31–40 of 58 posts
Right now there are 5 comments on this post, and all 5 focus on the issue of how to invest in AI. That suggests something about how Hacker News has changed over the years. There is a larger focus on “what stock can I buy” and somewhat less focus on working with the actual tech.
„This time it’s different“ sentiment is necessary ingredient of any bubble.
Sometimes it really is different. And sometimes it isn't.
It was right about the economic potential of the www. 20 years later and it is as big a deal as 1999 pundits predicted. It was right that the big winners would be very big, very fast. Google, FB Alibaba, amazon... Bigger than any tech company in 99. It was right about winning early and establishing dominant position... letting network effects and the scaling power of software and the web go to work.
Unfortunately for binary outcomes.. getting 4/5 things right is still a wipeout.
The bubble was slightly off about timing. More big winners were founded/determined in the 5 years after the bubble than during it. It slightly overestimated early mover advantage.. closely related to the timing mistake.
If that bubble is the model for this one... interesting times ahead.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I personally would put my money on Nvidia when it comes to most value in AI projects, but I don't have inside knowledge with either company.
Nvidia makes shovels. They stand to make a lot of money no matter what AI works out (possibly more than anyone else), all that without having to do any AI themselves.
I think this bubble's a weird one in that it's a very different size depending on your point of view. Everything is getting rebranded as AI. Taking averages, grouped by something? That's AI now. Using algorithms to do different things for different people? That's AI now. At least it will be in your press coverage. One thing is AI to the press and public, another thing is AI to investors, yet another thing for nontech…
> Taking averages, grouped by something? That's AI now.
I think that is right. The algorithm that does the grouped averages is machine learning, and if you put error bars around it, it is stats.
To address your concern: I wouldn't worry about the relevance of applying math and logic to the world. It has always been growing.
> Not all bubbles have negative consequences for the economy Unless we are using a different definition of "bubble" than it would seem (to me) most people intend when they use that word, this is a factually incorrect statement. If widespread misallocation of investment capital does not "hurt" the economy, then what does? If capital is invested with a positive outcome for the wrong reasons, then that certainly would n…
Some economists argued the dot com bubble was a net positive for the economy. While tanking dot coms lost money for their investors the positive externalities like funding broadband networks outweighed that. Along the lines that Webvan may have tanked but we ended up with Google and Wikipedia. I imagine likewise that most of the present AI startups will tank but we'll end up with useful AI of serious value.
I am no economist, but virtually any economist I have read would respond to that statement with:
Compared to what?
Misallocation of limited human resources. Good people go from doing long term fundamental research into developing applications in startups.
Overinvestment and misallocation of capital resources during the bubble can lead to long period of underinvestment once the bubble bursts.
I'm a bit skeptical there is a bubble as defined in the article as "when the market value of assets decouple from their intrinsic value and expectations of rising valuations generate investor demand." As a speculator where are these soaring AI stocks for me to punt on? By the way you can read the article with a trial account from O'Rilley but there's not much too it beyond what's in the summary https://learning.oreil…
Isn't the lack of stocks to punt on a dysfunction of the investment system? The VC market is doing the speculation, and you are locked out - not because they don't want your money, but because they don't want you to have a chance of getting theirs!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If I wanted to get started learning about machine learning/AI, where is the best place to do that? I'm a functional programmer who's learned mostly everything about software engineering on the job, and I feel like I don't have the background I need to get started on it; I struggle immensely with math, but have had no problem with my career in software yet thus. I am going to be traveling for a machine learning conven…
Machine learning is literally just math. You could learn some plug and play without understanding the math, but I'm not sure you would be able to solve any real problems.