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Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

easylang.online

11–20 of 170 posts

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#11
It's more complicated (worse) than this. That the house has a small edge only tells a small part of the story.

When people go to vegas for a weekend, they might have a number in their head they are willing to gamble. If they dont, then that number is their bank account balance. Then they start flipping coins, and often they keep doing this until they go bust. They rarely cash out when up but they always lose when they go bust. They scale the bets as their bankroll grows. Essentially they are flipping coins for infinite time and just waiting to get a bunch of tails in a row, which is inevitable. The behavioral factors are bigger than the house edge.

The idea that people are rational is also absurd. Some people are driving to the slots _because_ they are depressed. Or they are there for fun but they lose a bunch of hands in a row and tilt and now they're betting everything on a longshot to win it all back and win some because they dont want to self-identify as a 'loser'.

You can only spend so much money on drugs and sex. Gambling is the only vice where you can lose billions. And these days, all you have to do is pull out your phone to place a trade or a bet.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#13
post #2

I have a pet peeve about Monte Carlo methods; although it might be more fairly characterised as a rookie mistake I saw once. MCM are not strong if the tail variance isn't an important feature of what is being modeled. I've seen simulations where the modeler starts with an analytic model - from which they could trivially calculate the mean and variance of a KPI - then used a MCM simulation to find out essentially what…

Well yeah MC is usually meant for problems that are otherwise intractable, e.g. sampling complex Bayesian posteriors, or solving stochastic differential equations.

Using it for an answer you could easily get analytically isn't very useful outside of education/fun.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#14

Blackjack has been a source of success for me though I'm unconventional in my betting strategy which seems to enrage the other players even when I break the dealer consistently.

Dont they kick you out if you're consistently winning?

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#15
post #2

I have a pet peeve about Monte Carlo methods; although it might be more fairly characterised as a rookie mistake I saw once. MCM are not strong if the tail variance isn't an important feature of what is being modeled. I've seen simulations where the modeler starts with an analytic model - from which they could trivially calculate the mean and variance of a KPI - then used a MCM simulation to find out essentially what…

Really dependents on your philosophy. Would you rather do error propagation using this method http://lectureonline.cl.msu.edu/~mmp/labs/error/e2.htm or would you rather perturbate your variables and resolve mean and variance. My philosophy drives me towards the computational approach over the analytical mathematical approach.

[deleted]

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#16
Blackjack on the strip has become a boiling frog of sorts. Everytime I go back the rules are tweaked a little more in the house’s favor.

3:2 payouts for Blackjack were gone years ago, but more recently no even money for Blackjack if dealer shows an Ace, only split once for two Aces...not worth it at that point.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#17

Blackjack has been a source of success for me though I'm unconventional in my betting strategy which seems to enrage the other players even when I break the dealer consistently.

You've never broken the dealer. Dealer has specific rules in blackjack of when to hit or stand that are completely independent of your cards, betting amount or strategy, emotional attitude, or how good or bad your breath smells.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#18

Blackjack has been a source of success for me though I'm unconventional in my betting strategy which seems to enrage the other players even when I break the dealer consistently.

Dont they kick you out if you're consistently winning?

Not necessarily. Casinos will kick you out for a particular set of behaviors. Just winning isn't enough.

Playing a minimum bet for a long time, then suddenly increasing to the max near the last half of a shoe is a good way to get a casino to ask you to stop playing blackjack.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#19
post #4

If you want to really know why you shouldn't gamble (for profit... gambling for fun, with discipline, can be satisfying), read this quintessential book: Scarne’s Complete Guide to Gambling What you will probably take away from this book is that the house wins when you win. And the reason they win is that they don't pay actual odds. Take the roulette wheel as a simple example. There are 37 (or 38 in the case of 0 and…

There is a pinball museum off the strip in Vegas.

Played until my wrists ached on $5.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#20

Blackjack has been a source of success for me though I'm unconventional in my betting strategy which seems to enrage the other players even when I break the dealer consistently.

Dont they kick you out if you're consistently winning?

Only if you're winning a lot of money. They don't care that a small fish wins a few hundred dollars every now and then.
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