Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted • Hacker News Board

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#221

Post by radicalbyte » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 9:16 AM UTC

AstralStorm wrote: post #201

Fricken wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism is for solving problems of scarcity, and for that it worked quite well. It's quite useless for dealing with problems of abundance. All our biggest problems today are problems of abundance.

More importantly, it rewards externalizing costs. Such as to climate, future and others.

Absolutely! It optimizes around the rules we place on it. That's why this idea of 'free' capitalism that is popular in some circles is terrible. We tried it and it worked worse than dictatorial communism.

What we need to do is to update the rules of Capitalism to internalize the externalities. Make carbon expensive. Make environmental destruction expensive. Make exploiting labor expensive.

Do that and you'll see extremely rapid changes for the good. Only it will never happen because the people and countries currently profiting from coal / oil will fight it with the enormous $$ they have (and they are; people like the Koch brothers are always babbling on about how the government is run by a shadow 'deep state' - that's clearly true, and they're clearly being greased by oil money).

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#222

Post by majewsky » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 11:09 AM UTC

pier25 wrote: post #190

Everyone here is focused on reducing emissions and such but quite frankly this is only a small part of the problem. Let's assume today, right now, humanity has found a miracle to produce zero emissions. First let's consider climate lag [1]. There is a 40ish year delay between emissions and effects on the climate. So this means we are now only seeing the effects from the emissions from the late 70s early 80s. Here's t…

> Nobody knows how [atmospheric carbon] will affect the planet but it's not going to be good for us.

FTFY. Life on this planet is probably going to stick around. What happens to human civilization is the more interesting question.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#223

Post by avip » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 12:01 PM UTC

anm89 wrote: post #142

Fede_V wrote: post #27

Global warming is the single scariest existential threat our species has ever faced, and we aren't doing nearly enough to tackle it. Our future descendants will heap scorn and curses on our generation, and we deserve every bit of it. Every politician that refuses to do what is necessary or finds it convenient to play stupid language games about 'settled science' is doing incalculable harm. As citizens, I encourage ev…

As someone who agrees with your suggestion as to how serious climate change is, I've come to think asking individuals to change their behavior to fix the problem is actually counter productive. People generally want to do the right thing and they want to matter whereas in my experience the average person is not a great systems thinker. So people are very receptive to calls to "be better" because it let's them fight f…

As expressed more harshly in prev. thread https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18519916

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#224

Post by tonyedgecombe » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 12:41 PM UTC

greglindahl wrote: post #175

anm89 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who agrees with your suggestion as to how serious climate change is, I've come to think asking individuals to change their behavior to fix the problem is actually counter productive. People generally want to do the right thing and they want to matter whereas in my experience the average person is not a great systems thinker. So people are very receptive to calls to "be better" because it let's them fight f…

> I've come to think asking individuals to change their behavior to fix the problem is actually counter productive. Don't worry, there are people saying this all over every climate discussion on HN. And then a huge distracting discussion about whether that's a good idea or not.

I do wonder if these are the same people who were outright denying climate change a decade ago. Whether it's a deliberate intention to muddy the conversation. Or perhaps it's a way to assuage their guilt about their own consumption patterns.

I might be being disingenuous but I see it so often it makes me curious. I don't know.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#225

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 1:52 PM UTC

talaketu wrote: post #160

csours wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not doubting you, this is just an honest repetition of what I've heard before. I thought that nuclear was also a GHG contributor because of the fossil fuels used in mining and refining it. Is this not the case? Like there is some cradle to grave GHG coefficient for different sources of power...

Nuclear power is very carbon-efficient (tonnes CO2 emmitted / GWh produced) due to the large quantity of energy produced over the generator lifecycle. It's on par with wind power, and better than solar, according to World Nuclear Org. | Lignite | 1054 | | Coal | 888 | | Oil | 733 | | Natural Gas | 499 | | SolarPV | 85 | | Biomass | 45 | | Nuclear | 29 | | Hydroelectric | 26 | | Wind | 26 | [1] http://www.world-nuclea…

[deleted]

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#226

Post by snowwrestler » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 2:25 PM UTC

hodgesrm wrote: post #17

I was up at Camp Muir on Mt. Rainier for the first time in 29 years last weekend. It's located at 10,000 feet and is surrounded by glaciers. The temperature was around 60F in the sun. We're getting temps in May/June that were rarely seen in August in previous decades. The impressive thing is how quickly the glaciers are receding. The Nisqually glacier, which used to be down near 4000 feet in the 1970s is about a mile…

I have a collection of climbing magazines from the 1990s, and many of the featured routes in South American ranges like the Cordilla Blanca are no longer climbable today. The glaciers, ice, and snow are gone, and what's left is crumbly, friable rock that is not safe to climb on.

Mt Rainier is also mostly composed of crumbly, friable rock, and I wonder just how climbable it would be without glaciers and snowfields to provide secure footing and keep rocks from falling down on people.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#227

Post by pier25 » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #222

pier25 wrote: post #190

Everyone here is focused on reducing emissions and such but quite frankly this is only a small part of the problem. Let's assume today, right now, humanity has found a miracle to produce zero emissions. First let's consider climate lag [1]. There is a 40ish year delay between emissions and effects on the climate. So this means we are now only seeing the effects from the emissions from the late 70s early 80s. Here's t…

> Nobody knows how [atmospheric carbon] will affect the planet but it's not going to be good for us . FTFY. Life on this planet is probably going to stick around. What happens to human civilization is the more interesting question.

Yeah, life will find a way, even if it's just fungus and microbes.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#228

Post by snowwrestler » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #222

pier25 wrote: post #190

Everyone here is focused on reducing emissions and such but quite frankly this is only a small part of the problem. Let's assume today, right now, humanity has found a miracle to produce zero emissions. First let's consider climate lag [1]. There is a 40ish year delay between emissions and effects on the climate. So this means we are now only seeing the effects from the emissions from the late 70s early 80s. Here's t…

> Nobody knows how [atmospheric carbon] will affect the planet but it's not going to be good for us . FTFY. Life on this planet is probably going to stick around. What happens to human civilization is the more interesting question.

Seems like there could be a pretty big gap between "life on this planet is probably going to stick around" and "good." Life made it through the Chicxulub impact but I doubt you would have called it good had you been on Earth at that time.

I'm continually surprised at how often people counter warnings about global warming with comments to the effect that life, in general, will go on. That's a low bar! Way lower than you'd accept in any other context of your life, I'd bet.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#229

Post by snowwrestler » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 2:41 PM UTC

john_moscow wrote: post #115

Fede_V wrote: post #27

Global warming is the single scariest existential threat our species has ever faced, and we aren't doing nearly enough to tackle it. Our future descendants will heap scorn and curses on our generation, and we deserve every bit of it. Every politician that refuses to do what is necessary or finds it convenient to play stupid language games about 'settled science' is doing incalculable harm. As citizens, I encourage ev…

Except a single factory in China emits more CO2 than all the readers of this HN thread combined. So all you are going to do by minimizing your own carbon footprint is make your own life miserable and free up the resources for someone who doesn't give a damn. And I am sorry to say that, but I don't think that a global framework enforcing the same environmental restrictions on every country in the world, regardless of…

> And I am sorry to say that, but I don't think that a global framework enforcing the same environmental restrictions on every country in the world, regardless of its economic state, is realistic. Sorry.

Those frameworks already exist. There's a framework for CFCs that has been effective at slowing the destruction of global ozone. There's a framework that governs the disposal of radioactive materials. And yes, there's already one for greenhouse gases. The U.S. president just pulled the U.S. out of it. So, one thing that U.S. residents can do is vote for a new president who will put the U.S. back into it.

> once the global warming effects start noticeably affecting regular people, there will be a wave on businesses built around mitigating those effects

The fundamental problem is that real estate is by far the largest store of global wealth, and global warming will destroy some of that via sea level rise, and potentially alter some other parts by shifting weather patterns.

It is hard to solve social problems with profitable businesses in the face of large-scale declining wealth. That's usually called a recession or depression, and every time we've faced that sort of problem in the past century, the government has had to step in to help. In fact, addressing those sorts of problems is one reason humanity invented government in the first place.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#230

Post by hodgesrm » Wed, Jun 19, 2019, 2:42 PM UTC

snowwrestler wrote: post #226

hodgesrm wrote: post #17

I was up at Camp Muir on Mt. Rainier for the first time in 29 years last weekend. It's located at 10,000 feet and is surrounded by glaciers. The temperature was around 60F in the sun. We're getting temps in May/June that were rarely seen in August in previous decades. The impressive thing is how quickly the glaciers are receding. The Nisqually glacier, which used to be down near 4000 feet in the 1970s is about a mile…

I have a collection of climbing magazines from the 1990s, and many of the featured routes in South American ranges like the Cordilla Blanca are no longer climbable today. The glaciers, ice, and snow are gone, and what's left is crumbly, friable rock that is not safe to climb on. Mt Rainier is also mostly composed of crumbly, friable rock, and I wonder just how climbable it would be without glaciers and snowfields to…

Rockfall has always been part of the fun of climbing on the upper parts of Mt Rainier. The practical effect of warming is that the season where you need to worry about it is now extended.

What's more worrying is the possibility we'll see some major collapses. Many of the big features on Rainier like Gibraltar Rock and the Willis Wall are anchored by ice at the base. As this disappears those structures may become unstable. It's conceivable that collapse could trigger lahars, which are a big risk for people in the valleys below the mountain. In the past these have run all the way out to Puget Sound.