Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#61

Post by conductr » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 2:45 AM UTC

anm89 wrote: post #34

conductr wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And on a per capita, probably pollutes a lot more (I have no data on this). We just can afford to keep it out of _our_ water.

I'm conflicted about this. As an American we are voracious consumers and highly ineffecient about it but I've been repeatedly shocked in trips to Taiwan and Vietnam about how the consumption there seemed frequently even more wasteful than what I was used to back home, especially in terms of plastic packaged in plastic packaged in plastic Russian doll scenarios that seemed totally egregious but really common. On the o…

I think Taiwan would rank closer to the top billion than the bottom, so maybe supports my thought?

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#62

Post by waste_monk » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 3:20 AM UTC

I think we're already past the point of no return and the collapse of human civilisation as we know it is inevitable.

Between resource shortages and famine, and the inevitable resource wars associated with that, I doubt there will be more than ~500m humans alive globally by 2100.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#63

Post by primroot » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 3:48 AM UTC

futureastronaut wrote: post #60

primroot wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't upvote this enough. The way I see it, the Holocene is over, no more neolithic civilization, unless we keep powering the machines with lots of energy in order to cling to the past (which is a big part of the use we have been giving to machines, and the reason why Modernity is a sham) as mythified by our collective amnesia. We need to integrate our lives with the ecosystem in order to create virtuous cycles of…

You won't find much neolithic civilization outside of North Sentinel Island and the deep Amazon.

Thanks, I stand corrected. I abused the term. I meant to say civilization as a society where humans depend primarily on agriculture for their survival, as the appearance of such a society coincides with the start of the Holocene.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#64

Post by mariushn » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 7:32 AM UTC

Lost hope.

The 3 big issues that I think prevents us solving it are

1. Tragedy of the commons

When a country/company wants to make money by damaging the environment in the process, the money come to the country/company now, but the damage is spread world-wide. If the pollution would stay only in that country/city, it would be different. So, the choice is natural, especially thinking about government 4-year terms.

2. We always put ourselves first, rest of the city/country much further, and rest of the world... doesn't matter. What people want, by human nature, is to satisfy their own needs & comfort.

Examples:

* Why wait for a bus or use an electric bike when one can just drive a 2 tonnes car to move oneself? It's comfortable and cheap.

* Norway refuses to drill for billions of barrels of oil in Arctic, leaving ‘whole industry surprised and disappointed’. Government made the right choice, but a few (prosperous already) affected by making less money complain: https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/norway-oil-drillin...

* France introduces a diesel tax, to reduce pollution, which affects everybody's health. But, wait, some need to pay a little more? Let's protest! Tax was cancelled: https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/11/french-protes...

* The Bełchatów Coal mine & Power station in Poland. Hundreds of people employed there, they are happy with it. Should the plant be closed to stop pollution? What about our jobs? No way! And no, getting only 20% of salary for free (basic income) and having to learn stuff to maybe find a new job in renewables is not acceptable.

3. The environment effects of what a one person/community/country does, bad or good, are hard to see in the short term. Only the downsides are clearly visible in the present. So, taking the correct action is quite hard.

Unfortunately, I don't see how to overcome these. Would be glad to be proved wrong!

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#65

Post by mariushn » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 7:38 AM UTC

iso1337 wrote: post #19

state_less wrote: post #12

I believe we'll eventually get our act together and survive with some pretty serious damage to the environment. When people are sufficiently desperate, you'll see more change. You can get ahead of the eventualities and help by learning how to survive without the use of fossil fuels which is difficult but more or less achievable today. Use electric bikes, cars and motorcycles. Work remotely. Try to find an efficient h…

I think that there needs to be an equivalent of a climate 9/11 event. Maybe Miami getting wiped off the map by a category 9 hurricane (and call me a pessimist but the loss of a city in a developing country to climate change just won't register in the minds of the developed world). We as a species are very emotionally driven and slow trends and statistics just aren't as compelling as a big event. I don't know how bad…

Even then... I saw 9/11 an incredible opportunity to start a nation-wide movement to drop off oil. Because look what they did! Let's stop pouring money in the industry that supports them! Let's change our ways from driving SUVs just to eat out and buy groceries.

But... money come first. Always. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_We_Fight_(2005_film)

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#66

Post by mariushn » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 7:44 AM UTC

larkeith wrote: post #48

Absolutely not. Even as we start to see major changes to weather patterns globally, most people put up little more than nominal effort to avoid CO2 emissions and other damaging activities - for example, air traffic continues to grow [1]. We're likely to hit the point of no return on CO2 emissions within two decades [2]. Those with the resources to work towards reversing the damage at that point will also be the ones…

I found it ironic how 4 photos of the Europe heat wave had asian people who traveled half the globe: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48766481

In no way I'm blaming Asians. Photos in Asia would show lots of non-Asians. It's just an example of how we as humans always put our experiences first.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#67

Post by mariushn » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 7:48 AM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #28

I believe in cycles. Things get worse, things get better. You never hear about when things get better. For the last several years, people were saying that CA was in drought and that this was the "new normal". I didn't believe it, and I was right. This year is particularly colder than last year, even though we had 2 extremely hot days. This is how weather works, it's always changing. I think the next few years will co…

"Companies" are run by people and they employ people. You don't care because you don't work there. When one has that job and doesn't know how to do anything else (no, they can't learn programming), "the company" must go on. Human nature.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#68

Post by tjansen » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 8:16 AM UTC

I like the Adams Rule of Slow Moving Disasters: whenever humanity can see a slow-moving disaster coming, we find a way to avoid it. I don't doubt that we will continue to emit CO2 for a while, and the temperature will keep climbing, but when things get unbearable, people will act swiftly.

I expect that the hotter earth becomes, and the more we try to replace fossil fuels, the more electricity is needed. A hotter earth means air conditioning almost everywhere, huge desalination plants to provide water and so on. So the most important thing in the world is to create energy cheaply without emissions. I guess that there will be a much higher focus on nuclear fusion research to have a clean source for those energy needs, and in the meantime conventional nuclear plants will be used.

If we reach a point where temperatures become too bad, geo-engineering will also be a huge topic.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#69

Post by vixen99 » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 11:35 AM UTC

lancewiggs wrote: post #40

I'm terrified. For example: The ice cap melts are accelerating a lot faster than modelled. The mechanisms are not yet perfectly understood. The major flows of sea water (e.g. Gulf Stream) are at risk of changing completely with the temperature changes, which means dramatic changes in climate for Europe (colder), USA (warmer) (for example) are possible. Who knows - and the answer is nobody really. The acidification of…

Why the 'we'? https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-carbon-emissions-in-... - etc., https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/10/24/yes-the-u-s-... (2017 admittedly).

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#70

Post by jamesb93 » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:04 PM UTC

To anyone reading this and thinking - well what can I do? Become vegetarian. TODAY. I eat 95% vegetarian now and I don't notice the difference whatsoever, if anything, I don't crave meaty foods anymore. The 5% is once a month kind of things such as pizza that have some ham on them. Changing to vegetarian is one of the best things you can do to help.