Live data from Hacker News

Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

news.gallup.com

31–40 of 109 posts

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#31

If you look at pride month and the level of marketing and news associated with it, one would estimate that the gay population is huge. Nearly every major corporation on linkedin has a rainbow logo, my uber the other day showed their ride path as a rainbow. The level of influence that LGBTQ currently has in the American mind share far outsizes their population, even now I am worried my account will be banned for menti…

You think, "The level of influence that LGBTQ currently has in the American mind share far outsizes their population".

They gained marriage equality only 4 years ago. They are underrepresented in Congress (10/535, about 42% of expected representation based on the 4.5% number cited in the article). Same sex relationships have only been decriminalized for less than 50 years.

By any standards they are a historically oppressed minority in the US. I wouldn't worry that your, "account will be banned for mentioning this" but I do think your concerns are pretty ridiculous in light of a few rainbow flags and rainbow themed logos.

edit: I left out a bunch of stuff (DOMA, DADT) intentionally but I made an egregious mistake with, "decriminalized for less than 50 years". I forgot that gay sex was still illegal in 14 states until just 2003 (Lawrence v. Texas).

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LGBTQ in the American mind share far outsizes their population What does that even mean? Population is one thing, but can mindshare be measured? You're comparing apples and oranges.

Well, what other groups make up 5% of the population and get corporate logos changed in recognition of that group? About 5% of Americans watched the NBA finals, did brands go out of their way to make NBA fans feel included? Do news shows bring on their NBA correspondent to talk about NBA issues?

Yes? Advertisers always market to sports fans.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#34
post #4

Is it possible that what you're seeing in this data is less about inaccuracy and more about how comfortably out people are? It says the estimates skew greater for younger people and women responding. Well are younger people and women more likely to know which of their friends are LGBT, because of a host of societal reasons that tend to influence men or older folks to wall off their feelings and communicate less about…

4.5% self-report as LGBT. That's an important distinction to make, and I too would be surprised if it's accurate.

It's risen by 1 percentage point since 2012 when they started tracking this, and for millennials, the number is around 8.2%. They don't seem to have data for zoomers yet. [1] This would suggest (imo) that 4.5% is in fact a significant underestimate, but I don't know necessarily that it's as far off as 20%

[1]: https://news.gallup.com/poll/234863/estimate-lgbt-population...

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#35

These people were asked to choose between 6 options. Every number in every option was higher than the true value. Is it any wonder people overestimate when primed this way? I wonder how many other poll results people rely on are this obviously biased. Edit: I now believe this is incorrect, see below.

Eh, it's clear priming didn't have too much of an effect here. The single most selected answer in every year was >25%. Respondents thought the number was too low to begin with.

[deleted]

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#36

If you look at pride month and the level of marketing and news associated with it, one would estimate that the gay population is huge. Nearly every major corporation on linkedin has a rainbow logo, my uber the other day showed their ride path as a rainbow. The level of influence that LGBTQ currently has in the American mind share far outsizes their population, even now I am worried my account will be banned for menti…

You think, "The level of influence that LGBTQ currently has in the American mind share far outsizes their population". They gained marriage equality only 4 years ago. They are underrepresented in Congress (10/535, about 42% of expected representation based on the 4.5% number cited in the article). Same sex relationships have only been decriminalized for less than 50 years. By any standards they are a historically opp…

> They gained marriage equality only 4 years ago.

Gay marriage was legalized in Massachusetts in 2004.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think, "The level of influence that LGBTQ currently has in the American mind share far outsizes their population". They gained marriage equality only 4 years ago. They are underrepresented in Congress (10/535, about 42% of expected representation based on the 4.5% number cited in the article). Same sex relationships have only been decriminalized for less than 50 years. By any standards they are a historically opp…

> They gained marriage equality only 4 years ago. Gay marriage was legalized in Massachusetts in 2004.

Yes, I remember. I am counting from Obergefell v. Hodges.

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#38

These people were asked to choose between 6 options. Every number in every option was higher than the true value. Is it any wonder people overestimate when primed this way? I wonder how many other poll results people rely on are this obviously biased. Edit: I now believe this is incorrect, see below.

It appears that "Less than 5%" was an option. Where are the six you see?

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#39

One in ten. That's it.

I'm now kind of curious if Hacker News has a policy on usernames (with respect to the standards applied to comments).

In somewhat similar cases, if the mods see it or if someone sends an email to the mods, the account got banned. hn@ycombinator.com

Re: Americans Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

#40

The media skews everything. Almost every TV show has a homosexual character, a black computer programmer, and an ass-kicking female martial arts expert. Hollywood has to parade its ideals, after all. And to some extent, it's showing you how urban sophisticates view their own world, amplifying the same skew. I remember some really old poll from a NYC high school (decades ago) in which the students estimated the Jewish…

I would actually be interested in seeing a crude analysis of this, because I don't know if there is a skew or if we just tend to notice the things that break our expectations.

There are a few recent shows where a gay character is a part of the core ensemble, but I'm not sure gay characters are overall more than 1 out of every 30.

Post reply on HN