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Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

nytimes.com

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Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#81

Post by nutjob2 »

skywhopper wrote: post #41

This has been obvious all along to anyone who has ever driven or used a computer before and thought about the reality for more than a couple of minutes. But the press and VCs bought into the hype from the likes of Uber who needed to keep generating huge new investment to stay afloat and Tesla which is run by a delusional snake oil salesman who had a single hit with the Model S. The shocking examples of crazy unexpect…

You get the feeling that they're solving the wrong problem though.

No-one can can predict what other people are going to do, and what other drivers do is also affected by what you do. Most drivers aren't even paying that much attention. Realistically you can't model that to any useful level of precision.

I think maybe vendors are trying to build a more deterministic system that can justify its actions, but to make autonomous driving actually work, I suspect you have to make it drive like human: taking actions "confidently" (i.e. slightly recklessly) assuming the world will roughly follow a rational model, while also driving "defensively" to cope with the general unpredictability of reality.

The price to pay for this strategy is familiar to human drivers: the occasional fender bender.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#82

Post by mhermher »

kpU8efre7r wrote: post #54

Could be saying that to defeat competition. Don't bother trying it's decades away! And Ford is notoriously behind the rest of the pack so I'd believe even less of what they say as well. I don't listen to executives with a stake in the game regardless of which side they are playing. The barriers to this seem mosly man made. Regulations, restrictions, taxi lobby, trucker unions, etc. A lot of it depends on where the li…

You need to stop listening to Elon Musk. Almost everything you said is wrong.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#83

Post by anodyne33 »

hateful wrote: post #25

I think it would happen this way: firstly you would automate things that go on a track - like trains - which I think we already have. Then secondly you could have certain lanes or roads that are designed for specific self-driving vehicles. This could help buses and trucks (in certain areas) get around. Then you would keep adding more of those, until many roads have those and very few manual lanes. It wouldn't immedia…

> Then secondly you could have certain lanes or roads that are designed for specific self-driving vehicles

I have a friend in mapping at Uber ATG. Uber Eats is only available in areas she has mapped which makes me think that they aren't waiting for dedicated infrastructure and relying on their mapping database for now, at least for early development. Granted, Uber Eats isn't using AVs, but that makes me think the GIS crew is doing some heavy lifting there. Pure speculation on my part though.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#84

Post by mhermher »

suprfnk wrote: post #26
casefields wrote: post #2

Nothing makes a huge group of us cringe more, than people saying it's just around the corner. The worst part is it also comes from people who should know better. >Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control—usually called a “level five” autonomous vehicle—will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journa…

If a human can do it, I see no reason why an autonomous system can't, eventually, do it. It might take a very long time, but "never" seems short-sighted.

Will a computer ever write War and Peace or compose the 9th Symphony too? How about solve an unsolved math proof? No reason it can't be automated, right?

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#85

Post by mhermher »

api wrote: post #5

"Never" is kind of equally absurd. It's just a brutally hard problem.

You will never define a complete and consistent algebra. You will never exactly measure the momentum and position of a particle. They're not brutally hard problems, they're not possible. We know that there are a set of things that are impossible. Why is recreating human intelligence in silicon beyond that consideration?

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#86

Post by sunstone »

The ugly part of this is that if drivers get used to self driving in reasonable weather then, in the one percent of the time (or less) when conditions get really horrible, their driving skills won't be up to the challenge.

However as self driving becomes common investment will be made to make roads easier for self driving technology and extend the technologies usefulness.

Even now in snow storms when temperatures are just below freezing human drivers have a hard time coping. If self driving just has to do better than that. It doesn't have to be perfect.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#87

Post by Retric »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #79
leetcrew wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When your stopping distance (including reaction time) exceeds your visibility there's no way to drive safely, but humans do it anyways. this is bad, but not quite as bad as it sounds. most of the time, you only need to stop as fast as the car in front of you. it's pretty uncommon to encounter a stationary object in the middle of the travel lane. in fact, outside of driving on surface streets in the city, I can't re…

Accident rates in the US on the highway are on the order of one per million miles. And in a million miles of driving you will encounter quite a few stationary or otherwise unexpected objects in the middle of the travel lane.

Object sure, but generally it’s not really an issue. Simply avoiding or driving over broken tire bits etc is generally a non issue.

A object would need to be substantial enough to cause an accident and then roll into or fall onto a highway. That’s far from a 1 per million miles of driving situation. Remember, something falling off a truck would also take a while to slow down.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#88

Post by mhermher »

saiya-jin wrote: post #64
skywhopper wrote: post #41

This has been obvious all along to anyone who has ever driven or used a computer before and thought about the reality for more than a couple of minutes. But the press and VCs bought into the hype from the likes of Uber who needed to keep generating huge new investment to stay afloat and Tesla which is run by a delusional snake oil salesman who had a single hit with the Model S. The shocking examples of crazy unexpect…

> Tesla which is run by a delusional snake oil salesman Dude, you may not like Musk personally (which is glaringly obvious), but at least stick to the facts - he triggered much needed car industry transformation more than anybody else in recent times. industry itself wouldn't change itself so rapidly even if planet would be burning, that's obvious. And mankind gravely needs it now. Plus small detail about revolutioni…

What did he trigger exactly that wasn't triggered by regulation? He just exploited some regulations to keep his structurally bankrupt company afloat long enough. Tried the same with Solar City and failed BTW.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#89

Post by leetcrew »

snarf21 wrote: post #23
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #4

Self-driving tech muggle here. Could someone explain to me why any average Joe with minimal intellect can drive a car using only a pair of eyes but it's difficult to build a fully self-driving car even with 8+ cameras, GPS, LIDAR and other sensors us humans don't have?

A lot of those sensors and cameras are less accurate during the night or in weather or with sun glare. I think one of the biggest issues is that people will not accept self-driving cars that are as safe as human drivers. They want perfect driving. If someone hits a pedestrian that jumps out from between two cars unexpectedly, it might get written off as an accident and the insurance company may not even have to pay i…

> The "robot" car has a big trolley problem that isn't easily solvable.

I really think this is overblown. it's not hard to think of a solution to these issues because we already have it in traffic laws for humans. there are rules for accessing the right of way. if you follow the rules and make a good faith effort to account for people who don't, it is pretty hard to be found at fault for an accident, or even "cause" one to begin with. rear ending someone starts with too close of a following distance (or too high a speed) for the conditions. tbones and head on collisions can only happen when one or more people are moving without the right of way. pedestrian strikes on the street can only happen when the pedestrian or the driver is not observing the other's legal right of way.

sideswipes are kinda ambiguous. it's possible for two vehicles to check that there is space in the middle lane simultaneously, then merge into each other. I don't think it's legally required, but I never merge into the middle lane when there is a car to the far left/right.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#90

Post by magpi3 »

melling wrote: post #56

They mean in America, right? Because I’m sure China will simply build dedicated roads to kickstart the process. Dedicated self-driving roads for trucks to move products would likely be profitable. There’s no need to solve the entire problem for self-driving to be worthwhile.

How would that be different from railroads? Aren't those already dedicated to moving products and large amounts of people? And wouldn't they be much easier for machines to navigate?
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