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The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

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Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#321
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your plumber has additional material and labor costs you're not seeing.

Primary cost of labor is your health. Those kind of jobs aren't done by people over 45. The human body degrades during that sort of work.

Lol tell that to my dad who is still painting houses at 63. Or his competition who is still painting at 70. that is preposterous. In fact most laborors I know are well above 45. Yeah it takes a toll on your health but most of the health issues I see in labor intensive jobs is because of alcoholism. Its good for your body by and large to get up every day and do physical work. Yes your back will hurt, and your feet and your joints. But you'll be in good health.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Then we'd see soaring productivity, which we don't see: https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1140259227908411392 This is like using a total number for "inflation" to assume that costs have not gone up. And yet... https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/pricechanges... Childcare, hospital services, college textbooks, college tuition, childcare, and medical services way overindex the average inflation. TVs…

That is exactly the argument of the paper the OP is promoting [1]: that the cost of education is due to the "Baumol Effect:" it is an industry dominated by the cost of human contact (the teacher's time) and human contact is not subject to productivity gains in the same way other goods are. In other words, it isn't that education isn't unusually expensive, it's that everything else is unusually cheap. From the paper's…

I've had the same thought. That the price of goods have decreased. But more due to cheap imports. Of course productivity improvements are also important but less so. Then as those prices go down, the central bank prints money to counteract decreasing prices.

And it's because of this currency debasement that the price of everything else increases.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#323

The money has slowly been taken out of everything. It's a deliberate program. When a new market opens up, like say the internet in the 90s, then the investors and the people in charge will allow some of us to be overpaid for a while. It's really not out of the goodness of their heart's. At that point they are focusing on market capture, and they need bodies to help them do that. Eventually they find a way to make tha…

Efficiency is a “bad deal” in a place with a very low floor of benefits / lifestyle. In economies with very high minimums, efficiency is not too bad! Would you prefer a dynamic market with winners and losers or a stable market that’s kinda ok for a lot of people? This trade off seems pretty easy but over long periods of time the stable market starts to look like a stagnant market that may not allow new entrants to ne…

These are all theoretical benefits, if you can't afford a decent place to live and feel like you have to delay having kids till 38.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#324
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're talking about a single individual, doing a degree in something employable might be a good strategy for getting a job, but it doesn't follow that getting more people into professional degree programs will significantly change the underemployment situation. Our economy only needs so many teachers, engineers, doctors, etc. Underemployment of an entire generation isn't caused by the degrees they choose.

The article doesn’t put forward a case for underemployment of an entire generation. It puts forward a case for a certain level of increased underemployment for a generation of student loan holders. It’s self-evident that if those college graduates who are underemployed had chosen different courses, then the problem would look quite different. The fact that developed nations have to import large amounts of skilled lab…

> It’s self-evident that if those college graduates who are underemployed had chosen different courses, then the problem would look quite different.

Not only is this not self-evident, it defies common sense and economics. If more people take professional degrees then the supply of those degrees increases and salaries decrease (and we're back where we started). That is, if there are enough professional jobs to go around which there aren't. You seem to think there are lots of professional jobs to go around, but I went to school with many engineers who struggled to find jobs after graduation. It seems like we're above the point of saturation in many professions.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#325
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so are you saying that there should be no student loans on humanities degrees? Because that's the logical conclusion of what you're saying here. Would it make sense for the government to make a list of fields where they do back up student loans (which would probably be mostly STEM fields)?

There can always be a private loan market for student loans. Government guaranteed student loans basically happen out of goodwill. The assumption is that it will be a net benefit and therefore everyone should be given the opportunity. However this didn't turn out to be true. If the government keeps funding loans that will never be paid back then it won't be able to fund the loans that can be paid back. I don't really…

The description of the STEM/MINT situation in German universities is far too generalized. You have quite a few STEM/MINT universities and programs which require a numerus clausus, its just up to the university to set the NC. Many classical STEM/MINT programs dont have a problem with having a few hundred students each year instead of a few dozen since alot of those will fail in the first years where students just have to learn the basics of the field. Those courses are generally easy to teach and require little interaction with individual students. In the most prestigious technical universities having 70 to 90% of the students fail specific exams is nothing special. And studends are barred from the program after failing the 3rd try. You are also not completely barred with to low of an average entry grade from school, you will just have to wait longer to start your degree. That part is the case for every university and every program, STEM/MINT isnt a special case here.

edited for more information

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The question is why are people completing unmarketable (or not sufficiently marketable) degrees? For the pursuit of knowledge. Universities are not job training. You getting a good job with your degree is a bonus not the intend outcome for a university.

Man, this canard gets really tiring. Don't get me wrong: I was crazy about university as a place of learning and added a "useless" major & minor from a career perspective to take advantage of the opportunity to learn But 1) this doesn't reflect the priorities of the vast majority of people, 2) this wasn't to the exclusion of paying attention to what's marketable (ie my other major), and 3) it beggars belief to claim…

People are taking one of those courses because universities in the USA are basically companies. As a result you get marketing to sucker people into buying stuff they dont need and cant afford.

That doesnt change the fact that we have those programs in the first place for the pursuit of knowledge in the hope that it will benefit society. That benefit doesnt have to be an economic one. A degree in your native language has arguably little financial value, but you only have to look to countries like France to see how much a society still collectively values their language.

Investing in universities is historically something nations afford themselves in the hopes it will be of benefit to society. The idea of individuals investing into themselves is a rather American one. I would argue the only reason a large amount of US universities exist is because they have a special tax status and people get to take special loans to pay for their services. Alternatively you would just have companies providing job training. From the outside it looks like much of the problems with the US system stems from purposefully not communicating that difference to new students

edit: To word it differently, the sole purpose of the teaching arm of a classical university is to enable the next generation to introduce novel ideas into their fields. Thats what a doctoral dissertation is. You advancing your field and adding to the collective knowledge.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#327
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Primary cost of labor is your health. Those kind of jobs aren't done by people over 45. The human body degrades during that sort of work.

Lol tell that to my dad who is still painting houses at 63. Or his competition who is still painting at 70. that is preposterous. In fact most laborors I know are well above 45. Yeah it takes a toll on your health but most of the health issues I see in labor intensive jobs is because of alcoholism. Its good for your body by and large to get up every day and do physical work. Yes your back will hurt, and your feet and…

Think construction... welders... carpenters... plumbers... guys who smash appendages and crawl around in mud.

I know quite a few old ones and I know many many more who struggle with pain every day as they are my age and talk to me about it. ( IT being my 3rd career after welding and meatcutting ) I have many friends who are dropping out of the workforce and finding alternative jobs because they cant do the work.

Painting is hard work but its one of the less body impacting you can do. There are a few roles like that and yes, being active is a good thing.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#328
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is the government subsidizes loans.

It is that in addition to the fact that they cannot be discharged in bankruptcy under the majority of cases (nearly all).

You can’t mandate that banks must give loans to all student applicants regardless of collateral, and at the same time permit bankruptcy of those loans. Those two things are in direct conflict. Literally every graduate would simply declare bankruptcy (Since anyone who is both a graduate and borrow would by definition be broke). You’d be a fool not to. There’s literally no downside to bankruptcy if you’re a broke 22 year old with a brand new $250k debt and a degree in anything.

Your choice are:

1. everyone can get a loan regardless of wealth, but they can’t file bankruptcy

2. Let banks only give student loans to qualified applicants (i.e. rich kids with co-signing rich parents) but permit bankruptcy.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#329
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it possible to disable these systems, or is something baked into the car where if you disable it the car won't run? This seems very suspicious unless the auto dealer/contractor is expecting most people to not even bother with the gps system.

I know that for my most recent vehicle purchase (paid cash, no loan) the dealer left their own anti-theft device installed. From what I could gather online, they use them for anti-theft on the lot and then can try to upsell you on a service that uses the same hardware during the sale. It's wired directly into the ignition system. Despite having a computer engineering degree and enough experience to be reasonably conf…

This is exactly what was on my wife’s Honda. Tried to up sell us on some theft deterrent system. Upon declining, we’re told it’s in there.

I recall buying a Honda back in the late 90s. Dealer tried to up sell me on having the VIN etched into all the windows. I declined. Drive the car home and realize it has the VIN etched in all the glass.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically because there is an education and need asymmetry between the buyer and seller in a lot of these cases. If the car is maybe worth $3K cash, but a dealer can lease it to someone for $4K by requiring no money down but high interest rates on the loan/monthly payments, where does one say the "market value" is? The dealer is getting $4K (or more in the cases where they repossess the car and re-lease it) because t…

In that case the market value is 3k and the dealer is selling the finance for 1k

Tell that to the state when they collect their sales tax.
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