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Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

nytimes.com

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Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#11

Post by gwbas1c »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #4

Self-driving tech muggle here. Could someone explain to me why any average Joe with minimal intellect can drive a car using only a pair of eyes but it's difficult to build a fully self-driving car even with 8+ cameras, GPS, LIDAR and other sensors us humans don't have?

Because we really don't know how to emulate "thinking." Some overconfident people think they can, but it's a much harder problem than making an ACID-compliant relational database.

Also, because we tend to forget that technological innovation that takes a few decades, or a century, is extremely fast in a historical context.

Our ancestors aren't going to care if we have self-driving cars in 2020, 2080, or 2120.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#12

Post by maxfurman »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #4

Self-driving tech muggle here. Could someone explain to me why any average Joe with minimal intellect can drive a car using only a pair of eyes but it's difficult to build a fully self-driving car even with 8+ cameras, GPS, LIDAR and other sensors us humans don't have?

Humans actually aren't that great at driving - tens of thousands die on the road every year. Autonomous cars do great in ideal conditions (the suburbs of Phoenix AZ for example) but in conditions where the model lacks training data (i.e. bad weather) they have the same struggles as human drivers.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#14

Post by anextomp »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #4

Self-driving tech muggle here. Could someone explain to me why any average Joe with minimal intellect can drive a car using only a pair of eyes but it's difficult to build a fully self-driving car even with 8+ cameras, GPS, LIDAR and other sensors us humans don't have?

A) We can't put a brain-equivalent computer in the car, and can't program it to be as good as a brain at driving

B) We have higher standards for autonomous cars. The people saying it can never happen are saying it will never be perfect in all conditions, not that it will never be better than humans.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#15

Post by acollins1331 »

casefields wrote: post #2

Nothing makes a huge group of us cringe more, than people saying it's just around the corner. The worst part is it also comes from people who should know better. >Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control—usually called a “level five” autonomous vehicle—will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journa…

You'd be surprised how well the lidar systems on these actually do see in the rain. Snow and ice is another story, and hydroplaning as well, but again it's not the sensors hampering it here. It's the logic. It's much more complicated than it first appeared, and right now the AI for detection and recognition is light years beyond where the self driving car logic is. You can watch a few YouTube videos of people training networks to drive cars (and also look at how well every company is currently doing) to see how difficult it is to get an AI solution for driving behavior.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#16

Post by mojuba »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #4

Self-driving tech muggle here. Could someone explain to me why any average Joe with minimal intellect can drive a car using only a pair of eyes but it's difficult to build a fully self-driving car even with 8+ cameras, GPS, LIDAR and other sensors us humans don't have?

Because it's not just the sensors, there's a lot of purely human interaction going on on the road. Looking at the other driver at the intersection and trying to understand what to expect from them; same for someone crossing the road in front of you - is the guy drunk? Eye contact - nope, he looks fine, he will give way. Etc. etc

Come try to drive in Paris or Rome at peak hours. No way on Earth AI can handle this kind of traffic.

I always say autonomous cars will require infrastructural change, similar to the one happened when we transitioned from horses to cars. How exactly - I don't know yet, but with the current infrastructure Level 5 seems impossible.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#17

Post by CPLX »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #4

Self-driving tech muggle here. Could someone explain to me why any average Joe with minimal intellect can drive a car using only a pair of eyes but it's difficult to build a fully self-driving car even with 8+ cameras, GPS, LIDAR and other sensors us humans don't have?

Because driving a car is essentially analogous to full artificial intelligence.

We don't know how to do that. Like at all.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#19

Post by gwbas1c »

The following will happen before self-driving cars:

- Robotic trash cans that perfectly sort recyclables and compostables without any contamination

- Drones that fly around and kill invasive plants

- Landscapers that show up with robotic lawnmowers

- A dishwasher that can load and unload itself automatically

- My Tesla can keep in its lane when it passes an on ramp

(ect)

The problem, IMO, with self-driving cars is that there are other AI problems that are easier to solve. Until we start seeing more "consumer AI" in lower-risk products, self-driving cars will always be something coming in the future.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#20

Post by jacamera »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #4

Self-driving tech muggle here. Could someone explain to me why any average Joe with minimal intellect can drive a car using only a pair of eyes but it's difficult to build a fully self-driving car even with 8+ cameras, GPS, LIDAR and other sensors us humans don't have?

Because any average Joe with minimal intellect nevertheless has an intellect. It's impossible for a computer to actually understand or comprehend anything. Pattern matching, what computers are good at, has its limits.
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