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China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

wsj.com

31–40 of 103 posts

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#31
post #21

Can someone tell me how the WSJ arrived at $13,888.96 for China's GDP per capita in 2018? Did they just make it up?

It's probably a roundish estimate multiplied by an exact exchange rate to USD.

I wonder if they still teach significant figures in schools.

EDIT: It also seems high unless they're using some sort of purchasing power adjustment.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#33

This video from last year was pretty eye opening to me. Shows uninhabited "new" ghost cities completely crumbling. There's no underlying value to the property bubble going on over there and the scale seems mind blowing. https://youtu.be/XopSDJq6w8E

ADVChina is really entertaining. I'm not sure how reliable they are, but my impression has been pretty favorable so far.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you like to provide some evidence to the contrary for that or just a general "It's probably not true"? You could say the same about Western government debt that's creatively accounted, unemployment rates which avoid underemployment/participation and inflation which desperately needs to remain low to keep bond rates from bankrupting public balance sheets.

China has been cooking the books on their GDP for years: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-admits-its-statistics-...

Oh I think you may be right. They might have been understating their GDP. I remember few yrs ago Bloomberg wrote a piece explaining why the Chinese bureaucrats have incentives to under-report.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#37
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only tangentiao related but funny story. While visiting a college campus in China in 2012 our tour guide remarked about one of the dorm buildings... "This building is very old! Built in the 1980s!". I thought that was funny after growing up in New England.

I grew up in New England, visited historic sites like the Jamestown, Colonial Williamsburg, Castillo de San Marcos. I went to France and stayed in a house that was older than all of them, went to England and drank in a pub yet older. Time is relative.

My first trip overseas was to the UK, during university, as a term abroad kind of thing. One night, some of my peers and I went round the pub, and I got to talking with an older local. I commented that it was a strange and perspective-shifting thing to be around human structures so old, "which we don't have back in the States".

He offered the counterpoint of, e.g., Chaco Canyon as something even older.

Time is indeed relative. That kind of perspective-check is awesome.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#38
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you like to provide some evidence to the contrary for that or just a general "It's probably not true"? You could say the same about Western government debt that's creatively accounted, unemployment rates which avoid underemployment/participation and inflation which desperately needs to remain low to keep bond rates from bankrupting public balance sheets.

Here are a couple western think tanks who evaluated recent Chinese economic stats - CSIS in particular comprehensively reverse engineered Chinese GDP reporting from ground up- and concluded China is (1 trillion USD) larger than official numbers purports to be. Whole "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak” Sun Tzu thing. Broken Abacus? A More Accurate Gauge of China's Economy https://www.youtub…

My own government in Australia has the official unemployment rate which is contradicted every time with independent analysis by a well-known multinational firm. Not fractions of a percent either, full percentage points difference.

Argue about pennies all you want. China are eating up more and more of world GDP. In 1998 they produced 3% of the worlds total output. Choose whatever source you want to see where it is now.

Either people can wake up to it or continue consuming media pleasantries that make them feel better.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#40
post #14
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you trust the statistics coming out of the Chinese Communist Party?

I’ve been seeing the same article here rehashed since I was in elementary school over 20 years ago. I trust CCP statistics as much as I trust western reports about China. Which is to say, not at all. China probably isn’t as rich or powerful as it projects, but it’s also clearly not as weak and fragile as American media has been hoping all these decades.

That's unwise, you can call the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) up and ask them how they arrived at their numbers. In the UK you can go on field trips with the Office of National Statistics (ONS) to watch them measure inflation. It's materially different.
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