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America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

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Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#61
post #29
post #4

> There are many reasons New York might be shrinking, but most of them come down to the same unavoidable fact: Raising a family in the city is just too hard. Harder than in the 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, up to 80s? Millions of dirt poor immigrants raised children in the city just fine, and tons of working and middle class people were born and raised there. I seriously doubt it's "too hard" in any other sense, except job/ren…

It's harder than ever relative to living in the suburbs . Every day the suburbs get cheaper, more spacious, and more enjoyable relative to the city.

For you, perhaps. But for me and my family, raising children in the densest urban core is a highly enjoyable experience. Imagine never being in traffic again. Having your choice of activities, parkland, and restaurants. Hundreds of friends within a single square mile. That’s what draws many of us to the city over the suburb. But to each their own.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#62
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> taxes should be steadily increased over time and incentivise child rearing until birthrates become sustainable again. How exactly do you define sustainable here? Sustainable what?

Sustainable as in 2.x births per woman if you want to keep a population steady, or a lower number at first, but eventually you will want that 2.x births per woman because otherwise we go extinct as a species.

Your goal a 2-child (minimum) policy?? Our current population isn't environmentally sustainable. Historically, humans have had no problem increasing their population. I just don't understand the concern.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#63
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the large city where I live, green spaces and parks are flourishing. There are many cultural amenities for children (zoos, museums, libraries). There is also a large ecosystem of for-profit child care/play spaces. Cars are everywhere, but bike sharing, bike lanes, and public transportation are also available. I'm not sure that the city is an unfriendly a place for small children . The biggest problem with all of t…

Yeah I was thinking this as I read the parent comment. Everything they said is true, but it's also true that there is a lot for kids to do in those places. The comment about plopping kids in front of screens applies more so to the suburbs than to downtown! What are kids supposed to do in their neighborhood? Letting kids wander and play outside is seen as basically criminal, and there's nothing else to do.

> Letting kids wander and play outside is seen as basically criminal, and there's nothing else to do.

Not where I grew up and at least there is space to play sports. My friends and I used to play basketball, american football, and ultimate frisbee all the time growing up. Now I live downtown and the parks I walk past never have any free space.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#64
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think this is entirely true. Keep in mind that while earners have increased, households used to be much bigger, with more children and more extended relatives living together. And children and even young unmarried women used to work. So purely single income households weren’t a particularly long time. A bigger issue is that a lot of formerly big housing, at least in New York, has now been subdivided, since th…

Roommates are mostly a side-effect of banning SROs. If the NIMBYs had their way they'd be illegal too. Urban singles needing housing isn't new.

that may be a part of it, but I doubt it's the whole story. people don't just need a small room and a bed; they need kitchens, bathrooms, etc. these can be shared across a floor or a small building, but there's only so many strangers that can share a kitchen before it isn't useful to anyone. it's hard to imagine this being better than at least having the chance to find 3-4 people to split an apartment with.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#65
Japan is a decade or so "ahead" of USA in population decline, so it's worth looking at for hints about what might happen. They're starting to encourage immigration; a big change for that country.

Up until 1832 England's Industrial Revolution cities had severe under-representation in their Parliament: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Act_1832. (In the USA, by comparison, the state of Massachusetts was a Calvinist theocracy until 1833: England was ahead.) So the USA's allocation of electoral power followed England's example as the industrial revolution was just emerging, not when it was mature. USA's myth of one person one vote isn't the truth: it has the same problems as early 19th century England in that respect.

An inexorable positive (unstable) feedback loop makes rich crowded cities get richer and more crowded. We hackers know this: startups locate in the Bay Area even though it's the highest of high-rent districts and makes us burn through investor money faster. Tech needs tech (Bay area). Finance needs finance (New York). Beltway bandits need beltway bandits (DC).

But this effect doesn't last forever. Detroit (cars) used to be that way: no more. Lowell, Massachusetts (textiles) used to be that way: no more.

The big cities need more housing. To make that happen they need more robust infrastructure. That means they need bigger budgets. USA's rural politicians have propagated the myth that taxation is theft for a long time now, so it's hard to pay for that infrastructure. California's starting to escape the Proposition 13 trap laid for it by Howard Jarvis 45 years ago. It's possible other jurisdictions can escape too.

More housing closer to work, and better infrastructure, can only lead to less hectic lives for city-dwellers. That will lead to more sex and more kiddos. But, by the time that happens, it's possible that software work will have moved to less crowded places and something other industry will dominate.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#66

I look at it a little differently. The urban cores in the USA are actively hostile places for anyone to be. You step outside your door...into an empty hallway of doors. You take an elevator or stairs down to a place with a few mailboxes, then step outside. Outside, you have a narrow strip of concrete, possibly with a few trees, that you are allowed to inhabit. Beyond it is as asphalt with two ton steel contraptions w…

Have you tried being a kid or raising a kid in the city? This description does not match my experience or my general impressions of other people’s experiences at all.

Indeed, car-intermediated everything and complete dependence on parents is a much better description of suburban life for children than city life. I grew up in one of the most pleasant and active suburbs in the US, in a little college town, and it was still incredibly child-hostile. The city is IMO much friendlier to children.

In the city people can and do walk all over, with longer trips made by transit. There are more small shops of all kinds, more coffeeshops, more live music, more social clubs, more classes, more playgrounds, more museums, and in general more regular human contact of all kinds. Kids can be independent at a younger age, and can pursue a wider range of interests with community infrastructure and support.

> you have small children, this changes. Intellectual pursuits? They can't read yet, so your only option is parking them in front of videos.

I have one 3-year-old kid and one 5-month-old kid in San Francisco. Neither of them watches significant amounts of videos (occasionally we watch kids’ movies or old Mr. Rogers episodes together). The other kids we meet at the playground don’t seem to do excessive amounts of video watching.

Kids absolutely can do “intellectual pursuits”, but at their own level. First and foremost they play with all manner of physical objects – blocks, other construction toys, folded paper, empty cardboard boxes and yogurt containers, balls, sand, clay, water, their own bodies, ... Then kids love having stories told to them or books read to them. They love singing, using random household objects as percussion instruments, playing rhyming games, recognizing and naming objects, learning new words, counting random stuff, drawing with chalk and crayons, .... They love helping with household chores (not the most helpful at first, but they try), watching people do physical work of all kinds, play-acting all sorts of grown-up activities, ...

By far the biggest problem for small kids here in SF is the high cost of housing and childcare and the distance from grandparents. Many families we know have moved away to find places with cheaper housing (e.g. they were previously living in a rent-controlled 1 bedroom apartment and decided they wanted a 2-bedroom place, but couldn’t afford to pay current market rent for it) or more help with childcare.

> One false move and some yahoo in a steel contraption has killed them.

It would be great to ban cars from more streets, and get the remaining cars down to 15–20 miles/hour. This is not really a city problem per se; our whole society is built around cars, and suburbs are generally worse than cities at putting pedestrians in harm’s way.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#67

I look at it a little differently. The urban cores in the USA are actively hostile places for anyone to be. You step outside your door...into an empty hallway of doors. You take an elevator or stairs down to a place with a few mailboxes, then step outside. Outside, you have a narrow strip of concrete, possibly with a few trees, that you are allowed to inhabit. Beyond it is as asphalt with two ton steel contraptions w…

I’m raising a child in NYC right now. What is this dystopia you are describing? It’s the opposite of my personal experience. NYC is such a kid friendly place to raise kids: Museums, zoos, aquariums, free events for kids, concerts just for babies, parks, swimming pools, little league, soccer league, skate parks, etc… we have it all. I can’t fathom how people raise kids in the suburbs. They must be so bored…

You have a very narrow definition of the infrastructure required to raise kids. People have been raising families in cities long before suburbs were invented.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#69
post #4

> There are many reasons New York might be shrinking, but most of them come down to the same unavoidable fact: Raising a family in the city is just too hard. Harder than in the 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, up to 80s? Millions of dirt poor immigrants raised children in the city just fine, and tons of working and middle class people were born and raised there. I seriously doubt it's "too hard" in any other sense, except job/ren…

Yeah seriously. We're Catholic (the crazy kind who eschew birth control and have tons of babies). We live in the SF area and are moving to Portland and plan on buying in the city. We have lots of friends in SF who have large enough families (3 - 8 kids). These are not super wealthy people. Well, I mean, they save their money and spend wisely so they have enough. They are not hotshot doctors, lawyers, or software engi…

I'm not sure if those single income construction workers could afford a house now in daly city compared to let's say, 2011.

Re: America’s urban rebirth is missing actual births

#70
post #49

I look at it a little differently. The urban cores in the USA are actively hostile places for anyone to be. You step outside your door...into an empty hallway of doors. You take an elevator or stairs down to a place with a few mailboxes, then step outside. Outside, you have a narrow strip of concrete, possibly with a few trees, that you are allowed to inhabit. Beyond it is as asphalt with two ton steel contraptions w…

You don't need "low rise cohousing communities" to have families in cities. Japanese cities are extremely dense, yet people raise families there just fine. On my trip to Japan, I was really struck by how many children I saw in the middles of cities (moreso in some districts than others, of course), whereas I never see children in downtown American cities. Of course, Japanese cities don't have enormous parking lots, e…

The birth rate has completely nosedived in Japan aswel, its only 60% of the USA's
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