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Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

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Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#21

Post by bilbo0s »

chillwaves wrote: post #17
bilbo0s wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. And even the people with college will necessarily compare less favorably with that older cohort over time. In a world where everyone has a college degree, well, some people with college degrees will have to be the ditch diggers so to speak. I don't know how you solve that problem? It's just math.

Use your educated populace to design robots to dig ditches. It's not "math" that humans have to engage in undesirable labor, under brutal conditions. We have thousands of years of developing tools that are contrary to that statement. It is a collective social decision to say that an hour of someone's time is worth less than building a robot. That's the only reason why cashiers still exist.

It's still math.

If you go that route, then the people who build and program the robots will necessarily be paid less. Today that is likely a top 10% job. (More likely a top 5% job if we're being honest.) In a world where everyone has a college degree and there are 30 times the number of people who can program those things because the tools have gotten just that easy...

well, you do the math.

At the extreme, you can't just pay 100% of the labor market more money because they have a college degree. It just doesn't work like that.

Put in more base terms, there is only room for 1% of the people, in the top 1%. You may be able to, through the magic of increased production, decrease the price of everything in your economy. So that the other 99% of people can afford access to everything to which people in the top 1% have access. But even that is difficult in the extreme. It'd just be easier, over time, than is paying everyone in your economy more over time.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#22

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

chillwaves wrote: post #17
bilbo0s wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. And even the people with college will necessarily compare less favorably with that older cohort over time. In a world where everyone has a college degree, well, some people with college degrees will have to be the ditch diggers so to speak. I don't know how you solve that problem? It's just math.

Use your educated populace to design robots to dig ditches. It's not "math" that humans have to engage in undesirable labor, under brutal conditions. We have thousands of years of developing tools that are contrary to that statement. It is a collective social decision to say that an hour of someone's time is worth less than building a robot. That's the only reason why cashiers still exist.

Sure, but it’s a collective social decision that’s generally seen as good for the average person. How popular do you think it would be if Walmart went on stage at the next shareholder meeting and said “yeah, automated terminals are working great, we aim to fire all our cashiers over the next few years”?

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#23

Post by cycrutchfield »

deogeo wrote: post #8
kazen44 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, how much of this effect is basically the rest of the world playing catch up in terms of economic production? China and the rest of Asia are magnitudes more competitive compared to 50 years ago. And prior to that US industry was unmatched thanks to the massive effects world war 2 had on the other, western industrialized nations.

> Also, how much of this effect is basically the rest of the world playing catch up in terms of economic production? If the rest of the world becoming more productive results in US workers being worse off, then something is severely wrong with US trade policy. For one, it contradicts the dogma that more trade is strictly beneficial.

>For one, it contradicts the dogma that more trade is strictly beneficial.

It is strictly beneficial, in aggregate. But in any situation, there are winners and there are losers. There are no decisions you can make where everybody wins. If you live in a first world country and your skill set is worse than somebody in the developing world, you’re going to have a bad time.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#24

Post by acover »

lilsoso wrote: post #6

The credibility of the article is undermined by hyperbolic statements such as, "For a lot of children, when they’re 8 years old, it’s too late. If your parents aren’t engaged in the education system, in 10 years you’ll be competing in the labor market against people whose parents sent them to violin lessons and summer programs in the Dominican Republic. There’s inequality of opportunity." It's too late for "a lot of…

For a lot of 8 year olds that is accurate. Imagine not being able to read at 8. If your parents don't intervene you will be handicapped for life. On the other hand if your parents tutor you then it becomes a non-event.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#25

Post by cycrutchfield »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #22
chillwaves wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Use your educated populace to design robots to dig ditches. It's not "math" that humans have to engage in undesirable labor, under brutal conditions. We have thousands of years of developing tools that are contrary to that statement. It is a collective social decision to say that an hour of someone's time is worth less than building a robot. That's the only reason why cashiers still exist.

Sure, but it’s a collective social decision that’s generally seen as good for the average person. How popular do you think it would be if Walmart went on stage at the next shareholder meeting and said “yeah, automated terminals are working great, we aim to fire all our cashiers over the next few years”?

That’s just progress. We don’t miss the days of travel agents or horse buggies either. Railing against progress is simply tilting at windmills.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#26

Post by lilsoso »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18
lilsoso wrote: post #6

The credibility of the article is undermined by hyperbolic statements such as, "For a lot of children, when they’re 8 years old, it’s too late. If your parents aren’t engaged in the education system, in 10 years you’ll be competing in the labor market against people whose parents sent them to violin lessons and summer programs in the Dominican Republic. There’s inequality of opportunity." It's too late for "a lot of…

I think that's an un-generous interpretation of the quote. Yes, I think there is good evidence that if you are in a poverty-stricken family and you don't get very early intervention, that by mid-elementary school it is too late for your average poor kid. The reason being that the rest of your environment of poverty is going to be pretty much pulling against you the rest of your childhood, so intervention while your h…

I largely agree with you. But the following line from the article is devastating, "For a lot of children, when they’re 8 years old, it’s too late."

And this mawkish line is published under the banner of Stanford, an arbiter of the truth. I expect better.

edit:

My comments seem to have sparked a nerve. I simply wanted to point out bad rhetoric that undermines the cause and weakens an institution of trust. The situation is bad, so there's no need to exaggerate or lie to deliver the point. And this isn't a partisan issue. A conservative like Thiel would deliver a similar message.

There is, however, a pernicious insinuation in that quote. The notion that if you haven't achieved x by y age you're done. That's a debilitating notion. And we have it in the tech community, if you can't code by z age give up. Or if you haven't achieved some startup success or some corporate title at an early age you're a failure.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#27

Post by pjc50 »

car12 wrote: post #7

I wonder how much effect immigration has had on the matter of inequality. I'm going off these assumptions: -> Lesser immigration would've led to a higher GDP/capita figure for US. -> More resources to subsidize college and lesser cut-throat competition for jobs. -> Employers would be forced to pay higher wages and people would be more easily to retrain for different jobs. -> Bonus points: We can help Africa and South…

Huge assumptions there. And some significant work has gone into investigating the first and found it's the other way round: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/9789264288737-8-en.p...

> We can help Africa and South american countries

It would be a significant improvement if the US stopped "helping" South America. Allende would like a word.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#28

Post by jayd16 »

bilbo0s wrote: post #21
chillwaves wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Use your educated populace to design robots to dig ditches. It's not "math" that humans have to engage in undesirable labor, under brutal conditions. We have thousands of years of developing tools that are contrary to that statement. It is a collective social decision to say that an hour of someone's time is worth less than building a robot. That's the only reason why cashiers still exist.

It's still math. If you go that route, then the people who build and program the robots will necessarily be paid less. Today that is likely a top 10% job. (More likely a top 5% job if we're being honest.) In a world where everyone has a college degree and there are 30 times the number of people who can program those things because the tools have gotten just that easy... well, you do the math. At the extreme, you can'…

This is a real misunderstanding of economics. If you increase productivity through technology, it's possible for everyone to earn more real dollars (as a product of cost of living).

It's not a zero sum game. Imagine it this way. Everyone today is making more than hunt from a cave money. Why is that? Because a single human can produce more than the bare minimum for survival.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#29

Post by baybal2 »

Very simple — Dollar is a global reserve currency, and T-bills are of equal prominence in the debt market.

Foreign holding of US debt increased by few times since year 2000.

The more US government borrows, the more TBills are there for purchase for foreign institutional buyers at attractive prices.

Those are of course the real movers of the current account deficit: rates and tbill market

US exports and labour will never be competitive until US can radically rethinks its view on government spendings and debt policy.

Re: Rising US Inequality: How We Got Here, Where We're Going

#30

Post by deogeo »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #23
deogeo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also, how much of this effect is basically the rest of the world playing catch up in terms of economic production? If the rest of the world becoming more productive results in US workers being worse off, then something is severely wrong with US trade policy. For one, it contradicts the dogma that more trade is strictly beneficial.

>For one, it contradicts the dogma that more trade is strictly beneficial. It is strictly beneficial, in aggregate. But in any situation, there are winners and there are losers. There are no decisions you can make where everybody wins. If you live in a first world country and your skill set is worse than somebody in the developing world, you’re going to have a bad time.

> But in any situation, there are winners and there are losers.

The usually trotted-out theory of comparative advantage claims there are only winners.

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