The Tyranny of Trendy Ideas in Academia

When solving problem, start with the obvious, then go with more sophisticated...

Your example is just an example that people do not see the defect in the system, not people cannot come up with novel idea.

For example, about 10-15 years ago, the big craze in biology was microarrays, and the early papers made crazy promises about everything that they would deliver. With hindsight, it turned out almost all the early papers were fatally flawed and were drastically statistically underpowered: it turns out that living systems have a huge amount of noise, making clean measurements is difficult, and things are very complicated. The same exact thing played out with microRNAs, epigenetics (chipSeq data is exceedingly noisy), metagenomics, single cell genomics, etc.

Every single time you'd get 'trailblazers' who'd come into the field, do shitty rushed science, hype their results like crazy, and by the time people figured out that all the initial results were garbage, they'd have moved onto the new hot thing.

I guess the advantage that hard sciences have over the humanities is that eventually we'd figure it out and do things properly - but the amount of money that has been wasted in shitty research that didn't add anything to human knowledge is probably in the hundreds of billions in the last 15 years alone.

Same thing happens in business with the latest startup or investment fad. People are sheep.

The great mass of people who don't do much deep thinking act as a dampener and probably prevent our society from shaking itself apart as it whips to and fro across the space of all possible ideologies.

The most conspiracy-theory-esque passages:

1.

The statements that make people mad are the ones they worry might be believed. I suspect the statements that make people maddest are those they worry might be true.

2.

So if you want to figure out what we can't say, look at the machinery of fashion and try to predict what it would make unsayable. What groups are powerful but nervous, and what ideas would they like to suppress? What ideas were tarnished by association when they ended up on the losing side of a recent struggle? If a self-consciously cool person wanted to differentiate himself from preceding fashions (e.g. from his parents), which of their ideas would he tend to reject? What are conventional-minded people afraid of saying?

Here's the problem with this: it totally ignores the possibility of social learning (well, to be fair, he doesn't completely ignore that possibility, he just dismisses it in a couple of sentences), and with it, social learning about how some bad ideas can be particularly dangerous.

Here's an example. Anti-Semitism. Clearly a "taboo" idea in the sense that people get punished for uttering it; moreover, part of the reason that people get punished for uttering it is because those of us doing the punishing (myself included) are worried that people might start believing it.

But we're not worried that people might start believing it because we're worried it's true! I'm pretty sure I speak for essentially all other enforcers of that particular taboo when I say that we know that the claims that anti-Semites make are quite false indeed. (I'm assuming here that we're talking about the parts of anti-Semitic thought that make claims to be the sort of thing that can be true or false, like financial conspiracy theories.) Rather, we're worried that people might start believing it because we know history! We know that anti-Semitism is a belief system that is very easily exploited by evil people, who use it to trick people who are casting about for someone to blame for their misfortunes into finding an enemy and then giving the evil people political power in order to attack them. Because we know that anti-Semitism has that kind of mind-virus property (more like a mind-biological-weapon), we come down hard on people who utter anti-Semitic things. It has nothing to do with secretly worrying that they might be true.

The same is the case for lots of other taboo beliefs. (I can think of several that I don't want to mention, because I know that doing so will derail the subsequent conversation with deluded people saying "well, that COULD be true." But, again, historically, those beliefs have contributed to massively evil behaviors and I don't want to contribute to their propagation even indirectly.)