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Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

nytimes.com

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Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#431

Post by ghostbrainalpha »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #229
gwbas1c wrote: post #19

The following will happen before self-driving cars: - Robotic trash cans that perfectly sort recyclables and compostables without any contamination - Drones that fly around and kill invasive plants - Landscapers that show up with robotic lawnmowers - A dishwasher that can load and unload itself automatically - My Tesla can keep in its lane when it passes an on ramp (ect) The problem, IMO, with self-driving cars is th…

You need to have an economic payoff to justify the AI development/training. Sorting trash perfectly in trash cans? That's a consumer $50 appliance with robotic arms, sensors, and software? No way Drones flying around killing invasive plants? Capitalistic economics doesn't give a shit about the environment, because bank accounts are rarely affected by environmental problems, and certainly not in the next fiscal quarte…

You definitely wouldn't use robotic arms for the dishwasher unloading.

You would make it the base of the cabinet. After the dishes were cleaned a dummy waiter system could correctly route dishes, cups, and silver ware to their correct apartments directly above the dishwasher.

But you would need to buy dishes that were designed specifically to be a part of your dishwasher package.

And I'm not sure how a robot could help you load a dishwasher. Unless you are talking about some sort of advanced roomba following you around picking up after you. That would actually be great for my fat pig of a roommate. I hate that son of a bitch.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#432

Post by gooseus »

flippinburgers wrote: post #394
gooseus wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It means that when you defraud investors over outlandish claims, even if you believe you can do what you are claiming, then you have destroyed trust and made it harder for everyone else in the industry (who isn't making shit up) to get the funding to do the real work that creates real progress. You seem to have skipped/ignored the whole paragraph where I give Elon lots of credit and then the part where I how people w…

I just think it is disingenuous on your part to act like their output puts them in the same boat. You are lumping them together and I find that to be a completely inaccurate comparison. How you can compare someone who literally made nothing with someone who took his millions of dollars of worth and risked them on a space company and a car company ... it just blows my mind. As far as self driving is concerned I do thi…

I lump them together in one dimension, the one where they can extract millions from investors based on hype.

Yes, Elon deserves the hype more because he has delivered in the past and he certainly has more skin in the game, but it doesn't mean he isn't still playing the "fake it till you make it" game to some extent, and because failures are more impactful than wins, I think it's a dangerous game to play with his reputation.

I want Elon to cut the hype BS because I think it will hurt him in the long run. It's all about trust for me, it's a resource that is being depleted at a rapid rate and it's extremely important to a functioning civilization.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#433

Post by neaden »

6gvONxR4sf7o wrote: post #174
neaden wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average is 1.25 fatalities per 100 Million miles driven, so not that telling yet.

Presumably that average is taken over all conditions, implying that the average is well below 1.25 fatalities per 100 million miles driven in the conditions waymo is driving in.

True, and drunk drivers, and unlicensed drivers, and people driving while very sick or tired. Really we will need a couple billion miles driven to really start to get into fatalities as a metric compared to humans. Fortunately most car accidents aren't fatal, so those will be a better starting point.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#434

Post by runarberg »

ghostbrainalpha wrote: post #429
runarberg wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems there is a solution for your problem already: Busses. Although not strictly automated, they are externalized. That is you are not the one doing the driving, and therefor you are free to sleep, read, work, etc, while you wait to get to your destination. The beauty about busses is that they exists. There is no unsolved technology problems with busses. And they can be (and most likely already are) implemented w…

Your comment is how things "should work", but really not how they do. At least in the U.S. The drive from Las Vegas to Los Angeles is about 3.5 hours. It's a 90 minute flight. If you try to do it by Bus it takes 12 (often for about 1/2 the price of the plane ticket), and for some reason a train with NO STOPS took 16 hours. Which was discontinued just a couple years ago, because no one was using it. Maybe someday we w…

> Your comment is how things "should work", but really not how they do. At least in the U.S.

Since this is a comment on a thread about the possibility of building the infrastructure required for highway lanes reserved for autonomous cars, i.e. a thread about how things "could work" I see no problems with giving my self the same leeway for the established technology as the parent does for any future technology.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#435

Post by brokenmachine »

ghostbrainalpha wrote: post #429
runarberg wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems there is a solution for your problem already: Busses. Although not strictly automated, they are externalized. That is you are not the one doing the driving, and therefor you are free to sleep, read, work, etc, while you wait to get to your destination. The beauty about busses is that they exists. There is no unsolved technology problems with busses. And they can be (and most likely already are) implemented w…

Your comment is how things "should work", but really not how they do. At least in the U.S. The drive from Las Vegas to Los Angeles is about 3.5 hours. It's a 90 minute flight. If you try to do it by Bus it takes 12 (often for about 1/2 the price of the plane ticket), and for some reason a train with NO STOPS took 16 hours. Which was discontinued just a couple years ago, because no one was using it. Maybe someday we w…

Why did the bus trip take 12 hours when it's only a 3.5 hour drive?

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#436

Post by brokenmachine »

mkl wrote: post #350
onemoresoop wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about automating traffic lights? This could ease traffic in urban areas and I don't hear anyone talking about it.

Traffic lights are automated. They detect how many cars are waiting to know when to change, they adjust their cycle length depending on time of day, etc., they synchronise along long roads so people generally get a string of green lights. What do you mean?

One of the things I do when I'm the only car waiting at an otherwise empty intersection is to think about all the ways it could be better automated rather than timed.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#437

Post by mkl »

yazanobeidi wrote: post #423
mkl wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Traffic lights are automated. They detect how many cars are waiting to know when to change, they adjust their cycle length depending on time of day, etc., they synchronise along long roads so people generally get a string of green lights. What do you mean?

Only a small proportion of traffic light signals are adaptive and/or connected today. Most rely on manual signal timing studies to set a timing schedule. The up-front cost is typically prohibitive. Full disclosure I am founder of a startup changing the economics on this.

Most ones I regularly go through here (Christchurch, New Zealand) seem adaptive, as you can see the detector positions (often separate ones for cyclists as well). The lights clearly respond to them. The behaviour along long busy roads here may well be just timing to line up greens.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#438

Post by yazanobeidi »

mkl wrote: post #437
yazanobeidi wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only a small proportion of traffic light signals are adaptive and/or connected today. Most rely on manual signal timing studies to set a timing schedule. The up-front cost is typically prohibitive. Full disclosure I am founder of a startup changing the economics on this.

Most ones I regularly go through here (Christchurch, New Zealand) seem adaptive, as you can see the detector positions (often separate ones for cyclists as well). The lights clearly respond to them. The behaviour along long busy roads here may well be just timing to line up greens.

In the USA the latest statistics indicate less than 3000 of these adaptive lights are in operation (“less than 1%”). I am curious what New Zealand did to fund the six figure cost per intersection.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#439

Post by tabtab »

twblalock wrote: post #243
tabtab wrote: post #146

We don't need all-or-nothing. A good many people stay off the road anyhow during poor weather, and those who do go out usually stay on familiar routes, such as to work or their favorite grocery store. If self-driving cars/buses stick to a subset of streets and don't go out in big storms, they can still be widely useful. Set up (require) a universal network/database of road conditions on the main streets that all self…

Should everyone own a self-driving car and also a normal car they can drive in situations the self-driving car cannot handle? Keep in mind that public transit is nonexistent in many of the places that have weather conditions self-driving cars can't handle. For me personally, if a self-driving car cannot handle 100% of the driving and I have to own a second car, I might as well just make that second car my only car an…

No. Use Uber if you must go out in bad weather. It's rare you have to go out in bad weather. Amazon etc. can deliver dog food if you forget.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#440

Post by tabtab »

pas wrote: post #376
seibelj wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By admitting this fact you dramatically reduce the value of self driving cars and thus the inflated valuations of companies trying to create them. It is an uncomfortable truth.

The safe self driving is possible, but currently it is awkward, results in honking (because slow speed). That is still valuable for the occasional take me home from the pub mode. The rest of the time it should work with me and disengage prematurely if there's something going on.

Re: "results in honking (because slow speed)"

Too bad. Cowboy Driving is obsolete.

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