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Nobel Prize Winner William Nordhaus vs. the IPCC on Climate Change

econlib.org

21–27 of 27 posts

Re: Nobel Prize Winner William Nordhaus vs. the IPCC on Climate Change

#21
William Nordhaus and his cost estimates are themselves controversial and by no means some kind of standard in the field of climate mitigation economics. For people who paid attention, this was brought up when he won his prize. [1]

I dare say the IPCC knows better than both Econlib and Nordhaus. There isn't much of an analysis here. They ignore the most obvious huge cost: the risk of reaching the tipping-point after which global warming would be unstoppable. They ignore the positive externalities of climate action, which are plenty in themselves. They ignore the fact that it is not possible to not act now and then suddenly put on the brakes on warming when we reach whatever target they deem appropriate.

1. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/06/the-nobel-prize-for-cli...

Re: Nobel Prize Winner William Nordhaus vs. the IPCC on Climate Change

#22
“According to its last update, published in early 2017, the Obama EPA reported that the SCC in 2030, using the standard 3% discount rate, would be $50 per ton.”

Does anybody know the context in which 3% is considered the “standard” discount rate? The choice of a specific discount rate reflects/implies a philosophical stance about the value of stuff in the future. I’m interested in how 3% is the value we’ve converged on.

Re: Nobel Prize Winner William Nordhaus vs. the IPCC on Climate Change

#23

William Nordhaus and his cost estimates are themselves controversial and by no means some kind of standard in the field of climate mitigation economics. For people who paid attention, this was brought up when he won his prize. [1] I dare say the IPCC knows better than both Econlib and Nordhaus. There isn't much of an analysis here. They ignore the most obvious huge cost: the risk of reaching the tipping-point after w…

The strange thing is that if there is such positive externalities for climate policies why don't rich countries that can afford to pay more for energy be more aggresive in reducing emissions? Even Germany, for instance, isn't spending as much as it could to reduce emissions. If reducing emissions are so important why aren't German business forced to purchase electricity at the market rate(with renewable subsidies builtin) the same way consumers are?

Complaining about growth in rich countries basically misses the mark. It isn't rich countries that are driving greenhouse emissions but developing countries that can't afford renewable energy wihtout cutting investment and thus growth. Less growth means that people in the present will be worse off as well and they have less resources to ameliorate the social consequences of a stagnant economy.

Of course, rich countries that cut growth will be less rich. That means all else being equal workers will be paid less(because they live in a less wealthy economy) and the lack of growth will cause similar (if more manageable) social impacts as in developing economies. Saying that you could still be 'happy' living in such a country misses the point entirely. You would never rationally believe such an outcome of being economically poorer shouldn't be avoided if at all possible.

Re: Nobel Prize Winner William Nordhaus vs. the IPCC on Climate Change

#24
If money matters more than lives (even if it's your own or a lot of people you might care enough), then he might be right.

If it doesn't, then he is wrong. Never cross a river that in average is 4 feet deep, nor suppose that an increase of the global yearly average of temperature of 2 degrees excludes the possibility of 55-60 ºC on very populated cities on some particular day in a near future. That probably will kill a lot of people, and cause a lot of health troubles to a lot more. And to make it worse, it won't be an isolated event, it will keep happening and getting worse, and not affecting just people.

If you see what he proposes as "it will be less expensive to kill a lot of people", he might be technically right. And very wrong.

Re: Nobel Prize Winner William Nordhaus vs. the IPCC on Climate Change

#26
post #25

Psychopaths like William Nordhaus will be the reason we go extinct.

Nordhaus is one of the leading advocates for a carbon tax and the one who proposed the climate club, a sensible plan to implement it without requiring global cooperation.

He may be one of the most likely candidates for preventing us from going extinct.

The author who is abusing Nordhaus' numbers is the psychopath.

Re: Nobel Prize Winner William Nordhaus vs. the IPCC on Climate Change

#27
post #25

Psychopaths like William Nordhaus will be the reason we go extinct.

Posting like this will get you banned here. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and post thoughtfully and substantively, or not at all.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20305967 and marked it off-topic.

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