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The author seems confused about what artificial general intelligence is. People have not meaningfully moved towards AGI - it's still a distant pipe dream. The closest we've gotten is probably a Dota bot that's pretty good as long as you give the bot a huge advantage. Which is an incredible piece of technology, but about as close to AGI as an ant is to a human.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
So at what point in a life of a human does general intelligence, or common sense, develop? Watching a baby do things feels like watching a robot trying to perform a task for the very first time. It seems like pattern matching overall with a very complex and fine grained sensory input system. Also some things are definitely preprogrammed and passed on from one generation to the next. There are many examples regarding…
Fair question. I can't claim a definite answer as to when this general/commonsensical ability develops, but I think to some degree we are born with it/preprogrammed as you point out. Certainly by toddler phase most humans have figured out visual pattern recognition better than the world's most advanced machine learning algorithms. My own thinking on this has been very much influenced by an early AI researcher-turned-…
We humans are really fascinating machines, continuously fed with a huge stream of data which we learn to filter and analyze. It takes time to accumulate the data and refine our pattern matching until we seem to be intelligent. It's hard to draw a line when this happens.
Maybe everything happens so fast and seamlessly that we consider it to be something magic and simply call it intelligence? Or maybe there really is something in there, reading in-between the lines, a soul?
We all know that each of us is looking outside from somewhere within a brain and you are able to influence your actions. But, is it some kind of feedback loop which can be reproduced mechanically or something supernatural?
As long as we don't know this, every attempt to recreate general intelligence may be futile.
This happened right before the first AI Winter in the late 80s: AI (in the form of expert systems) solved a number of hard problems and was hyped as being able to solve every problem. Reality set in when we figured out: 1. It didn't scale and 2. Getting 80% of the problem solved was easy, but getting that last 20% was very, very hard. Maybe several orders of magnitude harder than the first 80%. Nowadays we don't seem…
>> We're not going to have AGI any time soon. In your mind, how many inventions are we from GAI? 1? 1000? Also, given we have our very brightest working in the problem space (MS, Google, FB, OpenAI ...) how long would each remaining invention take? It seems plausible to me that we are only one invention from GAI, one novel combination of two or more existing solutions and that this may come from anyone and at any tim…
The author seems confused about what artificial general intelligence is. People have not meaningfully moved towards AGI - it's still a distant pipe dream. The closest we've gotten is probably a Dota bot that's pretty good as long as you give the bot a huge advantage. Which is an incredible piece of technology, but about as close to AGI as an ant is to a human.
The DotA bot is a very specific subproblem. Look at the open worm project for progress towards AGI
This happened right before the first AI Winter in the late 80s: AI (in the form of expert systems) solved a number of hard problems and was hyped as being able to solve every problem. Reality set in when we figured out: 1. It didn't scale and 2. Getting 80% of the problem solved was easy, but getting that last 20% was very, very hard. Maybe several orders of magnitude harder than the first 80%. Nowadays we don't seem…
>> We're not going to have AGI any time soon. In your mind, how many inventions are we from GAI? 1? 1000? Also, given we have our very brightest working in the problem space (MS, Google, FB, OpenAI ...) how long would each remaining invention take? It seems plausible to me that we are only one invention from GAI, one novel combination of two or more existing solutions and that this may come from anyone and at any tim…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Some perceptual tasks work better than a human, in fact. [...] that's not something you can say about the last AI winter Eh. I'd say that's somewhat apples to oranges. A) There were some useful and successful expert systems. B) Things seemed to be going swimmingly, until they hit a fundamental wall. C) We're working with a few orders of magnitude greater compute than they had access to.
Sure, but we did figure out how to make things more robust and generalizable, at least for perceptual tasks so far. Knowledge representation and probabilistic reasoning are still non-existent, though. Moreover, nobody is even working on any of that, for fear of being compared to Doug Lenat.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
So at what point in a life of a human does general intelligence, or common sense, develop? Watching a baby do things feels like watching a robot trying to perform a task for the very first time. It seems like pattern matching overall with a very complex and fine grained sensory input system. Also some things are definitely preprogrammed and passed on from one generation to the next. There are many examples regarding…
> Could be the reason why humans are so bad at adressing some problems like climate change, plastic pollution or poverty. I think that basically comes down to greed and ignorance. > There is no clear pattern we can match [...] leading us to a solution. Except, as best I know, both the problem and solution were recognised in the 80s but it wasn't in the companies' interests to torpedo their profits at the time. e.g. h…
Societal problems are a different beast. There are so many feedback loops, strategies and socioeconomic forces, that it's hard to find a clear cut solution even if you know the problem.
Stupid example: If you play Sim City, are you able to handle overpopulation, collapse of transportation and disasters? After a few games you definitely get better, recognize the patterns and handle accordingly.
So why doesn't it work in real life, climate change for example? Maybe the data is just too overwhelming, contradictory or incomplete? Maybe we just don't know any patterns which could help us? Or maybe we humans are simply not intelligent?
I've been collecting examples of where the ads that I see are based on extremely simple algorithms of the type that could have easily been supported 30 years ago, and yet I keep reading articles that suggest that the advertising industry is deploying sophisticated tools to target ads to me. I wrote about this recently: ------------------------- Despite much talk about Machine Learning and AI improving advertising res…
To keep the brand in your head so you post about it on Hackernews.
The author seems confused about what artificial general intelligence is. People have not meaningfully moved towards AGI - it's still a distant pipe dream. The closest we've gotten is probably a Dota bot that's pretty good as long as you give the bot a huge advantage. Which is an incredible piece of technology, but about as close to AGI as an ant is to a human.
"Remarkable things are happening in the field of artificial (general) intelligence. Deep learning algorithms have proven to be better than humans at spotting lung cancer."
This is very emphatically narrow AI.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> We're not going to have AGI any time soon. In your mind, how many inventions are we from GAI? 1? 1000? Also, given we have our very brightest working in the problem space (MS, Google, FB, OpenAI ...) how long would each remaining invention take? It seems plausible to me that we are only one invention from GAI, one novel combination of two or more existing solutions and that this may come from anyone and at any tim…
Applying this method of thinking, is there anything that we aren't one invention away from?
If you talk optimistically about AI (or big data for that matter) you quickly get downvoted these days. I'm curious as to why that is. I thought this was 'marica. Isn't this 'marica?
Edit: my apologies, that was condescending. I should have finished of with a wink of an eye.