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Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

reuters.com

241–250 of 594 posts

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#241

I think most people with an understanding of economics would agree that more supply is needed. The problem is, zoning laws are made by the cities themselves, which means they are ultimately made by the people who already live there. People who already live there don't want their neighborhoods bulldozed for luxury high rises, which is what happens when zoning is abolished. Then, there is the problem of the suburbs. A…

I wish someone with a deeper understanding would go to Japan and study how they got this so right. Their zoning laws don't separate uses, only nuisance levels, so you often see residential in commercial areas and small shops in residential neighborhoods. It's amazingly effective at reducing how far you need to go to get places, and gives the whole city a much more organic feel. Plus, there is actually housing if ther…

There's definitely a cultural element but it's also due to how buildings are used in japan. Black mold makes it where you really don't want to deal with a structure over 40 years old so there's always things being destroyed and new structures being built rather than old structures being renovated; neighborhoods are in a constant turnover and buildings are disposable. All of urban Tokyo was also destroyed during WWII and had to be rebuilt in a new way.

In the U.S. you might have some neighborhoods that have been largely the same for the past 50-100 years. Since there's no absolute need to replace housing stock unless disaster, people are much more emotionally invested in the existing layouts of their neighborhoods, and advocate against their own economic interests by voting down new developments or zoning changes.

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#242
post #184
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they just declared housing to be affordable (in the $20/month ballpark region) and people had to apply 10 years in advance to move to a larger apartment. This is my parent's experience in east Germany, should be similar to Soviet Union.

The curios thing about these anecdotes is that as dysfunctional as somewhere like the Soviet Union was, getting a affordable apartment in only 10 years would be a great deal for many today. In many metro areas property values have increased more the savings from the median income, meaning that the application, or aspiration, of the majority of people is going in reverse.

> getting a affordable apartment in only 10 years would be a great deal for many today

I agree, but the same applied for buying a car and other rare goods as well. The whole system was unsustainable. The almost comical dysfunction of it is probably hard to believe if you didn't experience it first hand. 10 years after the wall came down my dad came into the kitchen announcing that today we could have picked up our first car, which was one of those [1], in the late 90s.

[1]: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/No1-4GsQa-g/maxresdefault.jpg

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#243
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, new buildings are desirable because they're new and will always find buyers, especially if built in a nice neighborhood.

I doubt that. In old cities like Berlin the best places are in the center because everything is there and there is good public transport access. And new houses are probably built somewhere in suburbs where there is no good transport, no subway, no train stations, nothing except for houses.

have you ever been to berlin? plenty of new construction in central areas. either by razzing older, lower-rise, buildings or by filling in unbuilt or blighted areas (fewer of those as time goes on but there were vast areas where the walls & no-mans zones used to occupy).

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Requiring a portion of builds be below market rate is an equivalent disincentive from builders perspective.

Interesting point. It would only apply to the 15%-25% of below-market-rate units, so yes it would reduce supply, but not as much as making the entire building rent controlled (or below market rate).

Building is quite a risky proposition, mostly due to the large investments required, the time to recoup them, and the uncertainty of the costs. Delays and unforeseen issues quite often turn a construction into a money-losing venture. Once those risks are factored in, despite the large return on successful investments, the profits aren't great. So, it doesn't take much to make a proposition unattractive.

Luxury apartments tend to be more attractive to builders not simply because they can make more money, but because the increased profit result in lower risk.

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish someone with a deeper understanding would go to Japan and study how they got this so right. Their zoning laws don't separate uses, only nuisance levels, so you often see residential in commercial areas and small shops in residential neighborhoods. It's amazingly effective at reducing how far you need to go to get places, and gives the whole city a much more organic feel. Plus, there is actually housing if ther…

It’s actually pretty simple: housing isn’t an investment vehicle like it is in many parts of the West. The social and historical reasons why this is so in Japan are complicated, but the overall circumstances are not. You can either have affordable housing that’s not an appreciating asset or let finance/real estate Capital run roughshod over everything in speculative flurries, leading to the insane state of affairs in…

you can have both as long as productivity is growing, increasing labor's bargaining power and wages

unfortunately productivity is pretty stagnant across developed economies, including japan

if capital and business owners have no need for new/enhanced labor as is the case in many developed economies where offshoring/new hire cycling is rampant, then a housing affordability crisis definitely builds up, unless:

(1) the municipal/federal government steps in to regulate rent as it has done in Berlin

(2) there is a good architectural/geological/tax incentive that prevents NIMBYISM

(3) cultural/work factors allow the younger gen to live at home/work remotely

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should consider a 75% capital gains rate on land value increases. After all, the owner typically had little effect on their own land value. A big effect comes from their neighbors building shops and offices and the biggest effect comes from the city building roads and transit and other infrastructure. Land "investment" is the least productive form of investment. If you built a building, then yes, profit from that,…

The georgist approach. I was pondering a high annual ground tax instead of a capital gains tax

Otherwise known as "property tax".

Something neat I've noticed locally is that condos with high property management fees have proportionally lower selling prices.

If all 2 bedroom units in an area/city are $3000/month and one building had property management fees of $1000 instead of $500, the unit's value is $500/month lower (approx. $100,000 selling price).

I'm not sure how that would be implemented on a city scale though.

For density: If you drastically raise property taxes to be proportional to square footage instead of appraised value, you instantly incentivize higher density building. If you're paying $1000 tax per square foot of ground floor, you can spread that over a single floor, or 40 floors.

Was that your thought?

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#248
There are a lot of factors at play here:

1.) Supply is inelastic because construction work and building approvals are limited by current capacity. It is not feasible to expect the market to react as quickly as 600,000 new inhabitants over 10 years required.

2.) A lot of policy is still considering this to be a fad before cities become less popular again. Berlin's plans had for instance foreseen falling demand for schools due to demographic change and now rising birthrates (good economic situation) and influx of young people into cities are causing a trend change (for how long?).

3.) Current ECB rates are causing a housing bubble in Germany where many people are buying property for the first time. Because these properties are mostly rented when purchased but renters can't be terminated in Germany, the only way to evict is by raising rent until renters give up. Putting a rent freeze into place makes sense to prevent this and the rampant luxury renovations which don't create more supply.

4.) Berlin at its peak (1944) had still more than half a million more people and is surrounded by mostly empty countryside. It could easily grow to 10m as Paris or London.

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#249

As much as I can sympathise with the predicament, this decision, and the Berlin housing market in general, absolutely baffles me. When I moved here I was warned of 100 people turning up to a flat viewing, and laughed it off as some hyperbole. Only later did I find out that it actually happens , albeit the maximum viewing I went to was around a meagre 50. Having come from the UK, I found the situation in Berlin to be…

Freezing rents is not meant to be a solution for a lack of housing. It’s a solution to the explosive increase of rents of existing ones.

There are lots of people where the rents of their current apartment have increased so much, that they had to move out. This solution is trying to fix that.

Also freezing rents doesn’t mean Berlin will stop building new houses. If there is big demand for housing in a city one needs both:

1. make sure people currently living in the city are able to do so in the future

2. make sure new people coming to the city have available space

Freezing rents is aimed at problem one. These solutions are not exclusive.

Re: Berlin approves 5-year rent freeze

#250
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’re talking about Airbnb, as far as I know what you’re describing is not allowed in Berlin.

The ban was lifted in May 2018: https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/03/berlin-airbnb-vacation-...

Interesting, thank you for the information. Though, from your link:

> It nonetheless imposes some pretty firm conditions on vacation rentals and makes the penalties for ignoring them far more stringent. All landlords seeking to rent out their home will only be allowed to do so if they get a general permit from their borough, even if they intend only to rent their property out for occasional short stays. While landlords applying for a permit at their primary residency will likely be approved, second home owners may face a more rigorous process. Landlords who leave an apartment untenanted, meanwhile, will need a special permit from the borough to do so after three months of vacancy without having a permanent tenant registered, cutting the current vacancy grace period in half. Most strikingly, the maximum penalty for breaking the rules has been multiplied by five, to a potential fine of €500,000 ($617,000).

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