Live data from Hacker News

Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

leonardofed.io

11–20 of 65 posts

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#11
post #4

Would be interested to see more in-depth numbers backing this up. Anyone know the state of publicly accessible tennis (shot-by-shot) data?

The data is pretty difficult to obtain, but there's some great analysis on Nadal done by Craig O'Shannessy. Craig O' Shannessy is Djokovic's strategy coach and I think a pioneer to the game. He has plenty of posts about Nadal, here is just to get you started, some of the articles are members only, but there are plenty of great ones that aren't..

https://www.braingametennis.com/?s=nadal

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#12
post #4

Would be interested to see more in-depth numbers backing this up. Anyone know the state of publicly accessible tennis (shot-by-shot) data?

I don't know of any tournament offering shot-by-shot data in their live scores (it's usually just the last hit in a point that's tracked by statistics, which I don't think says enough).

If anyone knows of shot-by-shot data for just a single tournament, that'd be great to see and explore :)

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#14
post #3

This is hardly original, Nadal's game has been well-analysed for ages now. However, this is also why a lot of (most?) people prefer Federer to him: because Roger's game is more original and creative. It's a bit like Toyota vs Tesla: one will always sell more cars and make more money because it executes better, but that's not always the point.

Highly disagree with your analysis of why most people prefer Federer to him. Most people prefer Federer because Fed was successful first, then Nadal. So, people were used to seeing Federer dominate and then Nadal came in.

Nadal is far from a clay court specialist. 2x Wimbledon champ, 5x finalist. 3 US open titles, 1 Aussie open title and 4x finalist.

Your metaphor of car manufacturers really doesn’t do Nadal justice. It’s more like incumbents always have the advantage, and the challenger always has a harder fight.

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#15
post #4

Would be interested to see more in-depth numbers backing this up. Anyone know the state of publicly accessible tennis (shot-by-shot) data?

Shot-by-shot stats for almost 6,000 pro matches, including over 300 of Nadal's and 400 of Federer's: http://www.tennisabstract.com/charting/meta.html

Raw data for a large subset of those matches: https://github.com/JeffSackmann/tennis_MatchChartingProject

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#16
post #11
post #4

Would be interested to see more in-depth numbers backing this up. Anyone know the state of publicly accessible tennis (shot-by-shot) data?

The data is pretty difficult to obtain, but there's some great analysis on Nadal done by Craig O'Shannessy. Craig O' Shannessy is Djokovic's strategy coach and I think a pioneer to the game. He has plenty of posts about Nadal, here is just to get you started, some of the articles are members only, but there are plenty of great ones that aren't.. https://www.braingametennis.com/?s=nadal

While I've seen his posts (eg on atptour.com), he is usually noticing correlation that might not be causation: eg. take a look at his "second serve win rate" article — https://www.atptour.com/en/news/second-serves-nadal-federer-...

It's obvious that it simply has good baseliners (players likelier to win a point once the ball is in play) and big 2nd servers at the top. But there's no data to support this, other than my gut feel of seeing big3 and Isner in there. But what about Kohlschreiber?

While I am sure he does better work for his clients, he seems to have access to shot-by-shot data which I think is most valuable.

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#17
post #4

Would be interested to see more in-depth numbers backing this up. Anyone know the state of publicly accessible tennis (shot-by-shot) data?

Shot-by-shot stats for almost 6,000 pro matches, including over 300 of Nadal's and 400 of Federer's: http://www.tennisabstract.com/charting/meta.html Raw data for a large subset of those matches: https://github.com/JeffSackmann/tennis_MatchChartingProject

Wow, great source, thanks.

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#18
Djokovic has a case for best tennis player ever with his winning record head to head over Federer and Nadal. Federer has a losing record against both. He racked up a lot of his titles before Nadal and Djokovic became world champion players.

Of course Nadal is best on clay.

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#19
post #3

This is hardly original, Nadal's game has been well-analysed for ages now. However, this is also why a lot of (most?) people prefer Federer to him: because Roger's game is more original and creative. It's a bit like Toyota vs Tesla: one will always sell more cars and make more money because it executes better, but that's not always the point.

Highly disagree with your analysis of why most people prefer Federer to him. Most people prefer Federer because Fed was successful first, then Nadal. So, people were used to seeing Federer dominate and then Nadal came in. Nadal is far from a clay court specialist. 2x Wimbledon champ, 5x finalist. 3 US open titles, 1 Aussie open title and 4x finalist. Your metaphor of car manufacturers really doesn’t do Nadal justice.…

Yes but if you remove the French open victories from Nadal total (down to 6) total both Djokovic (down to 14) and Federer (down to 19) have more than twice (or even 3x times) the number of grand slam Victories. (Same for M1000)

Re: Why Nadal is unbeatable on clay

#20
Funnily enough I think the best player of all time is Novak Djokovic. He has 15 major titles to his name and currently holds a winning record vs both Nadal and Federer. All three have comparable winning percentages over their careers. I think people pencil in Federer as the best just because he is older than Nadal and Djokovic.
Post reply on HN