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Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

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Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#91
post #19
post #6

I went to a recruiting talk by Two Sigma a while back where they discussed the same thing as an example of "look at this cool stuff we get to work on". They had slides with satellite images of some parking lot and showed how they could segment cars, deal with car-like things on roofs, map regions of parking lots to the right stores, handle different conditions like snow, etc. From a technical perspective it's actuall…

How do they deal with underground parking in urban areas especially?

They don't, just as they don't get a sense of the average purchase amount per trip. If above-ground parking lots get 20% more traffic, you can expect roughly 20% higher retail sales with some error bars based on the historical correlation.

The game here is essentially to get noisy signals about companies earlier than the official ones provided by the company. Take satellite pictures of parking lots, do phone surveys of consumers, count trucks leaving supplier companies, whatever. If it's a good predictor, you know upcoming price moves early, and can likely make significant profits off of it.

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#92

I almost worked for a satellite imaging company that does this stuff. It kind of bothered me that rather than providing farmers or the government with this extremely rich agricultural data, they were just contracted out to specific hedge funds that would use the data to give them an edge in trading. I feel like that's not the best use of that kind of data to society

If the farmers or governments were willing to pay the same as hedge funds I'm sure they would sell it to them too.

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#94

There's a whole marketplace where companies with so-called "Alternative-data" sell their datasets to quant traders. Satellite imagery of farms, passenger traffic through airports, all sorts of random, seemingly disparate data.

Is there a service or company that lists this data? I'm curious about what types of data are available.

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#95
Not to duplicate other opinions, but I'll add my similar one..

This is GOOD for the market(the practice, not the article). Price manipulation is a real thing, and fact-based research such as this means prices are more likely to reflect reality. This type of analysis is what we need more of! It's not opinion-based drivel from a talk show or blog, it's empirical data, analyzed impartially.

edit: typo

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#96
post #12

This article is very wrong to confuse "material non-public information" with hard to acquire information like counting cars in satellite photos. Remember the Matt Levine test: insider trading is about theft, not fairness. When a company insider uses private company information to trade (or colludes with an outside party to do so) they are stealing material non-public information from the company for their own benefit…

I'm more than a little surprised that Haas would publish an article that seems to indicate a complete lack of understanding of the purpose of the markets. Better data yields more efficient markets which is what we actually want. “Technology was supposed to level the playing field, but what I see is the fence separating sophisticated and unsophisticated investors growing higher,” says Patatoukas As if that's a bad thi…

I think the author's dilemma is the data is proprietary and won't be open or released unless it benefits the funds position. Fund managers will act on their information to profit before the market reacts or release the data after shoring their position and portfolio. If the data was open, analysis checked, and the information confirmed accurate then it probably would lead to a more efficient or at least accurate market valuation. But if it sits in a safe until no longer useful or released by someone else then we won't know.

I wonder if the author is thinking of groups that suspected the 2008 crash but either didn't raise the alarm and made bets on the outcome or weren't heard in the commotion. Any proprietary information they might have had could have alerted the public or something but there's always noise or incorrect predictions about the market and hindsight is 20/20. If their worldview is that private groups controlling information for private gain is bad, well that's already going on so this is just an extension of that.

I'm sure most funds have groups looking into data collection on top of modeling market results based on various inputs the data suggests. I'm sure most funds have some amount of proprietary data or algorithms to run against it, even if the info overlaps or they sourced from the same information like publicly available government released satellite photos. I'm sure that the market (mostly computer programatically trading) reacts fairly quickly to big players making less than subtle moves. There may be some method to deciding how far to go with certain information to not tip your hand or reveal information by inference. It's how the whole thing works already, and dropping into a mutual fund seems the best way to take advantage with minimal risk.

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#97
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When a company insider uses private company information to trade (or colludes with an outside party to do so) they are stealing material non-public information from the company for their own benefit. I must be dumb, but I don't understand this statement... How is that a "theft"? You knowing that I eat 2 eggs in the morning when I don't want people to know is not you "stealing" information from me.

You're stealing value by profiting on information which you had some duty to protect. For example, a company executive who knows that one of the company's products is about to be recalled generally owes a duty of loyalty to the company not to profit off of that knowledge to the disadvantage of the company.

From whom is it stealing value from? Random other potential investors on the stock market? Since the parent comment is specifically mentioning semantics, this is the distinction "theft" vs "fairness" that I don't really understand.

From an outsider perspective like me (I don't own stocks except through my 401k), Wall Street seems like a game of information asymmetry anyway where the only winners have an information edge at some moment in time. Now the question is about how "fairly" was the information obtained which seems pretty blurry to define to me.

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#98
post #65
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They shouldn’t. Pick a Vanfuard fund, put your money in it, and check back in a couple decades.

That's what I've done, but I still idly (this is not really in the top 100 things I'm concerned about right now) wonder where this ends up if things sort themselves out so much.

If this discussion is still narrowly tailored to the securities market, since this discussion was also about "insider trading", which is a unique prohibition to the securities market and not any other capital market then:

Retail has no business in the securities market. thats where it ends up. stop playing. retail investors flocking to the stock market is a 40 year old meme that is built upon non-objective thought and gullibility. It is built on laziness. Retail doesn't meme commodities because there is almost no lazy investing approach to it. But the reality is that there are other capital markets. Retail isn't helping the stock market, they aren't helping the companies they like by buying stocks they "recognize", they are MAYBE lowering borrowing costs for the company, its executives and employees, but retail's trading has nothing to do with anything.

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When a company insider uses private company information to trade (or colludes with an outside party to do so) they are stealing material non-public information from the company for their own benefit. I must be dumb, but I don't understand this statement... How is that a "theft"? You knowing that I eat 2 eggs in the morning when I don't want people to know is not you "stealing" information from me.

Some information has material amounts of actual dollar value. Whoever knows that your employer has an acquisition in the works that will be announced tomorrow has an extraordinarily easy way to monetize that. This information rightfully belongs to your employer, who is keeping it under wraps for financially important business reasons. Sharing it or acting on it means enriching yourself at the expense of those busines…

I know that. I'm asking specifically about the semantics of "theft" vs "fairness" here. I don't think the word "theft" makes much sense in this context.

Re: Hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street

#100

There's a whole marketplace where companies with so-called "Alternative-data" sell their datasets to quant traders. Satellite imagery of farms, passenger traffic through airports, all sorts of random, seemingly disparate data.

Another useful piece satellite imagery (other than farms and parking lots already mentioned) is watching shipping lanes in the ocean for traffic.
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