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Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

reuters.com

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Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#51

Post by 734129837261 »

HugoDaniel wrote: post #32
magwa101 wrote: post #23

We'll adapt, but the global ecosystem is dying. It'll be cows, cats, dogs, pigs, chickens, us and stories of animals.

Yeah we will adapt, but not fast enough.

We will. We always do. There is no reason to assume we won't. The wealthy westerners will not notice because of air conditioning and endless bottled water. The less wealthy ones will suffer the heat a bit more. The poor ones will be taken care of.

Third world nations will suffer. Some might die. Maybe many. But humanity will adapt. We might lose a few hundred million in the next few decades until their folks find new places to live, and we westerners will suffer an influx of refugees, and we'll be just fine once again.

The population of the planet will continue growing to about 20 billion during the worst of the climate change. And we'll be without ice caps. And we'll be fine.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#52

Post by NeedMoreTea »

dvorak365 wrote: post #21
pfisch wrote: post #7

Maybe I don't understand the ramifications of this, but it kind of sounds like we missed the offramp where we just stop burning carbon. Shouldn't we just be moving to something drastic like a massive sun shade project ASAP?

Climate engineering to stop global warming seems to me like trying to remove a bullet by shooting it out from the other side

Of course once some tipping points have actually tipped, we may have no choice in the matter.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#53

Post by entropea »

theothermkn wrote: post #19

This phenomenon is curious, in a morbid sort of way. There is literally no way to stop it; we are, as Noam Chomsky fears, a lethal mutation. We developed the ability to create industrial and economic activity on such a scale, and with such sophistication, that we've overcome the planet's ability to cope, but we have no mechanism in place that seems remotely capable of remedying that situation without a global catastr…

>There is literally no way to stop it

All people have to do is put their arms behind their backs, stop working, and demand it happen from the most powerful people in the world. I assure you that this isn't as bad as having humanity go extinct from climate change. Admittedly, getting enough people to do that is the real challenge, especially in the face of capital trying to tell them the exact opposite.

If an asteroid was about to direct hit in say 2029. Would society just argue on the internet and die? For how advanced we are, I really think we're an extremely weak society. Existential threats are taken very lightly.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#54

Post by colinyoung »

theothermkn wrote: post #19

This phenomenon is curious, in a morbid sort of way. There is literally no way to stop it; we are, as Noam Chomsky fears, a lethal mutation. We developed the ability to create industrial and economic activity on such a scale, and with such sophistication, that we've overcome the planet's ability to cope, but we have no mechanism in place that seems remotely capable of remedying that situation without a global catastr…

You're dead too, buddy.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#55

Post by LinuxBender »

theothermkn wrote: post #45
LinuxBender wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen a few sites that suggest much of this is based on our orbit [1]. If that is true, then the oceans may be about to dump ludicrous amounts of Co2. Hopefully we can find a way to turn that into fuel. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=milankovitch+cy...

Wow. Three non sequiturs in three sentences. There are sites that suggest any number of things. Unspecified "sites" have little bearing on the actual facts. I'm not sure that Milankovitch Cycles imply the dumping of CO2. > Hopefully we can find a way to turn that into fuel. This is the silliest and most thermodynamically backward thing I've read in a year. CO2 is burnt carbon. It's burnt. Burnt stuff ain't fuel; it's…

Co2 into fuel [1]

[1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/07/carbon-engineering-and-harva...

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#56

Post by tryptophan »

BlackRing wrote: post #24
andromeduck wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could have had nuclear but nope too scary!

The anti-nuclear scare was saddening. We could have had multiple per-state with cheaper electric and more efficient and resilient power grids by now.

I find it a little ironic that green activists from 40 years ago are the ones who indirectly caused so much harm.

I've started thinking that people with good intentions are often the most terrible because they will never question their methods (or results) as their goal is holy and justifies all.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#57

Post by blurbleblurble »

LinuxBender wrote: post #31
Fede_V wrote: post #27

Global warming is the single scariest existential threat our species has ever faced, and we aren't doing nearly enough to tackle it. Our future descendants will heap scorn and curses on our generation, and we deserve every bit of it. Every politician that refuses to do what is necessary or finds it convenient to play stupid language games about 'settled science' is doing incalculable harm. As citizens, I encourage ev…

I've seen a few sites that suggest much of this is based on our orbit [1]. If that is true, then the oceans may be about to dump ludicrous amounts of Co2. Hopefully we can find a way to turn that into fuel. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=milankovitch+cy...

Nope. Causal effects of insolation fluctuations on greenhouse gases/global average temperature exist, but they're dwarfed by the causal relationships (in both directions) between global avg. temperature and greenhouse gases: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2568

P.s. this is the most incredible climate study I know of. This is a topological statistical analysis that doesn't rely on any specific climate model to draw its conclusions about the strengths of causal relationships. So there can be no quibbling about the model being wrong. That simply doesn't matter with this awesome application of dynamical systems theory, it needs no model.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#58

Post by kryogen1c »

tasty_freeze wrote: post #12

Please don't take this as snark -- I'm dead serious. There are climate change deniers who will point to this as support of their position. "See, those climate scientists' predictions are always wrong." The fact is the IPCC is well aware of the political headwinds it faces and its reports are conservative -- they have always underestimated the likely outcome because it is hard enough to get sign-off on even that, plus…

I was under the impression predictions had to be conservative because the modeling error is so large. Its not at as if they know whats going to happen and are being coy about it.

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#59

Post by NeedMoreTea »

jjoonathan wrote: post #29
tasty_freeze wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do have nuclear, and have had it for decades. Concerns about what to do with the waste are indeed an issue, but the bigger problems is nuclear hasn't been cost competitive with coal and more recently natural gas. It is complex trade-off and just blaming it on NIBMY sentiment is not really engaging the issue.

If we hadn't stopped building nuclear in the 80s and had merely kept up the pace, we'd be 50% nuclear (instead of 20%) today. If we had continued the accelerating pace, we'd be 100% nuclear. Today. Not in 2050, today. Compare to solar, which only recently broke the 1% mark. Nuclear has gone from very cost-competitive (5c/kWh) to not at all cost-competitive (alternatively: "financially risky," often shortened to "risk…

The typically socialised decommissioning costs, far in excess of estimates, of nuclear usually seem to more than cancel out any cost competitiveness.

I was quite pro-nuclear in the 80s and 90s...

Re: Canadian permafrost thaws 70 years earlier than predicted

#60

Post by wnevets »

theothermkn wrote: post #45
LinuxBender wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen a few sites that suggest much of this is based on our orbit [1]. If that is true, then the oceans may be about to dump ludicrous amounts of Co2. Hopefully we can find a way to turn that into fuel. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=milankovitch+cy...

Wow. Three non sequiturs in three sentences. There are sites that suggest any number of things. Unspecified "sites" have little bearing on the actual facts. I'm not sure that Milankovitch Cycles imply the dumping of CO2. > Hopefully we can find a way to turn that into fuel. This is the silliest and most thermodynamically backward thing I've read in a year. CO2 is burnt carbon. It's burnt. Burnt stuff ain't fuel; it's…

He's a critical free thinker, so it's ok.
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