51–60 of 150 posts
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Are some predicting a mini ice age as opposed to warming? A mini ice age worries me more than warming.
I think humans are pretty good at warming things up. So I would take a mini-ice age over global warming.
What if rather than doom we get global tropical paradise
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The most powerful supercomputers in the world are not even close in processing power of a 4 year old. Isn't it possible that some people can see patterns that the supercomputers can't?
That's simply not relevant, nor true.* Modeling climate change is much more complex than the simple heuristic pattern matching of the human mind. You're talking about a huge, complex, and fundamentally chaotic system; the latter property precludes the usefulness of heuristic based predictions by a 4 year old (or a human of any age). There's a reason we run massive numerical simulations on multi billion dollar HPCs. *…
Global climate change => higher air temperatures => more water in the air => more water available to fall out of the air.
Are there any record-setting weather patterns that global climate change can't account for?
It doesn’t matter whether or not they are actually caused by climate change.
It’s a level of annoying to me similar to when my dad uses a cold winter as evidence that there is no warming going on.
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The most powerful supercomputers in the world are focused on weather analysis and they can only project a few days out. Yet, some people think they've got it figured out.
I present to you a person who thinks that because we can't tell for certain that it's going to rain next Wednesday, we're have no idea if next summer will be hotter than next winter.
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That's simply not relevant, nor true.* Modeling climate change is much more complex than the simple heuristic pattern matching of the human mind. You're talking about a huge, complex, and fundamentally chaotic system; the latter property precludes the usefulness of heuristic based predictions by a 4 year old (or a human of any age). There's a reason we run massive numerical simulations on multi billion dollar HPCs. *…
I'm not sure what the use is of comparing human processing to "the type of operations required to simulate something like climate" since predicting the weather is not something our computers are particularly good at. Why is a 3D model even necessary? Personal anecdote: my grandmother is capable of predicting rain 1-2 days ahead of time based on smell and just "a feeling." Granted, we probably don't remember all of th…
See [0]. PDEs can be solved discreetly in three dimensions on a three-dimensional grid (3D model, sort of).
EDIT: I found this from NOAA -> Earth’s long-term warming trend continued in 2018 as persistent warmth across large swaths of land and ocean resulted in the globe’s fourth hottest year in NOAA’s 139-year climate record.
So the implication is that this is that maybe this is the wettest 12 months since 1879?
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Not to mention we have an extremely limited data set to work from when identifying what “normal” is.
We're not talking about vague shifting definitions of "normal." We're talking about "the wettest 12 months ever recorded," in the 125 years we have data for.
I feel like sometimes weather records are given higher significance than they really are in the grand scheme of things. Not saying this is one of them, but just trying to look at things in a balanced way.
I wonder if this will help to refill some of the depleted aquifers.
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The widespread willful ignorance about the differences between modeling weather and climate was amusing to me 20 years ago. But the joke is long past its sell-by date. No, we can't predict whether it will rain on this day in August in Augusta Georgia. Detailed forecasts will probably never get a lot better a month out. But we can predict that December 2019 will be colder than August 2019 across most of the USA, and t…
Not really. The delta in how data is collected in August and December is much smaller than 1980 to 2020. So such determinations aren’t as straightforward as you imply. Not to mention none of the catastrophic climate consequences predicted in 1980 came to pass, but somehow we are supposed to be so much more certain about the prognosticators of today.
Yes, AGW which was observed and predicted to get worse in 1980 and even earlier has come to pass largely as predicted.
The catastrophic effects of ozome depletion didn't occur because of massive steps to counteract it, like banning CFCs. So that can't be what you are talking about.
You are probably trying to reference the fringe theory of an impending ice age which got a lot of popular media attention despite being (or perhaps precisely because it was) a fringe theory, but... that's a broken analogy for obvious reasons.