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VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

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Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#91
post #89

Where is the anti trust investigation into these two ICE competitors teaming up to compete against Tesla?

What aspect of two competitors cooperating to compete against a third in a market where there are no clear winners yet, merits an antitrust investigation?

There are already several other big SDC alliances like Honda / GM Cruise, Toyota / Uber, and even the three-way Nissan-Renault / Jaguar Landrover / Waymo.

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#92
post #62
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have EV companies completely abandoned the swappable battery idea? I always thought thatd be the endgame. Some standardized battery design where you roll up on top of a station and it swaps the battery underneath the car. Or maybe this is something your car does for you before arriving. Which eliminates the amount of dead time tens of thousands cars will need to spend while using up expensive property in cities while…

NIO is currently building a network of battery swap stations in China. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/24/nio-builds-battery-swap...

That's awesome, I'm happy the idea didn't die out yet. China's adoption of EV is very inspiring.

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#93
post #67

Given that VW was caught cheating emissions on a global scale, and far worse than other carmakers, i find it surprising that anyone on hackernews would consider buying their cars.

I buy goods/services based on the future expected utility and effects of my purchase. If VW has a vehicle that's otherwise the best option for me to purchase, I'm not clear that there's any benefit to me, based on their past actions, opting to go with the next best alternative instead.

Boycotts come at the cost of the participants but to the benefit of the greater good. You’re being asked not to cross the picket line.

If you don’t believe VWs transgressions were enough to warrant a boycott, that’s a fair point to make. I’m not in the car market so I don’t even have an opinion on it, myself. But to the parent’s credit: they never meant to talk about you benefitting personally. It’s about teaching car makers that actions have consequences. For the greater good.

Put another way: how bad does VW have to mess up before you consider more than your personal benefit?

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#94
post #67

Given that VW was caught cheating emissions on a global scale, and far worse than other carmakers, i find it surprising that anyone on hackernews would consider buying their cars.

"Since the Volkswagen 'Dieselgate' emissions cheating scandal broke in September 2015, nearly every major automaker including--Daimler, General Motors, Suzuki and Mitsubishi have all been caught up in falsifying fuel economy figures or cheating on emissions testing."

I am not justifying VW's actions, but it's pretty obvious to any critical reader of news articles that VW was just the unlucky one whose head met the chopping block -- so in terms of a single targeted boycott of VW as a consumer, I don't think it makes sense. They still make great cars, despite some bad apples that work there (every company has them -- also see Lenovo / SuperFish).

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I buy goods/services based on the future expected utility and effects of my purchase. If VW has a vehicle that's otherwise the best option for me to purchase, I'm not clear that there's any benefit to me, based on their past actions, opting to go with the next best alternative instead.

Boycotts come at the cost of the participants but to the benefit of the greater good. You’re being asked not to cross the picket line. If you don’t believe VWs transgressions were enough to warrant a boycott, that’s a fair point to make. I’m not in the car market so I don’t even have an opinion on it, myself. But to the parent’s credit: they never meant to talk about you benefitting personally. It’s about teaching ca…

Toyota had an Unintended Acceleration problem that actually put peoples' lives at stake, and they denied everything / covered it up [1]. I don't recall people boycotting Toyota.

[1] Toyota to Pay $1.2B for Hiding Deadly ‘Unintended Acceleration’

https://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/toyota-pay-12b-hiding-deadly-...

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#96
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1000 driving hours is ok'ish for research Wouldn't it be better to use a simulated environment first. Maybe something using pybullet[1] and a script which maps real world to STL or OBJ files[2] 1. https://pybullet.org/wordpress/ 2. https://github.com/mkagenius/osm2maya

Depends on your goals. Today's virtual worlds are not accurate enought to allow to develop perception algorithms in simulation. In order to develop sensor fusion, you also need to simulate the output of all sensors including their specific characteristics. Apart from the model quality, there is another challenge: Simulation runtime, which is substantial (!) and - to my best knowledge - not even close to realtime. If…

How would something like Waymo's daily simulation training work? Is it just feeding it a larger set of random obstacles every day?

Wouldn't it quickly have negligible returns once it optimizes for the current simulation capabilities? Or are they constantly tweaking both the car model and the simulation data set?

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#97
post #87

If this trend continues, I really expect there to be a massive bidding war for Tesla before too long. When bears/shorts on tesla Complain about Tesla’s market cap, they seem to always forget the fact that Tesla is well ahead of any of these players in terms of both deployed hardware and data collection. This merger and investment brings Argo’s valuation up to you around $8 billion.

Tesla is ahead in many regards but they are too debt laden for a buyout at this point. A larger player would be smart to wait until the economy turns and Tesla can no longer meet debt obligations, then buy them out of bankruptcy.

> they are too debt laden for a buyout at this point

Enterprise value is indifferent to capital structure. A leverage-sensitive buyer would buy out the high-yielding debt in addition to the equity. Purchasing out of bankruptcy is riskier, in many levels, compared with a negotiated sale.

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#98

"Argo AI’s focus remains on delivering a SAE Level 4-capable SDS to be applied for ridesharing and goods delivery services in dense urban areas." Perhaps naive question from an outsider to the AV world: what does "SAE Level 4-capable SDS" mean?

According to Elon [1] Tesla will have this by the end of 2020. At some point reality has to kick in or not? [1] https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-full-self-drivin...

December 2015: Elon Musk drops his prediction of full autonomous driving from 3 years to just 2

https://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-drops-pre...

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#99
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We will not see any real self driving in our generation, and may be not even after. I think we can once we build purposeful infrastructure (think cars "on rails" with mesh-coordinated intersections). > Second to that, just how many self driving and AI startups are plain fraud? The amount of companies getting 9 digit valuations with nothing more than OpenCV hello worlds should make people to at least scratch their h…

> I think we can once we build purposeful infrastructure (think cars "on rails" with mesh-coordinated intersections). In that way, surely, but you will need to build a purpose built road network for that. Some self driving buses in China work like that. New, growing cities with centralised planning can afford that, others not so much.

Regardless, but if we want SDCs sooner, we need to constrain the problem.

Re: VW invests $2.6B in self-driving startup Argo AI as part of Ford alliance

#100
post #87

If this trend continues, I really expect there to be a massive bidding war for Tesla before too long. When bears/shorts on tesla Complain about Tesla’s market cap, they seem to always forget the fact that Tesla is well ahead of any of these players in terms of both deployed hardware and data collection. This merger and investment brings Argo’s valuation up to you around $8 billion.

Tesla is ahead in many regards but they are too debt laden for a buyout at this point. A larger player would be smart to wait until the economy turns and Tesla can no longer meet debt obligations, then buy them out of bankruptcy.

Would be nice for them, probably not gonna happen.
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