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Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

sciencemag.org

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Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#281

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

zaroth wrote: post #274
astanway wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Utility scale batteries are not yet a proven and deployed technology. Not to say there aren’t successes - Aliso Canyon and the AEMO installation in Australia have both been very well received by their respective system operators. But there’s a very long way to go before batteries will exist as a viable, general alternative to natural gas peaker plants.

I did not say that they are an alternative to natural gas peaker plants. I said that in markets where the spot price can spike to $8,000 per MWh, grid scale batteries are being deployed in order to serve those load spikes more economically. There is about ~1GWh of grid scale battery storage already deployed in the US alone. 150MW was deployed in 2019 Q1 - which represents 232% growth YoY . ~5 GWh is projected to be i…

I agree, proven and delayed, when and where it makes sense to do so.

It remains to be seen if this will become a common deployment generally speaking, though with more grid scale wind and solar being built it does seem likely, in my opinion.

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#282

Post by spydum »

aussiegreenie wrote: post #222
rmuesi wrote: post #84

I’ve always wondered about something, yet have never found anyone discussing it online. So maybe some smart people can help me out: a lot of people install solar on their rooftops. Much of the time this is done with the assumption that it will pay off financially because energy prices are currently at a certain rate and will continue to rise. But here’s my question: If its financially advantageous to install solar on…

You are correct but will talk about Australia. Australian rooftop solar is less than half the US prices. A 6.6 kW system installed retails at(AUD 2700 /USD 1870) and yet we have some of the most expensive electricity in the world at USD 0.25 per kW-h. In many places, 1 in 3 houses having rooftop solar. We have over 9GW currently installed and increasing at 1.5GW per year. All this new production is taking market shar…

|A 6.6 kW system installed retails at(AUD 2700 /USD 1870)

Is that right? Pretty sure in the US most kits that size are literally 10x that cost?

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#283

Post by ChuckMcM »

rmuesi wrote: post #84

I’ve always wondered about something, yet have never found anyone discussing it online. So maybe some smart people can help me out: a lot of people install solar on their rooftops. Much of the time this is done with the assumption that it will pay off financially because energy prices are currently at a certain rate and will continue to rise. But here’s my question: If its financially advantageous to install solar on…

Previous responses about my experience with my 5kW PV generation system in Sunnyvale, CA.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17509166

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19163235

Based on your question though, you assume that utilities are somehow optimizing to provide energy at the lowest possible price. This is not true. In the US the utility is granted defacto monopoly status in exchange for its ability to ensure that it can make the capital investments in core infrastructure without going broke. Such arrangements allow the monopoly to demand rate hikes for any pretty much any reason (even for paying of litigation judgements against it when it was found liable for burning down a town).

With the existing system, there is no future in which the utility company makes any large scale investment in renewables at scale because it doesn't make enough money on that. It is sad but it is also the truth.

When a community decides to not use the state monopoly it can act a bit more rationally, but even then you need the equivalent acreage to provide the solar.

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#284

Post by sien »

aussiegreenie wrote: post #222
rmuesi wrote: post #84

I’ve always wondered about something, yet have never found anyone discussing it online. So maybe some smart people can help me out: a lot of people install solar on their rooftops. Much of the time this is done with the assumption that it will pay off financially because energy prices are currently at a certain rate and will continue to rise. But here’s my question: If its financially advantageous to install solar on…

You are correct but will talk about Australia. Australian rooftop solar is less than half the US prices. A 6.6 kW system installed retails at(AUD 2700 /USD 1870) and yet we have some of the most expensive electricity in the world at USD 0.25 per kW-h. In many places, 1 in 3 houses having rooftop solar. We have over 9GW currently installed and increasing at 1.5GW per year. All this new production is taking market shar…

A quick search gives figures of AUD 5-7K for a ~6KW system.

https://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/6kw-solar-pv-systems-pri...

https://mcelectrical.com.au/blog/what-size-solar-system-do-i...

https://solaray.com.au/6kw-solar-power-system-price-output-s...

(The last one suggests that cheap 6KW systems are junk)

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#285

Post by amelius »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #283
rmuesi wrote: post #84

I’ve always wondered about something, yet have never found anyone discussing it online. So maybe some smart people can help me out: a lot of people install solar on their rooftops. Much of the time this is done with the assumption that it will pay off financially because energy prices are currently at a certain rate and will continue to rise. But here’s my question: If its financially advantageous to install solar on…

Previous responses about my experience with my 5kW PV generation system in Sunnyvale, CA. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17509166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19163235 Based on your question though, you assume that utilities are somehow optimizing to provide energy at the lowest possible price. This is not true. In the US the utility is granted defacto monopoly status in exchange for its ability to ensu…

Okay, but other parties than the energy companies can make the investment of rooftop solar. A simple construct could be that the rent you pay for the solar cells is less than your current energy bill, but higher than the point where the company breaks even.

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#287

Post by dclowd9901 »

I love the move to clean energy, but the pragmatist within me can't help but wonder: what's the downside to solar from an environmental perspective (if any)? Has anyone conducted any studies on the environmental impact of a large solar farm in a given area (to wildlife, weather, etc)?

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#288

Post by new_realist »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #283
rmuesi wrote: post #84

I’ve always wondered about something, yet have never found anyone discussing it online. So maybe some smart people can help me out: a lot of people install solar on their rooftops. Much of the time this is done with the assumption that it will pay off financially because energy prices are currently at a certain rate and will continue to rise. But here’s my question: If its financially advantageous to install solar on…

Previous responses about my experience with my 5kW PV generation system in Sunnyvale, CA. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17509166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19163235 Based on your question though, you assume that utilities are somehow optimizing to provide energy at the lowest possible price. This is not true. In the US the utility is granted defacto monopoly status in exchange for its ability to ensu…

In what world is the monopoly better off charging the same rates but with higher internal costs?

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#289

Post by dflock »

elihu wrote: post #242
StreamBright wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might be. Other sources claim it to be otherwise. "As of January 2010, the USGS estimated world total lithium reserves at 9.9×109 kg (economically extractable now) and identified lithium resources at 2.55 × 1010 kg (potentially economic). Most of the identified resources are in Bolivia and Chile (9 × 109 kg and 7.5 × 109 kg, respectively). World lithium production is currently on the order of 2 × 107 kg per year. If…

Another option would be to electrify the highways so that long-range batteries are rarely needed.

That's a boil the oceans solution, though - it's doesn't do anything useful until you've converted a large percentage of all roads, and it's very expensive.

Re: Giant batteries and cheap solar power are shoving fossil fuels off the grid

#290

Post by ttul »

rmuesi wrote: post #84

I’ve always wondered about something, yet have never found anyone discussing it online. So maybe some smart people can help me out: a lot of people install solar on their rooftops. Much of the time this is done with the assumption that it will pay off financially because energy prices are currently at a certain rate and will continue to rise. But here’s my question: If its financially advantageous to install solar on…

Ahh, but the “income” your rooftop solar generates (by offsetting your utility bill) is not taxed. At least not unless you declare it, which nobody does...

If your marginal tax rate is high, rooftop solar pays off just like utility scale solar.

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