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China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

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51–60 of 103 posts

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#51
I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen.

As a side note, I have visited many companies while there and the Tencent HQ was the most awe-inspiring building, leaving the Bay Area architecture and building amenities looking incredibly dull.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#53

China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. What was the last time the US grew at even close to that rate?

> China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. It's not clear to me the extent one can trust the official numbers from China.

China is still doing well. You don’t need official numbers! Just look at Chinese tourists if you live near a tourist destination. They travel more than any time and they spend a lot. While this is not anything like a real economic metric, it is a reflection of what is happening there.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#54

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

cached version: http://archive.is/AFbNg

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#55
Maybe a fun fact.

A Chinese colleague of me was telling me how much money is going out with every wave of western media coverage on China’s future. They become worried and they invest abroad by buying assets or sending their children.

Then I saw some articles blaming Chinese buyers causing housing market issue in other parts of the world like Sydney, London, and Vancouver.

Remind me how everything is connected and how hard is to see the consequences of other actions.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#56
post #49

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

Don’t underestimate what media can do. One could argue that’s the power of media. If media publishes uncountable number of articles, sure investors and politicians will follow. Obviously there are more than one reason on the table. One being nobody wants too much power at Chinese hand and many countries are just worried about it. (This alone can have a lot of valid and invalid reasons) Second is of course now some ot…

Oh, I agree. Media like NYTimes and Bloomberg have enormous influence over the sphere of finance and investments. They have and will continue to exert equal and probably more influence on how US money is invested overseas. But that does not alter the fact that they've been wrong about China all these times.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)

Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways. The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have t…

Not at all. first, real estate is the essential part of a grand urbanisation plan along with other infrastructure developments. second, concrete and steel buildings definitely last longer than plaster and wood built ones in U.S.. It's just U.S. people spend a lot of time maintaining their house...I think it's not economically sensible. The time spent on house maintenance and repair could be more valuable in productive activities.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#58

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

How's China going to solve its housing bubble? Because we've heard about that building up, but there seems to have been no solution. Just because it hasn't blown up yet doesn't mean it won't.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#59

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

How's China going to solve its housing bubble? Because we've heard about that building up, but there seems to have been no solution. Just because it hasn't blown up yet doesn't mean it won't.

Anyone can predict a bear market... the trick is when.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#60

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

And The Economist. Can’t forget The Economist’s constant and sustained death knelling over China’s economy over the years.

I just file all these away along with the other 8447372 similar articles predicting the imminent collapse of China.

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