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No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

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Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#121

Post by vannevar »

asdfman123 wrote: post #103

So, is this the end of online poker? Will it just become increasingly sophisticated bots playing each other online?

How do we know that online poker has ever been a fair game? Has anyone ever done a statistical study of verified real players to determine whether their collective historical winnings match what would be expected in a fair game? It seems like it would be much too easy for the operators to skim money in any one of a thousand ways. I've never understood the trust people place in online gambling in general.

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#122

Post by auggierose »

trishume wrote: post #110
asdfman123 wrote: post #103

So, is this the end of online poker? Will it just become increasingly sophisticated bots playing each other online?

I'm really confused about why stock for the company that makes PokerStars hasn't moved at all today: https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&q=TSE:+TSGI#scso=_wqsn... The fact that there's a published recipe for a superhuman bot that can be trained for $150 and run on any desktop computer sounds like an existential threat to their business. The main mitigating factor I can think of is that you'd need to also adversaria…

Most people on sites like PokerStars are dumb money who just like to gamble. You are not going to win much money against the Pros anyway. If you create a bot like that yourself, then you are just one more of these Pros, basically. If you don't, then you use some published / commercial bot, and PokerStars will be able to detect it.

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#124

Post by vannevar »

asdfman123 wrote: post #115
trishume wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm really confused about why stock for the company that makes PokerStars hasn't moved at all today: https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&q=TSE:+TSGI#scso=_wqsn... The fact that there's a published recipe for a superhuman bot that can be trained for $150 and run on any desktop computer sounds like an existential threat to their business. The main mitigating factor I can think of is that you'd need to also adversaria…

You know, now that we're talking about it I'm wondering if someone hasn't already come up with a better bot and has just been silently using it to win money online. I'm sure the sites have been crawling with bots as long as they've been around, some better than others. As long as it doesn't drive away too many customers I doubt the sites care. They still take a rake on bot games. However better AI could change that a…

What would stop the sites themselves from operating those bots? They wouldn't even need AI, just deal favorable "cards" to their own player.

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#125

Post by wolco »

noambrown wrote: post #51
andr3w321 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any chance of the code being released or a cepheus style answer key being provided? http://poker.srv.ualberta.ca/strategy

I don't think the poker world would be happy with us if we did that. Heads-up limit hold'em isn't really played professionally anymore, but six-player no-limit hold'em is very popular.

By not releasing it, it doesn't validate the experiment. How can we be sure there wasn't human support?

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#126

Post by vecter »

luckyalog wrote: post #119

isnt it just possible that the bot got lucky. It plays good. Maybe really good but does it play as good as a pro??? Would it win 9 wp bracelets. Would It make it to day 3 of the world series of poker. Chris Moneymaker got some damn good hands. Its part of the game. Its why this feat is unremarkable and why poker is a crap game for AI. The outcomes are very loose, especially when the reason these guys are pros is part…

"In a 12-day session with more than 10,000 hands, it beat 15 top human players."

That's not luck. See also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20416099

Also, Chris Moneymaker is a good poker player. He's no Phil Ivey or Tom Dwan, but he's still very good and has had decent results after his WSOP win.

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#127

Post by asdfman123 »

vannevar wrote: post #121
asdfman123 wrote: post #103

So, is this the end of online poker? Will it just become increasingly sophisticated bots playing each other online?

How do we know that online poker has ever been a fair game? Has anyone ever done a statistical study of verified real players to determine whether their collective historical winnings match what would be expected in a fair game? It seems like it would be much too easy for the operators to skim money in any one of a thousand ways. I've never understood the trust people place in online gambling in general.

What does trust have to do with it, though? When I played online poker for money, I was just content with the fact that I could win slightly more than I lost, and I was mainly only doing it for entertainment anyway. I mean, the whole game revolves around risk management. If you suddenly go against someone much better than you, you can always exit the game.

Thinking about online poker again gives me ideas now that I actually know how to program. I actually thought up and wrote out a good way to subtly steal money from people, but I'm deleting it because I don't want someone else to do it. (And I wouldn't do it myself because I have ethics.)

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#128

Post by dillonmckay »

noambrown wrote: post #120
dillonmckay wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When will you test it with 10 total players in a game?

The number of players is kind of arbitrary given the techniques we're using. We chose 6 because that's the most popular/common format for poker. I don't think there's any scientific value in also doing 10.

I am obviously a human, not a bot, but in my experience playing poker, it seems much more likely for me to be successful, personally in a 6 player game, whereas a 10 player game, I never seem to do well.

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#129

Post by asdfman123 »

snarf21 wrote: post #53
noambrown wrote: post #6

I'm one of the authors of the bot, AMA

How do you think these same pros would do in a follow-up match? As described in the article, the bot put players off their game with much more varied betting and with donks. Do you think the margin would decrease as players are exposed to these strategies? Players face mental fatigue and have so over-learned their existing strategies that it takes time to adapt new strategies and even more time for those new strategi…

I remember reading in the mid-to-late aughts that a lot of old-school poker players that used more swagger and intuition were starting to be run out of the game by kids who applied statistical methods.

Re: No limit: AI poker bot is first to beat professionals at multiplayer game

#130

Post by amelius »

noambrown wrote: post #113
n3k5 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What took you so long? I mean not the Pluribus team specifically, but Poker AI researchers in general. The desire to master this sort of game has inspired the development of entire branches of mathematics. Computers are better at maths than humans. They're less prone to hazardous cognitive biases (gambler's fallacy etc.) and can put on an excellent poker face. As a layperson who's rather ignorant about both no-limit…

I think it took the community a while to come up with the right algorithms. So much of early AI research was focused on beating humans at chess and later Go. But those techniques don't directly carry over to an imperfect-information game like poker. The challenge of hidden information was kind of neglected by the AI community. This line of research really has its origins in the game theory community actually (which i…

So will this be the end of online poker?
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