Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal • Hacker News Board

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#51

Post by graeme » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 4:53 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #18

sunshinelackof wrote: post #12

It's scary, but there's nothing I can do. We need approachingly authoritarian action on this issue by world leaders. They've had the data for decades. And the longer they wait, the more dramatic the changes to everything will be. Certainly economic freedoms taken for today will be a thing of legend (and possibly horror.)

Dumping a trillion dollars over twenty years into wind turbines, solar panels, batteries and power-to-gas would go a pretty long way without draconian measures. Providing strong monetary incentives to insulate buildings and install heat pumps doesn't have to be authoritarian either.

If I'm reading these charts right, we currently invest roughly $300 billion per year in renewables. And more in networks, at least some of which must be for renewables.

And global carbon emissions are at their highest ever.

It's good we've built renewables rather than fossil. But the scale of the problem is WAY bigger than 1 trillion over 20 years.

https://www.iea.org/wei2018/

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#52

Post by hsavit1 » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 4:57 PM UTC

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #47

pjkundert wrote: post #34

There is something that you can do. Advocate that governments cut down on soot emissions. This accounts for a significant portion of the current temperature rise in the Arctic -- but, most importantly -- an unknown amount of the loss of snow and ice cover. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-track-... Unfortunately, this form of carbon (soot) is not as useful for funds transfer... Between cutting do…

Advocate that governments cut down on soot emissions. i.e. vote. There are extremely important elections coming up in several states in November that will indirectly decide who controls Congress for the next ten years. Voting in this off-year election, especially if you live in Virginia can make a material difference in how the United States responds to this crisis.

And vote in the democratic primaries for politicians that don't take a moderate position on the issue. cough cough, Joe Biden is a moderate, cough cough

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#53

Post by chewz » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 4:57 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #45

Will_Parker wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trouble is that if the "we" who are doing something does not include China and the rest of the world in coordination, then it is just sacrificing local economics in vain. The idea that the rest of the world is going to follow suit automatically based only on morals is far from obvious. It doesn't seem that anyone in the mainstream has really found a way to come to grips with this, that at its core any solution is…

You can start blaming China once there is a single country on Earth on track to stay within the 1.5° carbon budget. Until then you should talk to your own politicians why they aren't doing anything.

> Until then you should talk to your own politicians why they aren't doing anything.

I would love to. But unfortunately the climate problem isn't even a small part of the political dialogue here.

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#54

Post by epistasis » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 4:58 PM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #50

epistasis wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in a lucky position where I can walk to work, bike for local shopping, buy an electric car for the few times that I go on trips, etc. IMHO, the problem isn't as much individuals not choosing to do that, but a system that prevents these choices from ever being made. Also, not all spending is equal; buying propane or gasoline or airline tickets are clearly worse than buying a share of community solar; or buying new…

Yes the system was aimed at more consumption and more mileage. It's hard to unplug one self from this. For some it will be impossible even, to those well don't sweat it if you're stuck.

I think that unplugging may not be enough, we need to smash the systems that disallow people from unplugging. My partial unplugging may let me feel slightly less guilty, but on the absolute scale it does nothing at all to help the climate. I can wash my hands a bit morally, but the world is none the better for it. So what have I done, really? Not much. The people who have done something are the people who have made solar super cheap, who have mode wind super cheap, those that are building the battery technology that will help get to a carbonless grid, and the politicians that have enabled the tech growth through tax subsidies. My personal contribution is nothing, and it makes me sad.

Our electrical grid is slightly behind pace for decarbonization, but nowhere near as far behind as all the rest of society.

The bad part of society that has my greatest attention lately is single family zoning; this necessitates massive energy use, massive car use, and disallows anybody from creating a low-energy alternative that has all the amenities that people need in order to live. Single family zoning should be illegal. Nobody should be prevented from building an apartment building next to a small grocery store. Big-box stores should be highly restricted, instead of highly restricting apartment buildings.

(apologies for the long rant!)

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#55

Post by Will_Parker » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 4:59 PM UTC

seem_2211 wrote: post #49

Will_Parker wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trouble is that if the "we" who are doing something does not include China and the rest of the world in coordination, then it is just sacrificing local economics in vain. The idea that the rest of the world is going to follow suit automatically based only on morals is far from obvious. It doesn't seem that anyone in the mainstream has really found a way to come to grips with this, that at its core any solution is…

I grew up in New Zealand, and now live in America. In New Zealand, people with high carbon lifestyles say "well regardless of what we do, nothing matters if Americans don't change" Now I live in America, where people with high carbon lifestyles say "well regardless of what we do, nothing matters if the Chinese don't change" And I'm sure in China they say the same thing back to the US. It's fun shifting the blame.

> It's fun shifting the blame.

I don't think blame is a useful concept at all. The question is, within the complex world of economics and politics, starting from the point we are at today, what would a pragmatic solution look like, that is actually possible?

It is far from obvious that the best solution is to make local sacrifices, then hoping the world will follow. It might be that we all (in the world) need to agree to make sacrifices together first, put some rules and treaties in place, and then start improving together in coordination.

It sounds so Machiavellian but, if we are already making the economic sacrifices (that other countries aren't, but would like us to), I wonder if we aren't even losing potential bargaining power in coordinating globally?

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#56

Post by ForHackernews » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 4:59 PM UTC

Aloha wrote: post #24

ForHackernews wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do what ? Normal people can't do anything worthwhile. Unless you're in a position to personally bankroll the research and buildout of fusion power (hi, Jeff) the only thing you can do at this late date is get in the face of your government representatives: Jam up their phone lines, sit in at their offices, back primary challengers who will address the problem.

We could just build fission power plants, they're reasonably safe, not too expensive and we know how to store the waste safely, heck - we've built a place to store it, but until there is political will to overcome the NIMBYism of not wanting to live in the next potential Pripyat (no matter how remote that risk is) nothing will change, except the climate of course.

I was mostly being facetious. We probably don't have enough time left to build fission power plants (and certainly not fusion) before the level of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead inevitably to catastrophic consequences.

According to the IPCC, we have to cut global CO2 emissions by 50% before 2030. So your vast fleet of nuclear power plants might just barely be coming online by then. Maybe. If you started getting regulatory approval yesterday and nothing goes wrong at all.

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#57

Post by Aloha » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 5:00 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #27

Aloha wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could just build fission power plants, they're reasonably safe, not too expensive and we know how to store the waste safely, heck - we've built a place to store it, but until there is political will to overcome the NIMBYism of not wanting to live in the next potential Pripyat (no matter how remote that risk is) nothing will change, except the climate of course.

We could also just build renewables.

I'm not convinced that 100% renewables will actually create a resilient network

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#58

Post by MegaButts » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 5:04 PM UTC

Aloha wrote: post #24

ForHackernews wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do what ? Normal people can't do anything worthwhile. Unless you're in a position to personally bankroll the research and buildout of fusion power (hi, Jeff) the only thing you can do at this late date is get in the face of your government representatives: Jam up their phone lines, sit in at their offices, back primary challengers who will address the problem.

We could just build fission power plants, they're reasonably safe, not too expensive and we know how to store the waste safely, heck - we've built a place to store it, but until there is political will to overcome the NIMBYism of not wanting to live in the next potential Pripyat (no matter how remote that risk is) nothing will change, except the climate of course.

> We could just build fission power plants, they're reasonably safe, not too expensive and we know how to store the waste safely

I'm not convinced this is true. Obviously there is Chernobyl, but the failures and shortcomings seem to not only be understood but popularized by Western media and we can say "oh that was just the Soviet Union." Then Fukushima happened, in a country which seems to be far better than the US at building efficient, safe infrastructure. We could say that was a fluke and we will learn from it (and I'm sure we will), but how many more times will we need to learn to avoid the literal fallout of another nuclear disaster? Shit goes wrong sometimes and you can't predict it.

You can argue that it's still safer (obviously there are lots of nuclear power plants in the US that have had no huge disasters), but why not look at alternatives that are even safer?

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#59

Post by ssnistfajen » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 5:04 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #18

sunshinelackof wrote: post #12

It's scary, but there's nothing I can do. We need approachingly authoritarian action on this issue by world leaders. They've had the data for decades. And the longer they wait, the more dramatic the changes to everything will be. Certainly economic freedoms taken for today will be a thing of legend (and possibly horror.)

Dumping a trillion dollars over twenty years into wind turbines, solar panels, batteries and power-to-gas would go a pretty long way without draconian measures. Providing strong monetary incentives to insulate buildings and install heat pumps doesn't have to be authoritarian either.

None of these will work because a significant portion of the population in countries with elective governments do not believe in climate change at all. This means they will viciously oppose all climate change action plans so long as they are allowed a voice. Authoritarian measures become necessary (even if I don't necessarily advocate for it) when a large portion of the population are too short-sighted to decide what's best for themselves.

Re: Arctic Summer Melt Shows Ice Is Disappearing Faster Than Normal

#60

Post by sunshinelackof » Fri, Jul 19, 2019, 5:05 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #18

sunshinelackof wrote: post #12

It's scary, but there's nothing I can do. We need approachingly authoritarian action on this issue by world leaders. They've had the data for decades. And the longer they wait, the more dramatic the changes to everything will be. Certainly economic freedoms taken for today will be a thing of legend (and possibly horror.)

Dumping a trillion dollars over twenty years into wind turbines, solar panels, batteries and power-to-gas would go a pretty long way without draconian measures. Providing strong monetary incentives to insulate buildings and install heat pumps doesn't have to be authoritarian either.

I can't imagine building subsidies and alternative fuels will undo the last 200 years of emissions. Structural changes that will reorganize our lives will be necessary. We are in a privileged position, in that we can make these structural changes in a favorable way now before we're faced with a reality that forces these changes on us.