I am optimistic about the future because the costs of renewable energy (wind and solar) and energy storage (batteries) are plummeting. These trends are likely to continue.
Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
31–40 of 77 posts
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#32Unfortunately not at all. A lot of this comes from extensive travel and spending time in the third and second world. Many of the poorest billion simply do not realize that it is against their interest not to, for example, dump chemicals and trash in water they drink from and bathe in. Or just simply that littering is a problem. To be clear I'm not faulting them, like everyone else they are mostly good people and if t…
And the ones that realize it too well tend to get killed in the name of progress. The Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Juan Manuel Santos even joked in one of his videos that "the difference between terrorists and environmentalists is that, with terrorists, one can negotiate." This is the former president of Colombia, a country where hundreds of activists (including environmentalists) get murdered per year before the complicit inaction of their government and the smears of their corporate media.
I am from a third world country and I have seen the poorest risks their lives in defense of the environment in ways the more educated do not even come close to considering. The rest are being "educated" on a day to day basis on the wonders of consumerism.
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Many of the poorest billion simply do not realize that it is against their interest not to, for example, dump chemicals and trash in water they drink from and bathe in. Or just simply that littering is a problem. To be fair to the poorest billion, the richest billion also doesn't really get this either.
This is sadly true although I think many in the rich world know but are in denial or choose to be lazy. There are really people out there though who just have never been exposed to the idea that you shouldn't do this stuff.
I doubt it's 'denial', it's more a calculation :
if ($fakeDenial === $moreMoneyThanModifyingBehavior) {
$changingCourse = null;
}Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Many of the poorest billion simply do not realize that it is against their interest not to, for example, dump chemicals and trash in water they drink from and bathe in. Or just simply that littering is a problem. To be fair to the poorest billion, the richest billion also doesn't really get this either.
And on a per capita, probably pollutes a lot more (I have no data on this). We just can afford to keep it out of _our_ water.
I'm conflicted about this. As an American we are voracious consumers and highly ineffecient about it but I've been repeatedly shocked in trips to Taiwan and Vietnam about how the consumption there seemed frequently even more wasteful than what I was used to back home, especially in terms of plastic packaged in plastic packaged in plastic Russian doll scenarios that seemed totally egregious but really common.
On the other hand I think it's a little bit easier to notice when it's not your culture for some reason so maybe I'm biased.
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#35Yes, absolutely. Put enough money into it and scientists/startups will figure it out. I'd like to see someone prove that we can't reverse most of what we've done (besides extinction of different species which is obviously bad).
The scary thing isn't the current state of the climate. The scary thing is passing a point of no return where climate change becomes non-linear and self-feeding. According to many reports, we are not far off from that point. Still, we are in a world where a non-negligible portion of the population believes that climate change is fabricated, or at least overstated. Scientists won't be able to really do anything other…
Public opinion is not that important. All you need is government money given to research new technology that will make for viable competition. The economics will take care of the rest.
And regarding the public, the public has plenty of reasons to be skeptical. We've been given Iraq WMDs, Obama birth certificate hysteria (more people believed this than you think), now Russia/Trump hysteria. All of this ends up being hot air. So when you tell people they have 10 years to live if we don't do a 180 on our economy, what do you expect them to say?
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#36I believe we'll eventually get our act together and survive with some pretty serious damage to the environment. When people are sufficiently desperate, you'll see more change. You can get ahead of the eventualities and help by learning how to survive without the use of fossil fuels which is difficult but more or less achievable today. Use electric bikes, cars and motorcycles. Work remotely. Try to find an efficient h…
I think that there needs to be an equivalent of a climate 9/11 event. Maybe Miami getting wiped off the map by a category 9 hurricane (and call me a pessimist but the loss of a city in a developing country to climate change just won't register in the minds of the developed world). We as a species are very emotionally driven and slow trends and statistics just aren't as compelling as a big event. I don't know how bad…
I'm thinking we need NYC and Miami to be completely wiped off the map by rising waters before anyone takes action, when D.C. is the new coastline they might wake up and start to change things, I hope it's not too late by then.
Edit: Or they might bask that they (congress) now own beach-front property.
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#37I wonder how much we've improved trends already. I mean, I realize that we are in a worse situation now than has been previously projected, but with hindsight knowledge, I wonder how much worse off (in tenths or hundredths of degrees or whatever) we'd be if we hadn't globally taken the environment actions we've already taken. The amount of solar we have now has made a dent, hasn't it?
This[1] Wikipedia entry claims global solar electricity production is 12.9TWh per year.
Compared to 13,675TWh total annual electricity production from coal, oil, and gas combined.
So we're talking about a 0.09% dent.
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#38Unfortunately not at all. A lot of this comes from extensive travel and spending time in the third and second world. Many of the poorest billion simply do not realize that it is against their interest not to, for example, dump chemicals and trash in water they drink from and bathe in. Or just simply that littering is a problem. To be clear I'm not faulting them, like everyone else they are mostly good people and if t…
Whatever the poorest billion are doing wrong is likely far outstripped by a few big corporations. Or the US military alone.
Well said. And here's some reference https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/1/1671884...
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#39More warming seems inevitable, oceans are going to rise, and history weather patterns are going to change. Coastal cities will be flooded, existing farm land will get harder to maintain, and previously infertile land has the chance to become fertile.
However solar, grid power storage, and wind are increasing faster than anyone seemed to be think was possible just a few years ago. Coal plants and coal mines are increasingly price prohibitive to run. New plants are being cancelled and existing plants decommissioned.
UAE (the last place I'd expect solar) just turned on the largest solar farm on the planet! I walk around my city and I see huge solar arrays on parking lots, churches, universities, and even on top of commercial buildings.
Generally it seems like instead of the slow migration that green energy is causing a major disruption. Solar is now getting to the point (in many places) where it's cheaper than many consumers current power bill. 5 year cost to own is favoring electric cars over gas cars, even compared to relatively small cheap cars like the toyota corolla or honda civic.
Tesla is of course shipping more cars than ever and fighting to get the prices lower. Even at $40k to start with (not including federal, state, and power company incentives) isn't too far off the price of the average new car.
So changes are accelerating, Tony Seba on youtube has a pretty good talk on green power, electric cars, and the speed of major disruptive changes.
So terrible things will happen, but I'm growing increasingly optimistic that the worst will be avoided.
Re: Ask HN: Are You Hopeful About the Environment?
#40I'm terrified.
For example:
The ice cap melts are accelerating a lot faster than modelled. The mechanisms are not yet perfectly understood.
The major flows of sea water (e.g. Gulf Stream) are at risk of changing completely with the temperature changes, which means dramatic changes in climate for Europe (colder), USA (warmer) (for example) are possible. Who knows - and the answer is nobody really.
The acidification of the oceans as they absorb more and more CO2 is making it harder for phytoplankton to grow. Take away this basic building block of the ocean ecosystem and the ultimate outcome is dead sea, with no ability to generate oxygen, and toxic gases emitted. That will change our atmosphere to be deadly.
These and so many others are not just exponential trends, but have unknown knowns (e.g. methane released from Arctic) and unknown unknowns that will magnify the impact. As people involved in high growth companies and the internet we understand exponential growth - but the politicians and even scientists are reluctant to understand and embrace the consequences.
Meanwhile we are still increasing, not decreasing CO2e emissions. Emissions need to decrease sharply now, to zero, for us to have a chance, and even then it's hard.
There is no political will. We are too comfortable. And then it will be too late.
We should ask ourselves the question - what can we do that's more important than helping to reduce global emissions? And then do something. There are lots of ways to help, and none of us can do it all, but we all need to do something, and take leadership roles to make the changes.