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Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

nytimes.com

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Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#51

Post by Robotbeat »

satyavh wrote: post #27

Even if it will be technically possible, and I'm pretty sure some day that will be solved. That's the easiest part. The biggest hurdle for self-driving cars will be ethics, such as 'the car brakes for a child suddenly crossing the street but then kills the old woman' or perhaps even make decisions based upon social status. Lots of options here. Those ethics have to be agreed upon, and they will likely differ per cult…

I strongly disagree. The philosophical issues are exaggerated. It’s the practical ones that matter and where the real hard work lays

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#52

Post by marcosdumay »

rwmj wrote: post #8

We don't need self-driving cars that can go anywhere (ie. level 5) for them to be widely useful. A car that only worked in bright sunshine on a preprogrammed set of roads would be immediately useful to me.

> ie. level 5

No, we need level 4. The problem is that the other 3 levels are worse than useless, so there's no point on deploying something that isn't mature.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#53

Post by gre »

satyavh wrote: post #27

Even if it will be technically possible, and I'm pretty sure some day that will be solved. That's the easiest part. The biggest hurdle for self-driving cars will be ethics, such as 'the car brakes for a child suddenly crossing the street but then kills the old woman' or perhaps even make decisions based upon social status. Lots of options here. Those ethics have to be agreed upon, and they will likely differ per cult…

How about a gunman stopping the car. Will the car just let the passengers be robbed or executed mafia-style? (I'm rewatching The Sopranos)

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#54

Post by kpU8efre7r »

Could be saying that to defeat competition. Don't bother trying it's decades away! And Ford is notoriously behind the rest of the pack so I'd believe even less of what they say as well. I don't listen to executives with a stake in the game regardless of which side they are playing.

The barriers to this seem mosly man made. Regulations, restrictions, taxi lobby, trucker unions, etc. A lot of it depends on where the line is drawn for safety or versatility. Does one vehicle need to operate in all climates with 0 accidents a year? Simply being safer than humans is easy- we are already there.

I'd be happy to even see more and more driver assist to the point where you can't crash even if you jerk the wheel and try to.

I think the bar has been set incredibly high, almost impossibly out of reach, by people interested in things staying the same.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#55

Post by d--b »

Just to play the devil's advocate: the level at which autonomous vehicles operate today was unthinkable in 2000. Literally unthinkable.

The progress in AI has been a massive step forward in a very short amount of time.

We may be years away, but the truth is we are one or two "massive breakthrough" away. These could happen tomorrow, or in 50 years, or never at all.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#56

Post by melling »

They mean in America, right?

Because I’m sure China will simply build dedicated roads to kickstart the process.

Dedicated self-driving roads for trucks to move products would likely be profitable.

There’s no need to solve the entire problem for self-driving to be worthwhile.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#57

Post by mikestew »

hateful wrote: post #25

I think it would happen this way: firstly you would automate things that go on a track - like trains - which I think we already have. Then secondly you could have certain lanes or roads that are designed for specific self-driving vehicles. This could help buses and trucks (in certain areas) get around. Then you would keep adding more of those, until many roads have those and very few manual lanes. It wouldn't immedia…

I think your prediction will turn out to be as closer or closer than any other. Certainly more on the money than the breathless “won’t be a problem in a few years when self-driving...”

But as I read your probably-on-the-money prediction, I was thinking “here we go again, dumping money for the two-ton wheelchairs while alternative transportation goes begging again.” Where’s my fucking barrier-protected bike lane? Or any bike lane at all?

Frankly, if that’s how it goes, I wonder if it happens at all. “Separate lanes for wealthy tech workers” is how that’s going to go. You know why we can’t even get bike lanes? Because people bitch and moan because they don’t personally use it. Expand that to an empty lane of moving traffic while the plebs sit in traffic.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#58

Post by bryanlarsen »

The really interesting thing (to me) is that Waymo operated self-driving cars on public streets in Arizona without safety drivers during November 2017 but stopped within a month. (google waymo "november 7 2017") Why did they stop? I'm sure it was partially because they realized there were some situations it wasn't handling properly, but my conjecture is mostly that expectations have changed.

I bet that Waymo cars are massively safer than human drivers in many situations, and that they're not as safe in a few others, and that there are a bunch of situations they don't handle well and "freeze up" or otherwise behave unpredictably. Waymo has probably realized that the bar isn't "as good as a human" but "significantly better than humans".

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#59

Post by imtringued »

satyavh wrote: post #27

Even if it will be technically possible, and I'm pretty sure some day that will be solved. That's the easiest part. The biggest hurdle for self-driving cars will be ethics, such as 'the car brakes for a child suddenly crossing the street but then kills the old woman' or perhaps even make decisions based upon social status. Lots of options here. Those ethics have to be agreed upon, and they will likely differ per cult…

The only ethical decision a self driving car has to make is to not actively kill people. What you are proposing sounds to me to be merely a way to stealthily kill people you don't like with self driving vehicles and then use the "ethical decision engine" to gain plausible deniability. To make decisions about "social status" you need a database of people and their "social status". So where are you going to find a database of people with low "social status"? Well every prison and police station has one and oh and for good measure we can also add some skin color detection because that type of analysis can be done in real time.

Or we could just build better self driving cars and accept that some people will be killed but in exchange they maintain the agency to improve their chances of survival instead of being randomly killed on the sidewalk because some stupid idiot wanted to shave off 3 seconds by jaywalking. Just do stupid shit, the car will kill someone else anyway.

The idea that we should encourage a moral hazard like this strikes me as incredibly disgusting.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#60

Post by _jal »

tarwater11 wrote: post #28

It seems like the easy answer is to kick human drivers off the road, right? That will eliminate a great deal of the unpredictability. Start with a small section of a city, and if the results are good, people will want to expand it.

Yeah, no. I will become one of those people who beats up robots. I live in San Francisco, and the reason I put up with the cost and garbage and stupidity in large part is because I don't need a car.

Cars already own non-urban everything, and can stay there. We need to be moving in the other direction. How's that ban on cars on Market St. going?

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