Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#41

Post by gremlinsinc » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:09 AM UTC

Skunkleton wrote: post #24

oneepic wrote: post #13

Yes, absolutely. Put enough money into it and scientists/startups will figure it out. I'd like to see someone prove that we can't reverse most of what we've done (besides extinction of different species which is obviously bad).

The scary thing isn't the current state of the climate. The scary thing is passing a point of no return where climate change becomes non-linear and self-feeding. According to many reports, we are not far off from that point. Still, we are in a world where a non-negligible portion of the population believes that climate change is fabricated, or at least overstated. Scientists won't be able to really do anything other…

I wonder even at that point, could we refreeze the earth via megastructure in space, make it miserable for most of us during winters and even summer for a time to 'reboot' the polar caps/antarctica? Or maybe we could make the mega structure only affect specific locales so the rest of the world doesn't suffer as much from extremely cold spells.

I don't think that's the only fix we need though, we'd also need a way to clone and rebuild lost species like penguins and polar bears, and micro organisms, fauna, ocean creatures, etc...

Reforestation on a grand scale and global outlawing of Amazon Forest depletion would be a wise thing as well... I think there are science-based solutions but I'm at a loss of how we begin researching and implementing anything esp. w/ our polarized politics of late that could give a shit.

I guess when it hurts bad enough we'll stop putting bandaids on things and really try to fix stuff, especially when the entire fate of mankind lies in the balance, until we get to that point sadly it'll probably keep going the way it has been.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#42

Post by walrus01 » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:10 AM UTC

No, not really. I think the unfortunate dystopian cyberpunk future we're going to see is that wealthy developed nations will be able to afford technological Band-aids, like increasing use of air conditioners everywhere fed from big grid connected photovoltaic plants. People with much less economic means will suffer and be displaced.

I predict massive refugee crises with mass-migration caused by climate change within my own lifetime.

It recently hit 54C in Rajasthan.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#43

Post by slg » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:11 AM UTC

iso1337 wrote: post #19

state_less wrote: post #12

I believe we'll eventually get our act together and survive with some pretty serious damage to the environment. When people are sufficiently desperate, you'll see more change. You can get ahead of the eventualities and help by learning how to survive without the use of fossil fuels which is difficult but more or less achievable today. Use electric bikes, cars and motorcycles. Work remotely. Try to find an efficient h…

I think that there needs to be an equivalent of a climate 9/11 event. Maybe Miami getting wiped off the map by a category 9 hurricane (and call me a pessimist but the loss of a city in a developing country to climate change just won't register in the minds of the developed world). We as a species are very emotionally driven and slow trends and statistics just aren't as compelling as a big event. I don't know how bad…

It is worth remembering that less than 2 years ago thousands of Americans were killed and 3 million plus Americans spent months without electricity due to a hurricane. It is impossible to link that single event to climate change since climate is about trends and not single events, but that event came and went and generally speaking the country barely seemed to care.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#44

Post by NeedMoreTea » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:14 AM UTC

Not at all.

Back when ozone depletion was being discussed, so was CO2. Thatcher was as keen on CO2 action as CFC action. Back then I was very optimistic.

James Burke, a famous old UK TV science personality known for Tomorrow's World, Connections, and The Day the Universe Changed, made a programme in 1989 called "After the Warming", a view from 2050 looking back. Find it on YT, forgive the late 80s CGI, and be surprised, and a little depressed. He gets much right, and a little of the then new science wrong, only it turns out he was pretty optimistic too.

Decades of inaction and international treaties (Rio-1992!!, Kyoto, Paris) that barely scratch the surface, or require no commitment from developing nations. Then all the disingenuous attempts at briefing against fact and science, or claiming we can't afford to, or we'll adapt, squelched all that optimism.

Now I think IPCC will turn out to be at the wildly optimistic end of the scale, as their projections presume we will eventually get off our ass and try. Seems we have to hit rock bottom, and too late, but right under our noses first.

I still have a feint hope the world will prove me wrong...

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#45

Post by crimsonalucard » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:15 AM UTC

Skunkleton wrote: post #24

oneepic wrote: post #13

Yes, absolutely. Put enough money into it and scientists/startups will figure it out. I'd like to see someone prove that we can't reverse most of what we've done (besides extinction of different species which is obviously bad).

The scary thing isn't the current state of the climate. The scary thing is passing a point of no return where climate change becomes non-linear and self-feeding. According to many reports, we are not far off from that point. Still, we are in a world where a non-negligible portion of the population believes that climate change is fabricated, or at least overstated. Scientists won't be able to really do anything other…

It's too late man.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#46

Post by primroot » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:15 AM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #28

I believe in cycles. Things get worse, things get better. You never hear about when things get better. For the last several years, people were saying that CA was in drought and that this was the "new normal". I didn't believe it, and I was right. This year is particularly colder than last year, even though we had 2 extremely hot days. This is how weather works, it's always changing. I think the next few years will co…

I think a new normal, in the sense of a new steady (less favorable) state of the climate, is not something that is being suggested by the science. Just to point out one relevant fact, consider that the current CO2 levels were present at least going as far back to Pliocene geological epoch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pliocene_climate. I think it is reasonable to expect at least plenty of instability as the Earth gets closer to the temperature and sea level of that time.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#47

Post by crimsonalucard » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:17 AM UTC

gremlinsinc wrote: post #29

Yes and no...on the current course of denying global warming -- we're screwed. If we could somehow end poverty, and move a large swath of unemployed/undereducated people into science industry so they can focus on solving problems, maybe we can build a mega structure to block out sunlight, capture existing carbon in the atmosphere and figure ways to bring back arctic ice, --then maybe we can reverse things...we also n…

We have the ability to solve the problem now.

We just don't have the business incentive to do so. It's not about adding people, It's about adding incentive.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#48

Post by larkeith » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:17 AM UTC

Absolutely not.

Even as we start to see major changes to weather patterns globally, most people put up little more than nominal effort to avoid CO2 emissions and other damaging activities - for example, air traffic continues to grow [1].

We're likely to hit the point of no return on CO2 emissions within two decades [2]. Those with the resources to work towards reversing the damage at that point will also be the ones who can afford to comfortably adjust to changes in climate - which do you think will take priority? Meanwhile, those who are going to be hit hardest overwhelmingly cannot afford to avoid contributing to global warming, let alone actively combat it.

I'm sure civilization will survive - it's more a question of whether we'll ever do anything significant to stop climate change, or if we'll have to adjust to whatever new equilibrium the environment enters - and how much biodiversity and population loss will we sustain on the way there?

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/564769/airline-industry-...

[2] https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/1085/2018/

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#49

Post by agentultra » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:22 AM UTC

I don't believe that the next ~200 years will be anything but catastrophic for life on this planet. I'm not hopeful that we can "solve" climate change or avert catastrophe. As I understand it we're in the early phases of a sixth mass extinction event caused by many factors. Most of them anthropocentric.

The only thing we have power over now is determining how severe the building catastrophes will be. If we can mobilize radical efforts in the next ~4 years we may avoid the worst case scenarios. But that doesn't mean we'll be hotly anticipating the next smart phone and enjoying next-day delivery in thirty years. There will still be mass extinctions, large swathes of the surface of Earth will be inhospitable to humans, we will live with constant wildfires and super storms... regardless of what we do now.

I'm not a gambling sort of person so I don't plan on getting lucky. It sure would be nice if some genius out there invents a technology that magically reverses everything. However that's not a likely outcome.

I think we need to look forward to surviving. It's not going to be pleasant but I do remain hopeful that it will be possible.

Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?

#50

Post by iso1337 » Wed, Jul 03, 2019, 12:23 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #43

iso1337 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that there needs to be an equivalent of a climate 9/11 event. Maybe Miami getting wiped off the map by a category 9 hurricane (and call me a pessimist but the loss of a city in a developing country to climate change just won't register in the minds of the developed world). We as a species are very emotionally driven and slow trends and statistics just aren't as compelling as a big event. I don't know how bad…

It is worth remembering that less than 2 years ago thousands of Americans were killed and 3 million plus Americans spent months without electricity due to a hurricane. It is impossible to link that single event to climate change since climate is about trends and not single events, but that event came and went and generally speaking the country barely seemed to care.

Are you referring to the one that hit Puerto Rico? Cynically I think that's because many people don't consider that truly part of America. (Note that's not my personal views, but just trying to make sense of why there was such a lackluster response).

My original comment was really trying to get at the human factors involved as to why we don't care. We just seem to be bad at responding to trends but better at responding to single events. Just like how the US generally don't care about the 40k+ USians killed every year in traffic accidents, but the US responded strongly to the singular event that was 9/11.

Edit: care about on an emotional, popular media level. Deaths per vehicle mile traveled have been going down over time in the US, due to increased safety regulations imposed on the manufacturers.