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The Coming Boeing Bailout?

mattstoller.substack.com

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Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#21

Post by sokoloff »

onli wrote: post #4
KeAShizuku wrote: post #2

I don't think things are going that badly for Boeing. There are only two aircraft producers and Airbus is at full capacity. The airline industry is still growing. You would actually have to try really hard to fuck this up. It would be amusing if the US government gives them money though. European alleged subsidy of Airbus is the latest accusation of Trump and one of the causes of the US-EU trade war.

> You would actually have to try really hard to fuck this up. Murdering 350 civilians with lies and negligence for profit and "shareholder value" just might suffice. They put a plane into the air that flies itself automatically into the ground after all, with no opportunity for the pilots to save the plane. You can't fuck up more. > It would be amusing if the US government gives them money though. The US is already g…

> They put a plane into the air that flies itself automatically into the ground after all, with no opportunity for the pilots to save the plane. You can't fuck up more.

Though Boeing has significant contribution, if you read the report on the Ethiopian Air 737-Max crash, I think it's easy to see several places where there was ample opportunity for the pilots to save the plane, particularly in light of the LionAir crash. Even in the LionAir case, a prior LionAir crew did save the airplane on an earlier flight by following the manufacturer provided checklist.

Boeing made a serious design error here. However, it's not nearly as serious as the quoted sentence, IMO.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#22

Post by Frost1x »

MobileVet wrote: post #7

While Boeing clearly participates in a duopoly... cash flow may necessitate a bailout. Cash on hand is going to get hammered by penalties for out of service planes and lost revenues due to the inability to deliver new planes. Outside of that, it will be interesting to see how endemic the issues were. Here is hoping that this was an isolated incident. The nightmare scenario would be multiple models suffering from a wi…

This is part of the reason critical markets shouldn't be allowed to get pinned down so far by one or two big players gobbling up competitors through mergers and buyouts--even 4 gets risky. If there was truly healthy competition in the sector (a requirement for capitalism to work effectively) then Boeing going down wouldn't have nearly as much of a significant impact on society--it should be welcomed. Other competitors would rejoice and increase volume to meet demand and their shoddy practices would be cast aside with the consumer also winning in the process.

In the arguable case of a market where extensive capital is needed where no one would enter and/or competition really isn't feasible, that's a case for government granted monopolies with stringent oversight (similar to utilities like water, power, ...) or an actual public system.

Instead here we are, yet again, with corporate welfare and socialism potentially on the table for groups that shouldn't need it while the average citizen gets little-to-no breaks when they make mistakes (which often aren't even due to greed driven corner cutting).

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#23

Post by onli »

sokoloff wrote: post #21
onli wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You would actually have to try really hard to fuck this up. Murdering 350 civilians with lies and negligence for profit and "shareholder value" just might suffice. They put a plane into the air that flies itself automatically into the ground after all, with no opportunity for the pilots to save the plane. You can't fuck up more. > It would be amusing if the US government gives them money though. The US is already g…

> They put a plane into the air that flies itself automatically into the ground after all, with no opportunity for the pilots to save the plane. You can't fuck up more. Though Boeing has significant contribution, if you read the report on the Ethiopian Air 737-Max crash, I think it's easy to see several places where there was ample opportunity for the pilots to save the plane, particularly in light of the LionAir cra…

I was honestly under the impression that the provided checklist did not work, as it included elements that did not work in the 737-MAX as expected when coming from earlier models. Plus the fact that the forces were to strong, the pilot could not manually correct the course.

Besides, did the pilots have opportunity to read and implement the new checklist?

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#24

Post by imeron »

sokoloff wrote: post #21
onli wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You would actually have to try really hard to fuck this up. Murdering 350 civilians with lies and negligence for profit and "shareholder value" just might suffice. They put a plane into the air that flies itself automatically into the ground after all, with no opportunity for the pilots to save the plane. You can't fuck up more. > It would be amusing if the US government gives them money though. The US is already g…

> They put a plane into the air that flies itself automatically into the ground after all, with no opportunity for the pilots to save the plane. You can't fuck up more. Though Boeing has significant contribution, if you read the report on the Ethiopian Air 737-Max crash, I think it's easy to see several places where there was ample opportunity for the pilots to save the plane, particularly in light of the LionAir cra…

Human error by flawed UX is still a design issue.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#26

Post by 420codebro »

bhouston wrote: post #18
consp wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Boeing and Airbus have (somewhat credibly) argued the other is getting subsidies already. Would that really change anything? Bombardier draw the short straw as it was smaller and wasn't able to combat the duopoly of Boeing/Airbus. (Embraer, Sukhoi and Irkut are also in the game but more in niche market shares).

> Bombardier draw the short straw as it was smaller and wasn't able to combat the duopoly of Boeing/Airbus. It was able to compete though on the merit of its products before the duties came into play. The duties were designed to kill its momentum and it did -- look at the loss of orders in 2017 compared to 2016. But once the issue is resolved, the orders in 2018 are huge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_…

On the merit of their products? Lol the bailout seems to indicate otherwise mcbrobro.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#27

Post by willyt »

bradleyjg wrote: post #13
MobileVet wrote: post #7

While Boeing clearly participates in a duopoly... cash flow may necessitate a bailout. Cash on hand is going to get hammered by penalties for out of service planes and lost revenues due to the inability to deliver new planes. Outside of that, it will be interesting to see how endemic the issues were. Here is hoping that this was an isolated incident. The nightmare scenario would be multiple models suffering from a wi…

Why necessitate? Businesses sometimes go under, that’s how the system works. The government ought not pick winners and losers.

I’m guessing that it’s considered a strategically important business to US defence? The US government would presumably be unwilling to allow all those teams of specialist engineers and technicians to be disbanded and all the facilities and assets to be sold off as would happen when a normal business fails.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#28

Post by sokoloff »

onli wrote: post #23
sokoloff wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They put a plane into the air that flies itself automatically into the ground after all, with no opportunity for the pilots to save the plane. You can't fuck up more. Though Boeing has significant contribution, if you read the report on the Ethiopian Air 737-Max crash, I think it's easy to see several places where there was ample opportunity for the pilots to save the plane, particularly in light of the LionAir cra…

I was honestly under the impression that the provided checklist did not work, as it included elements that did not work in the 737-MAX as expected when coming from earlier models. Plus the fact that the forces were to strong, the pilot could not manually correct the course. Besides, did the pilots have opportunity to read and implement the new checklist?

There was no new checklist. (Arguably, this may be a problem.)

The existing checklist was unchanged from other 737s and the required actions were all "memory items" (items which must be recalled and implemented by the crew from memory, prior to referencing and completing the written checklist in the QRH). Any 737 crewmember would have had to have demonstrated those checklist items, from memory, prior to receiving their type-rating to fly the jet. Runaway trim is a "no joke" event in nearly any type and is a memory item in any type I'm familiar with.

The Ethiopian Air crew seemed to correctly diagnose the issue, got the aircraft somewhat under control and then, in an attempt to fix the trim issue, undid the corrective checklist item, ran the trim aircraft-nose-up using the thumb switch (so far, excellent!!) and then, inexplicably, left the stab trim power enabled without commanding further aircraft-nose-up. So, they diagnosed the issue, initially did all the right things, then undid them [with good reason], then failed to re-do them.

(I agree that Boeing still wears a lot of blame here. It's just not the case that the crews were helpless and unaware passengers.)

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#29

Post by bradleyjg »

nabla9 wrote: post #16

Governments should have predatory practice towards shareholders in these cases. If company can't be allowed to fail (strategically important or government regulated sector like banking) there should be 'fluid bankruptcy' option. When they default or fail their obligations, the next day the government owns them without operations being disrupted. Shareholders lose everything overnight and any private debt would have s…

There is a third group of people whose incentives towards risk need to be taken into account -- employees. When the government takes over the employees should be moved to the GS or SES schedules.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#30

Post by betimsl »

Great article.

Now:

> In 1993, a Defense official in the Clinton administration, Bill Perry, called defense contractor CEOs to a dinner, nicknamed “the last supper.”

Bill you devil.

Jokes aside, now imagine you're this guy and have all this power in your hands, imagine that for a second, what would you do? If you ask him, he did great. Because all he knows is that, he can't see past the situation because he is a small minded creature. This begs a question is he responsible? Well I don't think so. It's us, us people that go to polls and vote.

Now imagine the frustration of the good Boeing engineers of that time. You probably can't because of the today's culture, a culture where nobody is giving a shit about anything.

No matter what though, it's very important not to lose the compass and not forget for what you have fought when the time comes.

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