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Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

nytimes.com

61–70 of 445 posts

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#61

It seems like the easy answer is to kick human drivers off the road, right? That will eliminate a great deal of the unpredictability. Start with a small section of a city, and if the results are good, people will want to expand it.

Also bicyclists, and also human pedestrians -- they decide to cross roads at the craziest times. A city without humans is what we need.

this sounds exactly what machines silently taking over would say

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#63

Id take this article with a large pinch of salt, considering their previous predictions about technology. case in point below: "Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one which started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by…

That last point about materials is interesting. Commercial extraction of aluminium was only discovered in the late 1880s and Duralumin (an early alloy) wouldn't be invented until 1909. Thanks to these discoveries and the Great War the prediction was way off.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#64

This has been obvious all along to anyone who has ever driven or used a computer before and thought about the reality for more than a couple of minutes. But the press and VCs bought into the hype from the likes of Uber who needed to keep generating huge new investment to stay afloat and Tesla which is run by a delusional snake oil salesman who had a single hit with the Model S. The shocking examples of crazy unexpect…

> Tesla which is run by a delusional snake oil salesman

Dude, you may not like Musk personally (which is glaringly obvious), but at least stick to the facts - he triggered much needed car industry transformation more than anybody else in recent times. industry itself wouldn't change itself so rapidly even if planet would be burning, that's obvious. And mankind gravely needs it now. Plus small detail about revolutionizing whole commercial space industry in extremely effective way.

Mankind now gravely needs more of these 'snake oil salesmen', even with their missteps

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#65
post #25

I think it would happen this way: firstly you would automate things that go on a track - like trains - which I think we already have. Then secondly you could have certain lanes or roads that are designed for specific self-driving vehicles. This could help buses and trucks (in certain areas) get around. Then you would keep adding more of those, until many roads have those and very few manual lanes. It wouldn't immedia…

The issue with the intermediate 'specific lanes' step is three-fold 1) those buses and trucks will still require a human driver for most of their journey for dealing with the non marked sections so there's not too much gained because you're still paying someone the whole time. 2) the infrastructure is useless without the vehicles and the added capability in the vehicles is useless without the infrastructure so there's a chicken and egg problem with getting either started. 3) On top of those unless the lanes are completely segregated the only real thing adding hardware to lanes adds is making lane keeping easier. If not you still need all the accident avoidance cameras/lidar on the car the same as you need on a more 'free range' auto.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#66
post #19

The following will happen before self-driving cars: - Robotic trash cans that perfectly sort recyclables and compostables without any contamination - Drones that fly around and kill invasive plants - Landscapers that show up with robotic lawnmowers - A dishwasher that can load and unload itself automatically - My Tesla can keep in its lane when it passes an on ramp (ect) The problem, IMO, with self-driving cars is th…

> - Robotic trash cans that perfectly sort recyclables and compostables without any contamination Sorting trash is (at least to me) a surprisingly complicated problem. The frauenhofer here in karlsruhe is working on bulk sorting using computer vision with various sensors (sorting black plastic: https://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2016/June/s... and sorting bulk goods: https://www.iosb.fraunhofer.de/servl…

I wish there was much more research in that area. It’s a very hard problem and the benefit would be enormous. All the brain power that goes into ever better surveillance and selling ads would be much better used there.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#67
We need to regulate corner cases just like we did with trains, regular cars, medicine, e.t.c

Someone supposed dedicated lanes - that is goog thinking, dedicated intersections is the next step. No pedestrians allowed, but no lights whatsoever. Then, a section of city where regular cars cannot drive, and pedestrian areas are automaticaly driven at reasonably low speeds.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#68
post #6

> ... "autonomous vehicles" will be a reality for "ordinary people" in less than five years, Google co-founder Sergey Brin said Tuesday. That's from 2012 [1] [1] https://www.computerworld.com/article/2491635/self-driving-c...

Waymo had autonomous vehicles in Arizona giving selected members of the public rides without safety drivers in November 2017. They since stopped.

So if you really stretch you can call that an accurate prediction.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#69
post #25

I think it would happen this way: firstly you would automate things that go on a track - like trains - which I think we already have. Then secondly you could have certain lanes or roads that are designed for specific self-driving vehicles. This could help buses and trucks (in certain areas) get around. Then you would keep adding more of those, until many roads have those and very few manual lanes. It wouldn't immedia…

A problem with this is that I don't think there are very many places with available, extra lanes.

That prevents a smooth, gradual transition. Essentially you're proposing a massive public transport project that will progressively take over and replace existing transportation infrastructure.

I guess that's possible, but we could have done that without autonomous automobiles and it hasn't happened yet (well, not on a pervasive scale). Actually, if we could do that, I'm not sure we'd actually choose autonomous vehicles, as generally envisioned, as the mode of transportation.

Put another way: I think the whole lure of autonomous vehicles is the idea that they can adapt to existing infrastructure rather than the other way around. That's exactly what seems to make makes it possible for them to catch on in a big, general way, and eventually replace human driven cars.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#70

Could be saying that to defeat competition. Don't bother trying it's decades away! And Ford is notoriously behind the rest of the pack so I'd believe even less of what they say as well. I don't listen to executives with a stake in the game regardless of which side they are playing. The barriers to this seem mosly man made. Regulations, restrictions, taxi lobby, trucker unions, etc. A lot of it depends on where the li…

> Simply being safer than humans is easy- we are already there.

Seriously?

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