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Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

news.gallup.com

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Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#91

Post by abathur »

drawnwren wrote: post #52
abathur wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of sources of sloppiness here, though. The question is sloppy relative to the definitions. They asked "Just your best guess, what percent of Americans today would you say are gay or lesbian?", but the measuring stick is what portion of people identify as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender. I would be a little surprised if people use exactly the same framework to decide if someone else is gay as th…

> it seems at least plausible from the data that much of the difference in age groups (and, for that matter, partisan affiliation) could disappear if controlled for different identification rates among people's actual peer groups This assumes that homosexuality is evenly distributed across age groups, something that is directly contradicted by the data. Your bias makes you think that this is caused by unacceptability…

Sigh. I probably didn't phrase something clearly enough. Or perhaps we're not occupying the same universe. Since I was feeling free to impute sloppiness to Gallup last night, I'll do my best to take your imputation of bias in stride.

> This assumes that homosexuality is evenly distributed across age groups, something that is directly contradicted by the data. Your bias makes you think that this is caused by unacceptability of identification, but you would need to show that the change in acceptability has only affected younger generations.

Exactly the opposite. It is possible that a significant fraction of the age correlation the poll observed might disappear if they controlled for different identification rates at different ages. They don't try to use the data to investigate the possibility that the rates young people guess and the rates old people guess are actually pretty similar (even if over-estimated!) relative to identification rates in their peer group. It directly assumes the rate (at least of identification) can differ.

> This metaphor seems directly contradicted by... The change in ever cheating on a test over the last 70 years does not seem pretty profound to me.

The point of the metaphor isn't a time-correlated rate change. It's that the narrative of the release (Americans don't know Americans) is trying to compare quantities that might be expected to differ (because they measure different things) and then making news out of the fact that they aren't the same.

> It's clear that your personal bias is that there is an iceberg of non-identifying homosexuals who still feel oppressed. Even in SF, the number barely reaches 15% [1]

I have no strong opinion on or suspicion about what portion of the population does or doesn't identify as gay. If anything, I think the entire project of ontologizing our sexuality is fraught.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#92

Post by throwaway5752 »

nvrspyx wrote: post #68
ambicapter wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They gained marriage equality only 4 years ago. Gay marriage was legalized in Massachusetts in 2004.

How obtuse. It’s clear they were talking about at the federal level, nationwide (i.e. 06/26/2015)

It's a fair point and I think it was a good faith observation, made possible because I was ambiguous. I did the same thing using the date of the first sodomy law rollback (state of Illinois, 1960s) vs national (Lawrence v Texas, 2003). I don't think they deserved any downvotes.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#93

Post by mcphage »

tastygreenapple wrote: post #26
tantalor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LGBTQ in the American mind share far outsizes their population What does that even mean? Population is one thing, but can mindshare be measured? You're comparing apples and oranges.

Well, what other groups make up 5% of the population and get corporate logos changed in recognition of that group? About 5% of Americans watched the NBA finals, did brands go out of their way to make NBA fans feel included? Do news shows bring on their NBA correspondent to talk about NBA issues?

> About 5% of Americans watched the NBA finals, did brands go out of their way to make NBA fans feel included?

Yes? The fact that you're even asking this question is mind-boggling.

> Do news shows bring on their NBA correspondent to talk about NBA issues?

There's this little thing on the news program every single day called "The sports segment", where they talk about sports. There are entire channels devoted to sports.

Are you not in the US? Do you not consume any US media? This entire line of comparison makes no sense whatsoever.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#94

Post by fuzz4lyfe »

meruru wrote: post #28
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe a minor point, but I think sexual fluidity remains under-addressed by these polls. Some people are, for all intents and purposes, identifying as LGBT during, say, their college years, but then go on to settle down with an opposite-sex spouse. If the person once identified as LGBT, but doesn't today, is it based on what they "actively" are? Or if you ever once identified as LGBT, for purposes of polling, you rem…

Not a minor point at all. I think sexual fluidity is one of the most relevant aspects of sexuality and I would love to see it measured. Labels like "Gay" and "Bi" are way too simplistic.

The medical terminology is better, its often "Men who have sex with men" or something similar that removes the need to understand the subjects mental state and simply focus on the important clinical data.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#95

Post by colemickens »

0815test wrote: post #85
BorRagnarok wrote: post #76

That must be because of the over promotion of LGBT then. Also look at this: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/06/24/lgbtq-a... "Young people are growing less tolerant of LGBTQ individuals, ... , a survey released Monday shows." Because the promotion and attention seeking is everywhere, people think it's everywhere. That's why we're starting to see it backfiring now. And, lots of parents just don't want t…

Yes, it's interesting that the overestimate seems to be occurring on both sides. If more people realized just how small the whole LGBTQQetc. minority is, attitudes around these issues would be a lot more relaxed.

How does the percentage of LGBT folks change whether I should have equal rights? How does the percentage of LGBT folks change whether I could be fired because my boss hates gay people?

"more relaxed"? What does that even mean? What is uptight exactly?

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#96

Post by colemickens »

codingslave wrote: post #6

If you look at pride month and the level of marketing and news associated with it, one would estimate that the gay population is huge. Nearly every major corporation on linkedin has a rainbow logo, my uber the other day showed their ride path as a rainbow. The level of influence that LGBTQ currently has in the American mind share far outsizes their population, even now I am worried my account will be banned for menti…

How does a company pandering to a consumer group have anything to do with the civil rights struggle of that group?

How am I, as a gay man, responsible for the fact that companies see Pride as a valuable advertising angle? I don't know a single LGBT person that is happy about it, other than it means that society doesn't ACTIVELY, VIOLENTLY HATE US ANYMORE.

>I have actually had many people from different walks of life mention this in the last month, people are taking note.

Ah yeah, Uber made the route a rainbow color, so fuck the people who would like to have basic civil protections from being fired for who they love. I love the absolutely non-existent logic of anti-gay idiots.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#97

Post by 0815test »

colemickens wrote: post #95
0815test wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it's interesting that the overestimate seems to be occurring on both sides. If more people realized just how small the whole LGBTQQetc. minority is, attitudes around these issues would be a lot more relaxed.

How does the percentage of LGBT folks change whether I should have equal rights? How does the percentage of LGBT folks change whether I could be fired because my boss hates gay people? "more relaxed"? What does that even mean? What is uptight exactly?

> How does the percentage of LGBT folks change whether I should have equal rights?

I'm not making this argument at all, but apparently some people are; they seem to be saying that we should be extremely careful not to underestimate LGBT percentages, or they might be mistakenly regarded as "too small" of a minority to have legitimate "rights".

Which strikes me as deeply weird, given that this whole range of notions of "rights", "agency" and so on and so forth are meant to apply to the individual first and foremost; who is, by definition, the smallest and most vulnerable - and, all too often, the most heavily oppressed minority of them all!

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#98

Post by stankypickle »

Grue3 wrote: post #78

Alternative headline: Gallup greatly underestimates US Gay Population.

Doubtful:

"Thus, Gallup's methodology is not the only way to estimate the percentage of the population that is gay or lesbian. Still, all available estimates of the actual gay and lesbian population in the U.S. are far lower than what the public estimates, and no measurement procedure has produced any figures suggesting that more than one out of five Americans are gay or lesbian."

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#99

Post by stankypickle »

reaperducer wrote: post #17

People also overestimate the amount of crime in America, the divorce rate, and how much money YouTube "celebrities" make. Perception is driven by exposure. Both are driven by media.

The old adage: "TV will rot your brain" seems more true the older I get. Probably needs to be updated to include spending too much time on the internet.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#100

Post by meruru »

fuzz4lyfe wrote: post #94
meruru wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a minor point at all. I think sexual fluidity is one of the most relevant aspects of sexuality and I would love to see it measured. Labels like "Gay" and "Bi" are way too simplistic.

The medical terminology is better, its often "Men who have sex with men" or something similar that removes the need to understand the subjects mental state and simply focus on the important clinical data.

That's better, but doesn't separate men who have sex with manly men from those who only have sex with traps. It also excludes those who don't have sex at all for one reason or another.
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