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China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

wsj.com

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Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#11

Post by lulouie »

RidingPegasus wrote: post #7
lulouie wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1984, 7.23% :) Plus, you really trust the number which come from CCP?

So nearly 40 years ago, many here weren't even born. Do you trust Bloomberg? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-l...

Take a look around "中國 GDP 灌水", lead to this latest research claim that China's GDP has been misrepresent after 2008.

CITE: Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDP growth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in 2016 is 7 percentage points lower.

Ref: https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/a-forensic-examinati...

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#12

Post by metildaa »

RidingPegasus wrote: post #8
nordsieck wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. It's not clear to me the extent one can trust the official numbers from China.

Would you like to provide some evidence to the contrary for that or just a general "It's probably not true"? You could say the same about Western government debt that's creatively accounted, unemployment rates which avoid underemployment/participation and inflation which desperately needs to remain low to keep bond rates from bankrupting public balance sheets.

China has been cooking the books on their GDP for years: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-admits-its-statistics-...

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#13

Post by seanmcdirmid »

onetimemanytime wrote: post #9
ajflores1604 wrote: post #2

This video from last year was pretty eye opening to me. Shows uninhabited "new" ghost cities completely crumbling. There's no underlying value to the property bubble going on over there and the scale seems mind blowing. https://youtu.be/XopSDJq6w8E

wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)

Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways.

The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have to do it again just means more jobs on the future. Incidentally, the same construction techniques are used in India for the same reason, and hence are exported to Singapore and the Middle East so they can leverage Indian migrant construction workers

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#14

Post by fiblye »

Rch_East wrote: post #4
coliveira wrote: post #3

China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. What was the last time the US grew at even close to that rate?

Do you trust the statistics coming out of the Chinese Communist Party?

I’ve been seeing the same article here rehashed since I was in elementary school over 20 years ago.

I trust CCP statistics as much as I trust western reports about China. Which is to say, not at all.

China probably isn’t as rich or powerful as it projects, but it’s also clearly not as weak and fragile as American media has been hoping all these decades.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#16

Post by adingus »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13
onetimemanytime wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)

Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways. The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have t…

Only tangentiao related but funny story. While visiting a college campus in China in 2012 our tour guide remarked about one of the dorm buildings... "This building is very old! Built in the 1980s!". I thought that was funny after growing up in New England.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#17

Post by [deleted] »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13
onetimemanytime wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)

Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways. The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have t…

[deleted]

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#19

Post by RidingPegasus »

lulouie wrote: post #11
RidingPegasus wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So nearly 40 years ago, many here weren't even born. Do you trust Bloomberg? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-l...

Take a look around "中國 GDP 灌水", lead to this latest research claim that China's GDP has been misrepresent after 2008. CITE: Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDP growth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in 2016 is 7 percentage points lower. Ref: https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/a-forensic-examinati...

I'm well aware of the history, thanks for the link. We are in a comment section of an article on this latest print and I was responding to a comment which says it doesn't trust the official figures.

Provided evidence to the contrary.

Do you think this GDP number is wrong and if so by how much?

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#20

Post by RidingPegasus »

metildaa wrote: post #12
RidingPegasus wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you like to provide some evidence to the contrary for that or just a general "It's probably not true"? You could say the same about Western government debt that's creatively accounted, unemployment rates which avoid underemployment/participation and inflation which desperately needs to remain low to keep bond rates from bankrupting public balance sheets.

China has been cooking the books on their GDP for years: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-admits-its-statistics-...

I'm talking about this figure. Asking for evidence to the contrary that it's not 6.3%. If so what do you think it is? 3%? 2%? Perhaps 6.1%?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-l...

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