many members of political establishment, I heard very much the same sentiment: many genuinely expected OBOR to be "a walk in the park." To a lot of them, their first first hand experience working outside of China is a complete eye opener.

The common line they thought was that "if Kenya's GDP is zillion times smaller than ours, then we can put zillion times less money on an equivalent project, and still get the same result."

Another one after that is "if it is so much cheaper than in China, it must be very easy."

Some times they get messed up with analogies beyond silly, like in the case of one OBOR official who was estimating costs of road projects in Africa by trying to find physically similar roads in China, and copypasting their costing.

A lot of things in China are done with presumption: "if it's abroad, it can't be worse than in China." That presumption is just so wrong.

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