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When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

thereformedbroker.com

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Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#41

Post by zackmorris »

Keep in mind that this "free" money comes from somewhere.

It comes from the people who can't get a fixed rate home loan or HELOC that get screwed when the economy tanks and their interest rises above 7% and they lose their home.

It comes from the people paying 30% interest on credit cards or 400+% on payday loans.

It comes from workers in China and India that get paid pennies on the dollar and can't get a loan over $1000 so have to work themselves to death for the West's ambition.

To see the world's capital potential squandered on new locator/ride share/service apps with valuations larger than the industries they're replacing is..

OBSCENE

The only thing propping this mobile/social bubble up is that unemployment is so low that people are too busy to realize how badly they're getting screwed by Wall Street.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#44

Post by zepto »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #35
elcomet wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have Lyft and Uber on my phone. I just pick the cheapest one when I need a ride. And drivers also have Lyft and Uber. And they just pick the one that offers them the highest rates. No network effect here.

There's still a network effect; it's just a duopoly. The third outfit trying to make this work can't, because they don't have anyone with their app on the phone, because they don't have any drivers, and they don't have any drivers because nobody wants to drive for them because they don't have any customers.

Seems like it would be trivial for someone to do exactly what Uber has done - pick a location and undercut everyone on price using predatory pricing. People will install a new app for a buck or two savings, and drivers will install a new app to get a 5% raise.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#45

Post by CPLX »

When you get to be an old person you start to notice patterns.

Whenever people start sayin "what if [cyclical bad thing] actually never happens again and the happy times are permanent because of [tenuous reasoning]" loudly and in public then it's inevitable that we're about to see the problems currently being created in secret by people who've had that delusional point of view for awhile.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#46

Post by Digory »

CPLX wrote: post #45

When you get to be an old person you start to notice patterns. Whenever people start sayin "what if [cyclical bad thing] actually never happens again and the happy times are permanent because of [tenuous reasoning]" loudly and in public then it's inevitable that we're about to see the problems currently being created in secret by people who've had that delusional point of view for awhile.

Yes. I saw a Fed Reserve big-wig say in a closed room that they'd conquered the business cycle ... just before the dotcom bust.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#48

Post by abakker »

titzer wrote: post #30
abakker wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

== Higher taxes, more research to prove not "where" to spend the money, but "on what, specifically?". Ever the problem with government and social science - government is dependent on social science to conduct studies that provide that tax dollars are well spent, and then also required to convince the electorate of the value of that expenditure. It's a tough problem with no easy answers. Effective politicians tend to…

> Effective politicians tend to create public sentiment and then find evidence It's really stunning when you consider that blowing a trillion dollars on a new fighter jet needed essentially zero popular support, but funding education is somehow so loony that it requires a solid political majority to even think about.

Agree. Major difference between already having budget and getting budget allocated.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#49

Post by m463 »

yoz-y wrote: post #8
elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

> Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The moment they raise their prices, they loose their market share. There is no network effect in this market. I disagree that there is no network effect. When one travels to another country it is much easier to use Uber rather than to find what local brew of 'carpooling' service is available, create an account, put in credit card info etc. Their tech is easily replicable…

Network effect is more than none, but less than all.

Lyft is also around, and it seems that there is very little friction for both drivers and riders to choose/arbitrage.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#50

Post by gnode »

Haul4ss wrote: post #40
gnode wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The same can be said for web shops like Amazon. The tech is nothing special, but the brand and network are. The promise of Uber is in becoming a trusted brand, with capacity everywhere, and convenient enough that you don't bother looking to the competition. That said, whether they can actually become this is another question.

Amazon is so much more than a "web shop"... its logistics infrastructure alone is worth actual money, to say nothing of AWS, Prime lock-in, etc.

Sure, but what I'm saying is: the largest value is in having won the hearts and minds of their customers (brand value). Amazon are often more expensive than competitors, but customers still prefer them because they know and trust the experience they will get.

Prime lock-in is not innovative or valuable as a concept in itself, it's just a way of capitalising on the loyalty of their customers, which would not work for many other retailers.

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