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Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

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Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#31
post #11

Wow. That guy attracted serious railroading and pushback by people who didn’t like that his data didn’t align with their talking points. He’s not denying climate change, he’s presenting scientific data that contradicts the narrative thst climate change results in increased losses due to weather events/disasters.

He's one scientist pushing against the consensus scientific view, and the people most keen to promote him to the general public are those who want any excuse to deny climate-change. He himself may be honest, but it essentially doesn't matter, such is politics.

>the people most keen to promote him to the general public are those who want any excuse to deny climate-change

Correct me if I am wrong here, but as far as I understand, his argument is that climate change is happening, it is too late to stop the initial effects, and not all the tech to decarbonise the economy is available at the scale required yet. Added to this, his view is that pretty much all the current increase in financial costs of weather disasters can be put down to the massive increase in concentrations of populations and wealth from urbanisation, and this effect has been on a scale such that that even if there has been an increase in seriousness or frequency of the disasters themselves, that effect is currently minor in comparison, at least in terms of raw financial cost, when compared with the effects from societal changes. From here, he recommends that if our focus is just kept on preventing climate change, we will cause a lot more problems than if we widen the scope of our focus towards policies of adaptation, as that is what will be required in the short to medium term while we are waiting on decarbonised technology to scale globally.

Now whether you agree with it, much of this I think seems like a perfectly reasonable and nuanced position to take, however I will note that people who have decided to jump into bed with him for political expediency may be in for quite a shock, given that any policies of adaptation are almost certainly going to have to include policies of mass migration and the level of international cooperation required to manage this will all but do away with current notions of national sovereignty. I really hope for their sakes, that they aren't big fans of the Westphalian orthodoxy.

Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#32
At first I was sympathetic to his point. But then I realized that this is a classic case of picking the metric to push your agenda. What matters is that climate change is causing more severe weather and that weather is causing increasingly more damage and that this whole problem is severe enough to be a national security issue (indeed an international one). It is completely beyond the point that poor people have simultaneously been pushed into areas more prone to weather damage. A sensible person would think that is even more of a reason to combat climate change. A propagandist will twist it to somehow argue that climate change advocacy is "alarmist" and continue ignoring the issue while the real and potential costs keep rising exponentially the more we wait.

Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#34

At first I was sympathetic to his point. But then I realized that this is a classic case of picking the metric to push your agenda. What matters is that climate change is causing more severe weather and that weather is causing increasingly more damage and that this whole problem is severe enough to be a national security issue (indeed an international one). It is completely beyond the point that poor people have simu…

No, he did the analysis on actual weather events, including hurricanes, drought, tornadoes, etc and came up with no evidence of increased extremes in the past 50 years compared to the 50 years prior.

Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#36

His statements might be correct. But it's interesting to note who is most supportive of him: namely right-wing climate-change deniers. This is a problem in politics. He may be a completely honest actor and yet he will be weaponised against climate research altogether.

"Everything that can be destroyed by the truth, deserves to be destroyed by the truth"

Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#37
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know it's been a really long time since the climate changed as rapidly as it's changing now. I'm not sure whether it ever warmed up as quickly before. Evolution needs time. We're already in the midst of a major extinction event. Life will most likely go on, but I see no reason to believe that we'll survive the transition at our current numbers.

I see no reason to believe that we won't, unless you think we'll suddenly lose all technology that we've developed over the past 5000 years. Also, here's a list at some of the dramatic swings in temperature and sea levels over just the past 2 million years, including many events impacting modern human history, such as the Little ice age: http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html

Note the scale of the x-axis here and the predicted jump for the next 100 years: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/All_pala...

It doesn't look like we had such rapid warming before, at least not in the last million years where we have decent data. We don't know how the ecosystem will handle it.

Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#38
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Listen, life has thrived on this planet for well over a billion years. It's seen carbon levels much, much higher and primates literally evolved during such periods. It's ludicrous to suggest that billions will die.

As far as I know it's been a really long time since the climate changed as rapidly as it's changing now. I'm not sure whether it ever warmed up as quickly before. Evolution needs time. We're already in the midst of a major extinction event. Life will most likely go on, but I see no reason to believe that we'll survive the transition at our current numbers.

Which major extinction event? Do you really think this is an appropriate comparison to proven major extinction events of the past (e.g Chicxulub, 66 m. years ago)?

Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#39
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know it's been a really long time since the climate changed as rapidly as it's changing now. I'm not sure whether it ever warmed up as quickly before. Evolution needs time. We're already in the midst of a major extinction event. Life will most likely go on, but I see no reason to believe that we'll survive the transition at our current numbers.

Which major extinction event? Do you really think this is an appropriate comparison to proven major extinction events of the past (e.g Chicxulub, 66 m. years ago)?

The human impact on biodiversity forms one of the primary attributes of the Anthropocene. Humankind has entered what is sometimes called the Earth's sixth major extinction. Most experts agree that human activities have accelerated the rate of species extinction. The exact rate remains controversial – perhaps 100 to 1000 times the normal background rate of extinction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropocene#Biodiversity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

Re: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)

#40
post #16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Credentialism is one of the worst forms of intellectual laziness. Judge a person's ideas by their quality, not the piece of paper some institution saw fit to sign.

Some institutions may have significant expertise on a subject where you don't, making such credentials occasionally very useful.

That’s exactly the point and why it’s laziness. If you lack the knowledge to judge someone’s work then intellectual honesty requires foregoing an opinion on its quality. Saying “well I don’t understand, but his degree doesn’t have climate in its name so he must not know what he’s talking about” is gross laziness. And if you do have the expertise to accurately judge the work in question, then it stands or falls on its own and the credentials don’t matter.
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