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Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

good.is

121–130 of 194 posts

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#121
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many, if not most Americans do not (pardon my lack of statistics). They work in service jobs that will be trivially automatable in our lifetimes. Most jobs that truly are "trivially automatable" have already been automatized. I think it's extremely unlikely that most or nearly most of Americans' jobs can be replaced by computers in our lifetimes, barring something like the Singularity happening (which I'm not holding…

> "Most jobs that truly are "trivially automatable" have already been automatized." Food service. Retail. Automobile repair. Lower-end healthcare jobs. Any job that doesn't require creativity can be automated. Do you doubt that a McDonalds with zero human employees will exist in our lifetimes? When farming and transportation are automated as well and Big Macs are produced with zero human involvement, will you agree t…

Actually I worked at a McDonalds in high school, did a lot of research on AI and robotics in college, and do automation with robotics now for the biomedical industry.

I've explained it in detail before when someone made your point, but suffice to say that nobody is going to automate a McDonalds anytime soon.

A robot equal to a human costs $50,000 at least. If you have someone working for $10 an hour, that is 5,000 hours or 2.5 years payback on the robot. And the robot is far less flexible (and $50k is a super low number). When you have 3-10 year pay off on a robot, why would you do it?

Robots really aren't built for menial tasks. Where do you see robots in the auto industry? Painting and welding. Painting is a skill job. Welding is a skill job. A good painter or welder is not making far off of what an entry level coder is making (if you don't believe me, find out how much it costs to weld oil pipeline or ship structure). They didn't take over Detroit to displace cheap labor, they did it to increase quality. The reasons for automation are usually increasing quality or doing something humans physically can't (speed, precision, strength etc). Rarely do you see it worthwhile to replace a human with a robot for a menial hand task.

So no, McDonalds will not be taken over by robots. The economics of it just don't make sense.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#122
post #106
post #55

I find posts like this one depressing. They're cynical and shortsighted. The premise of such posts is that if people were aware of who was getting a tax cut they would be against it. Put another way: the premise is that everyone is purely motivated by self-interest. There are two immediate problems with this line of thinking. The first is tha it ignores how aspirational people are.i remember a survey from the 2000 el…

> with declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. Unless you're talking about Japan, I'm going to ask that you provide hard numbers before throwing statements like this out.

Comparison of historical age distributions in the U.S. suggest this problem. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=u.s.+age+distribution+i... http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=u.s.+age+distribution+i...

This problem is much worse in China.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#123
post #110
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Today even the poor will get antibiotics at the ER when dying of infection" You're moving the goal posts a bit aren't you? For starters, those antibiotics will be followed by bankruptcy for the poor person in most cases. And most importantly, that alone isn't convincing me that quality of life for the poor is better than ever. I also didn't mention in my last comment that who is really seeing their quality of life d…

> For starters, those antibiotics will be followed by bankruptcy for the poor person in most cases. So? Bankruptcy eliminates debt, which is a good thing for poor folks. And yes, I've read the studies about "health care bankruptcies" - have you? They counted anyone who had health care expenses, and they included gambling and drug abuse as health care problems.

I don't need the studies, I'm living it.

Right now my girlfriend and I are having a hell of a time with medical bills. She recently started her job, but they won't give her health insurance for the first 5 months. To cover the gap we bought our own individual plan.

So far she has gone to the hospital for an allergic reaction to food she has never been allergic to before, and also needed to see 2 doctors along the way. Total cost is around $1,000 in 2 months, and her individual plan doesnt cover any of it because it was extremely limited. I also needed surgery recently and I've racked up a total of about $1,000 in the same 2 months (thats after my insurance paid quite a bit).

We just graduated college, so we have a sum total of about $2,000 in the bank. We have around $2,000 in expenses a month to live in our apartment, buy food, pay for our cars, etc. Our income is pretty good for two fresh college grads, but we just started so there were the expenses of moving out along with waiting for the pay to catch up.

It wasn't pretty, but we made it through with a $4k loan from my parents (which we have since paid back). Without that, we would be bankrupt or riddled with credit card debt.

Considering we have no kids, our expenses are So this isn't an academic exercise. It's not just "poor folks" that you so readily dismiss. Our healthcare system is a freaking mess and anyone denying it hasn't lived through the rough edges. Right now we'd love to have real health insurance for my girlfriend. I would love to put her on my insurance but I can't. Her parents would love to put her on their insurance but they can't. She would love to buy an individual plan that covered more than just catastrophic hospital visits, but she can't.

So maybe you should stop reading the academic studies and start talking to people living in the real world.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#124
post #86
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While we're pulling reasons out of the air, I think that the difference in wages betwen '85 and today is /clearly/ because of Saturn's wobble.

That's a ridiculous comment. The reasons were not pulled out of thin air. Relative to the population, it seems likely that more people are qualified to become deli managers today than they were in 1985 due to standardization and advances in technology. If more people can do a job, it will receive less compensation. At least be right if you're going to try to shoot down a comment with worthless sarcasm.

Really? Do you what percent of groceries stores we shop in today were around in 1985? Almost all of them. Same brands, same buildings, hell a lot of the people are the same too. My Dad was doing sales for Colgate and Nestle in 1970 and dealt with almost the exact same stores we have in our area today. A lot has changed in tech in 25 years, but the rest of the economy hasn't nearly as much. Last time I was at a deli counter, it was a bunch of meat and cheese that needed to be sliced and weighed by a bunch of teenagers. I don't think that has changed along the way at all.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Most jobs that truly are "trivially automatable" have already been automatized." Food service. Retail. Automobile repair. Lower-end healthcare jobs. Any job that doesn't require creativity can be automated. Do you doubt that a McDonalds with zero human employees will exist in our lifetimes? When farming and transportation are automated as well and Big Macs are produced with zero human involvement, will you agree t…

Actually I worked at a McDonalds in high school, did a lot of research on AI and robotics in college, and do automation with robotics now for the biomedical industry. I've explained it in detail before when someone made your point, but suffice to say that nobody is going to automate a McDonalds anytime soon. A robot equal to a human costs $50,000 at least. If you have someone working for $10 an hour, that is 5,000 ho…

The economics will make sense in our lifetimes. For a more concrete value, let's say 50 years.

Also, McDonalds is open far more than 40 hours a week. It's more like 6am to 1am, seven days a week. That gets paid off in 8.5 months. The real number would be a little higher than that due to fluctuations in demand throughout the day that would require extra robots that aren't fully utilized. Even if you triple the cost of the robot, that still isn't an unreasonable cost/benefit ratio. Within the next 50 years, it will be a no-brainer.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#127
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

someone unable to pay to heat more than one room had a dramatic photo of her showing her heating bill in her living room - with a 55" HDTV and Xbox360 in the same room. There's a difference between the ability to purchase one-off consumer goods and the kind of situation this person is in. Consider that those consumer goods may have been purchased before an economically catastrophic event such as an illness or a layof…

My inner libertarian is unable to comprehend the confusion of ideas that allows the purchase of a 55" HDTV et cetera without ~six months of rent in the bank. My inner liberal fires back with the complete, utter and deplorable lack of financial education and hence literacy in this country which is at the very least a partial cause of the most recent subprime financial kablooie. My inner conspiracy theorist mutters som…

My dad worked at one company for 28 years. He was fired. He had a year of emergency money in cash in the bank. Not rent, 12 months of money to cover every last little expense they had. They should have been set for any emergency, afterall, who has that much cash in the bank? And no outstanding car, credit card, or mortgage debt (lived in the same house for over 30 years)

It took him over 18 months to find a job.

Sure, there was a 42" HDTV in their house too. They still weren't spending money on ANYTHING. And he was working 50+ hours a week trying to find a job. Their expenses went up a little because he was traveling for interviews and networking at executive events. (Oh sorry, forgot to mention he was CEO of a 500 person company that was beating its targets even during 2008 when the stock market dropped like a stone).

So yea, if it can happen to him, it can happen to you. Tell your inner libertarian 6 months is nothing, and maybe he should find out what this current economy is really like.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#128
post #10

Technology allows people to be much more productive than the mean and the weight of most productivity is naturally skewed toward a small minority. This is not an injustice. A top programmer will be many times more productive than an average programmer and large codebases tend to include code from top programmers preferentially. Not only that, the value generated by top programmers (or project leader) is vastly more t…

A good stone age hunter may have been able to survive in situations that a bad stone age hunter couldn't have.

Frankly that's worth a whole lot more than being able to program better and I hope he got paid accordingly.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#129
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a ridiculous comment. The reasons were not pulled out of thin air. Relative to the population, it seems likely that more people are qualified to become deli managers today than they were in 1985 due to standardization and advances in technology. If more people can do a job, it will receive less compensation. At least be right if you're going to try to shoot down a comment with worthless sarcasm.

Really? Do you what percent of groceries stores we shop in today were around in 1985? Almost all of them. Same brands, same buildings, hell a lot of the people are the same too. My Dad was doing sales for Colgate and Nestle in 1970 and dealt with almost the exact same stores we have in our area today. A lot has changed in tech in 25 years, but the rest of the economy hasn't nearly as much. Last time I was at a deli c…

I was born in 1985, so I don't really know how things were back then. I'm guessing more people actually used butchers and deli counters rather than picking up pre-packaged meat. I'm also guessing that it was harder to actually slice the meat since that's basically automated today.

Regardless, the original comment was fairly reasonable and didn't deserve the response it got.

Re: Americans Are Horribly Misinformed About Who Has Money

#130
post #55

I find posts like this one depressing. They're cynical and shortsighted. The premise of such posts is that if people were aware of who was getting a tax cut they would be against it. Put another way: the premise is that everyone is purely motivated by self-interest. There are two immediate problems with this line of thinking. The first is tha it ignores how aspirational people are.i remember a survey from the 2000 el…

Are you suggesting that if you removed the grossly incorrect image of reality someone has and replaced it with a radically different one, that they would have the same opinions about closely related policy questions? I'm skeptical. People try to keep their view of reality in line with their political beliefs. How do you think Americans end up believing such wacky things?

The survey show something like 19% of people thought the were the top 1% and another 20% thought they would be someday.

If you're claiming that perpetuating this delusion would cancel out the effects of undermining the other delusion, you might be right. On the other hand, maybe curing this delusion too would compound the effect of curing the other delusion. Or hey, they might even be related.

Personally I just object to the tone of the rhetoric where politicians talk about "affording" or "paying for" a tax cut like they're giving away money. The reality is just that they're taking less money. Bit of a difference.

Personally, I think it's great when politicians use language that reminds people that it's our own government and our budget. Can I as a taxpayer, or we as taxpayers collectively, afford to move money from the "public expenditure" bucket to the "private expenditure" bucket? It's a reasonable question. What bothers me is politicians who suggest that spending cuts will just magically materialize and save the day if we don't pay enough taxes. Sorry, no, that doesn't just magically happen.

The alternative to reminding Americans of their responsibilities is to alienate them from the government, i.e., stop them from thinking like citizens of a democracy. Let them think the government can go completely to hell, ruin its credit and go bust, and the people will bear no responsibility. Let them think that government spending doesn't reflect the will of the people, so the people have no responsibility to pay for it. Or let them think that maybe government spending does reflect the will of the people, but that because they personally disagree with part of the spending, they aren't responsible for paying for the whole thing.

The truth is that it's in our interest to keep the government financially healthy and creditworthy. It makes a big difference to us whether the government pays its bills over the long term. It's also true that in a democracy we're responsible for the well-being of a government that doesn't follow our individual whims. When we ponder how to pay for government spending, we can't just think about how to pay for the spending we approve of. We're responsible for the whole thing, conservative or liberal, big spender or "fiscal conservative," whether we like it or not. I can't refuse to pay for the Iraq War just because I opposed it. Yet that's what pundits constantly implicitly ask us to do. They target conservatives especially: we should not pay enough taxes to support entitlements because entitlements are bad policy. Such-and-such is unsustainable; therefore, don't worry about paying for it.

Unfortunately, cutting taxes doesn't cause spending cuts. In a cash economy it might work, but in age of credit, when credit is necessary to get any business done, "starve the beast" is the practical equivalent of, "I'm going to eat so much that I'll be forced to exercise!" The one thing is only connected to the other by discipline (keeping revenue and spending in line) or catastrophe (failing to maintain our creditworthiness.) Pretending they're perforce connected under normal conditions, and hence the country should only collect enough revenue to pay for the spending we personally support, is a free pass to self-indulgence, because nobody in the country supports the entire budget. Since everybody opposes a significant chunk of federal spending, we would all agree on funding just a fraction of it. Then we could all blame the shortfall on the people who supported whatever fraction of spending we opposed. It would be -- no, it is -- a perfect scenario: nobody thinks the shortfall is our fault, even though we all support it!

That's absurd, of course. We're all responsible for the whole budget, even if we personally didn't support every piece of it. I'm responsible for finding some way of paying for the Iraq War. Conservatives are responsible for finding some way to pay for welfare benefits. It's our government; we're responsible. If we don't want to pay for something, we have to persuade our fellow citizens to oppose the spending, and if that isn't enough, we may need to reform our political processes. What we can't do, in an age when credit is a necessity for getting anything done, is agree as a nation not to pay for spending that we as a nation agree to indulge in. That's why it makes sense to ask if we can afford a tax cut.

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