Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’ • Hacker News Board

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#381

Post by erobbins » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 10:42 PM UTC

runarberg wrote: post #292

beat wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need transportation. A world of sitting on our butts in front of a computer isn't a solution to much of anything. Maybe we don't need to actually operate the vehicle, but we need the vehicle. I'm not walking halfway across the country just to visit my mother.

Whoa. Misunderstanding here. I’m not talking about eliminating transportation. That is just stupid. Alternative transportation from driving include: busses, trains, bikes, walking, trolleys, bicycles, ski-lifts, airplaines, taxis, boats, rollerskates, escalators, etc. The sum of these alternatives will almost always outweigh driving in terms of benefits with a notable exception of convenience. So if you are willing t…

There's no faster (or more convenient) way of getting anywhere outside of a city than driving. It's point to point, and runs on my schedule.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#382

Post by orasis » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 10:53 PM UTC

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #220

hateful wrote: post #25

I think it would happen this way: firstly you would automate things that go on a track - like trains - which I think we already have. Then secondly you could have certain lanes or roads that are designed for specific self-driving vehicles. This could help buses and trucks (in certain areas) get around. Then you would keep adding more of those, until many roads have those and very few manual lanes. It wouldn't immedia…

Seriously, please automate highway driving first. You get all the benefits for shipping and efficiency and logistics, so the money is there. The problem is so much more simple, and there can be convergent infrastructure (embedded sensors, mesh network updates, higher standards of road quality). On long trips on highways it just kills me that I have to stare at the same image for hours basically, and that a program co…

Autopilot on my Tesla Model 3 has already solved highway driving for me.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#383

Post by runarberg » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 10:53 PM UTC

erobbins wrote: post #381

runarberg wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoa. Misunderstanding here. I’m not talking about eliminating transportation. That is just stupid. Alternative transportation from driving include: busses, trains, bikes, walking, trolleys, bicycles, ski-lifts, airplaines, taxis, boats, rollerskates, escalators, etc. The sum of these alternatives will almost always outweigh driving in terms of benefits with a notable exception of convenience. So if you are willing t…

There's no faster (or more convenient) way of getting anywhere outside of a city than driving. It's point to point, and runs on my schedule.

Note that I'm giving my self all of the advantages of all of the alternatives. And I’m also painting this scenario in a world where all of these alternatives have all of the required infrastructure in place[1].

With that said, yes there are faster ways (albeit still less convenient) of getting you outside of said city. You might have to change your mode of transportation a couple of time (I said it was less convenient) but it will still be faster with the right systems and infrastructure in place.

1: This is not an unfair scenario because this is already almost the case for all of the non-alternatives.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#384

Post by taurath » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 10:57 PM UTC

seibelj wrote: post #363

Animats wrote: post #352

The state of the art is discouraging for the money and years poured into it. Recognizing solid obstacles is still unreliable. On the one side, there's Tesla running into stationary objects multiple times, and Uber running down a pedestrian. On the other side, there's a false alarm rate which causes sudden stops. Low-speed self-driving vehicles ought to work reliably by now, but don't. Google's cute little bubble car,…

It's been the same conversation for 10 years! Here's a comment I made 4 years ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10133049 It still takes a team of highly paid engineers to build and maintain an authentication page. Seriously - I guarantee you there is a 100+ person team at Google that handles login. Self driving cars are a very, very long way away. The problem space has unquantifiable and insurmountable complex…

At the same time, we're able to launch huge rockets into space with people in them. We build massive buildings that withstand 9.0 earthquakes. We build and maintain massive systems of roads, the power grid, deliver clean water to every home in the country. Its a problem of resources and infrastructure - we could rebuild every highway with a self-driving lane that'd be much safer than not.

You're right - the distance to being able to navigate just about any area whether built for it or not is a long way away, and the complexity may end up insurmountable. But we have the tech to move us incrementally towards that.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#385

Post by runarberg » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 10:58 PM UTC

oposa wrote: post #380

runarberg wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems there is a solution for your problem already: Busses. Although not strictly automated, they are externalized. That is you are not the one doing the driving, and therefor you are free to sleep, read, work, etc, while you wait to get to your destination. The beauty about busses is that they exists. There is no unsolved technology problems with busses. And they can be (and most likely already are) implemented w…

> There is no unsolved technology problems with busses. They have similar physics problems as cars. 1. They can't go very fast nor carry a lot of weight before they become uneconomical or unsafe. 2. They especially can't go very fast for very long if they are electrical. 3. They need a driver which makes them expensive to run often or with few passengers. If you get to choose, what you want is something like: A. Medi…

Indeed buses or by no means the optimal technology of transporting people. But they often are the cheapest and easiest, and therefor often the smartest choice for urban planners. However once buses start to become congested (Seattle, I’m looking at you), or forseen to become so, they really are a terrible option next to some sort of a train (light, or heavy, underground, elevated, or on ground).

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#386

Post by smogcutter » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 11:14 PM UTC

jm4 wrote: post #281

gamblor956 wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla made it cool. Outside of SV, Teslas aren't viewed as any cooler than Priuses. They're actually seen as much worse--elitist vehicles--since Priuses are affordable for most families and Teslas are not, plus require lots of expensive infrastructure just for basic use. I know a few people who drive Teslas. Not one of them is someone who would even be remotely described as cool. I know a lot of people who drive Priu…

The Prius succeeded in spite of itself. They are ugly as hell, didn't offer plug in capability for years despite customers begging for it, so slow you can barely merge onto the highway and not the most ideal family car. It's the kind of car you put up with because you want to be green or you have a shitty commute and you're tired of paying $4/gallon for gas. Nobody buys a Prius for any reason other than that it's a h…

> Nobody buys a Prius for any reason other than that it's a hybrid with great fuel economy. Nobody. Then there was the Honda Insight which was worse in every way.

I don't understand this comparison. Yes, it's a commuter appliance. Any car you spend 90k on is going to look nicer and go faster than a Prius. So will a 7 series, who cares?

What the Prius did is mainstream the idea of hybrids and "green" vehicles in general, and they've sold a zillion of them. Go ahead and call it boring (it's super boring), but so is essentially every other commuter car it's competing against. The Model S on the other hand has only "popped" among people who can buy luxury sports cars to begin with. It's fast, it's impressive, and it's a niche luxury product whose entire fleet is a rounding error in Prius sales figures.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#387

Post by jacques_chester » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 11:17 PM UTC

joefourier wrote: post #196

michaelt wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine you're driving down a street when a kid playing on the sidewalk runs behind a truck and disappears from your view. If the kid appears in the road from behind the truck, the computer can handle slamming on the brakes very easily - probably faster than a human can - without understanding the kid any better than a group of LIDAR points or a rectangle of pixels labelled 'obstacle' by a neural network. But if you…

There's no need for a theory of mind - the self driving car can identify the kid as a pedestrian, recognize that it started moving in a possible collision course, then disappeared, thus prompting either slowing down to a non-fatal speed until the truck has been passed. Children playing in the street are a common occurrence in residential areas, I see no reason why you would not develop a set of rules and heuristics t…

> There's no need for a theory of mind - the self driving car can identify the kid as a pedestrian, recognize that it started moving in a possible collision course, then disappeared, thus prompting either slowing down to a non-fatal speed until the truck has been passed.

So ... a theory of mind.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#388

Post by herewulf » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 11:22 PM UTC

bluedino wrote: post #314

pedrocr wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is humans are already behaving extremely poorly as drivers and that already causes accidents. There are ways to help that be less of an issue that also helps self-driving become possible. But instead we accept those ridiculous risks when driving ourselves and yet expect to hold self-driving to a much higher standard while also complaining if it's not aggressive enough in traffic. That may very well turn self…

>> My point is humans are already behaving extremely poorly as drivers I haven't been in an accident in over 15 years

I had never been in an accident in 22 years of driving a vehicle until several months ago when I was rear-ended while sitting at a red light, in bright, mid-day, dry conditions. My car was the only one at the light even. This extremely poorly driving (or distracted?) human is presumably still out there on the roads somewhere.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#389

Post by oposa » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 11:23 PM UTC

runarberg wrote: post #385

oposa wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no unsolved technology problems with busses. They have similar physics problems as cars. 1. They can't go very fast nor carry a lot of weight before they become uneconomical or unsafe. 2. They especially can't go very fast for very long if they are electrical. 3. They need a driver which makes them expensive to run often or with few passengers. If you get to choose, what you want is something like: A. Medi…

Indeed buses or by no means the optimal technology of transporting people. But they often are the cheapest and easiest, and therefor often the smartest choice for urban planners. However once buses start to become congested (Seattle, I’m looking at you), or forseen to become so, they really are a terrible option next to some sort of a train (light, or heavy, underground, elevated, or on ground).

Buses could probably work in urban areas if there were less cars. Today cars come from far and wide "bunch up" in cities. Much of the reasons why trains are better in urban areas today is because of the dedicated space and being electric. But train don't get to really use their speed, easier environment or carrying capacity much in urban areas.

With less cars in cities buses could be competitive with trains since they are street level and can go in different directions, but the would probably still have to be electric and automated for that to be true. (Of course you would still need subways and commuter trains anyway, but you wouldn't be as dependent on them). Trams could probably also be an option, but I am not entirely sure on the future of self-driving trams.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#390

Post by mamon » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 11:33 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #242

joefourier wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no need for a theory of mind - the self driving car can identify the kid as a pedestrian, recognize that it started moving in a possible collision course, then disappeared, thus prompting either slowing down to a non-fatal speed until the truck has been passed. Children playing in the street are a common occurrence in residential areas, I see no reason why you would not develop a set of rules and heuristics t…

It's worse than that. That small thing heading toward the road... was that a leaf blown by the wind, or was it a ball? If it's a ball, you'd better be already braking , because a kid is likely coming right behind it, and paying attention to the ball rather than the road. If it's a leaf, though... you don't want to hit the brakes for every blowing leaf.

even worse: sometimes kids actually do chase leaves on the wind, or butterflies.