I have been saying this for years. Even if self driving cars handle 99% of situations correctly, they don’t become feasible until they can do that last 1%, which is 100x more difficult then previous 99. The reality is, if the car drives itself, people will be doing other things in the car and will be unable to respond to emergencies.
Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
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Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#92They mean in America, right? Because I’m sure China will simply build dedicated roads to kickstart the process. Dedicated self-driving roads for trucks to move products would likely be profitable. There’s no need to solve the entire problem for self-driving to be worthwhile.
These are called railways and every civilized country already has them.
Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Simply being safer than humans is easy- we are already there. Seriously?
Just Waymo was driving over 1 million miles a month in 2018. How many people have they killed? The fact that an autonomous vehicle or Tesla "autopilot" fatality makes national news is telling. It's not commonplace.
It's not sufficient for these systems to just be "better" than humans in terms of accidents/mile/vehicle, they have to be FAR BETTER than humans.
Today, when accidents occur, blame and liability goes to the responsible parties. We're talking about millions of accidents and millions of drivers.
If you suddenly have a car that drives, the blame and liability for all accidents then gets focused like a giant magnifying glass onto ONE (or a few) companies which have made the self-driving car.
I don't know how many accidents/mile/vehicle is the "magic number" but I expect it is going to have to be far far far lower than what it is now. Otherwise, these self-driving car vendors won't be able to survive the legal onslaught.
Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
If a human can do it, I see no reason why an autonomous system can't, eventually, do it. It might take a very long time, but "never" seems short-sighted.
Will a computer ever write War and Peace or compose the 9th Symphony too? How about solve an unsolved math proof? No reason it can't be automated, right?
All these things are literally on the AI horizon.
Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#95Nothing makes a huge group of us cringe more, than people saying it's just around the corner. The worst part is it also comes from people who should know better. >Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control—usually called a “level five” autonomous vehicle—will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journa…
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Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
a child can appear instantly on any street. they can even run into the highway if their parent pulls onto the shoulder for a bathroom break or something. of course, it's much more likely to happen in a neighborhood than on the highway, so we drive slower in the neighborhood. but anything that can happen eventually will, so there ought to be some policy. that said, I think there is a certain segment of the population…
Exactly. The maximum safe speed in a neighborhood is 20mph, and the maximum safe speed passing a stopped car on the freeway is a lot less than 60mph.
sure, but I don't think the whole highway is obligated to slow down for a stopped car on the right shouler, only the lane next to the shoulder (and I would argue that this lane suddenly slowing all the way down to 20mph would create a worse hazard). theoretically the child could make it all the way to to left before being struck. I'm not saying this is likely, just that there is no speed where you can guarantee that you won't hit a pedestrian that is behaving erratically. the best you can do is make it very unlikely in most cases.
Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#97Is it just me, or is the Argo CEO interviewed for every single article that's pessimistic about self-driving cars?
Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#98I honestly think that even when we do get full self driving cars, you won’t be able to own one. They will be rideshare only. The reality is that autonomous vehicles are so complex that you need advanced mapping of very well known conditions to make this feasible. Companies will make these sort of maps for major cities where they run their ride service but anywhere else cars will just not be advanced enough to handle unexpected conditions. Self driving cars will only ever work under controlled circumstances such as well known cities and suburbs.
Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Simply being safer than humans is easy- we are already there. Seriously?
Just Waymo was driving over 1 million miles a month in 2018. How many people have they killed? The fact that an autonomous vehicle or Tesla "autopilot" fatality makes national news is telling. It's not commonplace.
A million miles is not a lot. For comparison, the people of LA drove a million miles by 5a this morning. The drivers in SoCal will drive over 100 million miles just today.
The fact that many accidents involving human drivers still make the news is telling. It's not commonplace.
Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Simply being safer than humans is easy- we are already there. Seriously?
Just Waymo was driving over 1 million miles a month in 2018. How many people have they killed? The fact that an autonomous vehicle or Tesla "autopilot" fatality makes national news is telling. It's not commonplace.
The average is 1.25 fatalities per 100 Million miles driven, so not that telling yet.