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Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

nytimes.com

201–210 of 238 posts

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#201
post #30

Could someone please explain what the long-term goal of the protesters is? Best case scenario, HK and Chinese government postpone the integration until 2047. What then? When the borders come down, what will happen to all those who openly talked against Beijing government, held candlelight vigils for Tienanmen Square victims, and rallied and protested against a government who does not like people protesting and does n…

The extent to which they carry a flame for Tiananmen indicates that they have an all-China political vision as well.

I believe there are two different crowds. The older one does the candle light vigils. The younger one wants HK independence and doesn't really care about the rest of China. But it would be great if the second group learned a bit of history, including of protest movements in the mainland, and showed that all-China vision you speak of. It could only help themselves and help everyone.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#202
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of a discussion that I've seen somewhere, with a Russian journalist who ran to the US after becoming a target for participating in the 2011–2013 Russian protests. - What's the public opinion of Russian people on Putin? - There's no such thing as public opinion in Russia. - What do you mean, I can go out, sample 1000 people and ask them a question. That's what I mean by public opinion. - You can do tha…

> You can do that, but the result is useless. There are studies on the topic - people will just say whatever was on last week's [state controlled] news. I doubt the correlation is perfect, which makes such polls non-useless. For example, comparing questions on which the correlation is more or less strong would allow identifying the degree of trust in the state media depending on the topic they're reporting on.

Yeah but the point is that >95% of signal is drowned in propaganda. And the other point is just how much is that inconceivable to someone with access to free press, as exemplified by your response.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#203

Could someone please explain what the long-term goal of the protesters is? Best case scenario, HK and Chinese government postpone the integration until 2047. What then? When the borders come down, what will happen to all those who openly talked against Beijing government, held candlelight vigils for Tienanmen Square victims, and rallied and protested against a government who does not like people protesting and does n…

2047 is 28 years from now. Twenty eight years ago, the Soviet Union still existed (until December). Twenty eight years ago, Chinese GDP per capita was $359.

Twenty eight years from now, the EU may not exist. There may no longer be fish in the ocean: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/salt-water-fish-extinction-seen...

All I'm saying is lot can happen in 28 years, and it's pretty silly for the protestors to give up now because of what might happen decades later.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#204
post #133
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One Country, Two Systems actually stipulates that Hong Kong shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy for "at least" 50 years, there is nothing that state what will actually happen afterwards. Therefore it is conceivable for Hong Kong to remain somewhat autonomous after 2047, after which, it is possible for mainland China to further develop politically and legally so that integration would cause less of an issue.

It's more like whisful thinking. The CCP is just being patient, eroding HK autonomy one law at a time so people don't realize it or become complacent.

They do realize it. Why do you think there are millions in the streets?

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#205

Could someone please explain what the long-term goal of the protesters is? Best case scenario, HK and Chinese government postpone the integration until 2047. What then? When the borders come down, what will happen to all those who openly talked against Beijing government, held candlelight vigils for Tienanmen Square victims, and rallied and protested against a government who does not like people protesting and does n…

Please read my comment below for the article.

For your question you must have to see not through the lens of a unified Hong Kong. Hong Kong is really international.

Firstly, there are four - June 9 1m+ then jun 9 evening; June 12 with some conflict but mostly the young one trying to stop the bill without this the bill would not have even suspended; jun 16 the 2m+. their composition are very different. The target is also different.

My comment and the article hopefully give you some hint on the jun 9 and jun 12 1 and 2m+. They are across spectrum of whole Hong Kong.

May I roughly said 1/2 of hker have foreign passport or at least have relatives overseas. Many of the protestors are not want to go but do have a place to go. Or try hard to. You may note those hongkonges’ link as 29 cities around the world join the protest. That segment join not to emigrate as they did it already. The law affected them staying in Hong Kong. But more importantly they would affect the Hong Kong status as it affect the foreigner as well.

You have to aware many of the objection to the law are coming from official diplomatic with official letters from Eu, Britain and many different USA camp. The 85,000 American lived here is a force. There are foreigners in the protest. If they go, Hongkong is done.

(There are another group. About 1m of hker are not really hker. They just come in the last 20 years for various reasons. The huawei woman in Canada is holding 3 hk passport. I suspect they might not have join the protest as they conf to hk to hide etc. Now they trigger others as if these group go the property markets may die. Hk is the most expensive place in the world to own a car park size flat. Other then foreigner these affect is key.)

This 2m+ protest is very unusual as many are pro-china and pro-establishment camp. For this they will no doubt stay. But it is driving away foreigner and hidden chinese rich that would affect them.

Guess you are after the two major protest but the conflict one. We are not sure about the brick throwing etc. But quite sure many of the protestor as reported by those hymns signing Christian are young kids. They call hk home. They would fight by putting their body between the gun and the legislature chamber to prevent the bill to pass. They are less calculated than we adults. They saw this as a beginning of end of Hong Kong as the chinese law come to rule. At all cost they have to stop it.

One protestor said clearly “shoot me dead is better than this” and then she join the effort encircling the chamber. Many young one was hurt as there is no weapon. One of my friend trying to help found out first time it hurt a lot when tear gas residue touch your skin. And she is just helping. But whilst crying and painful our kids just wash their eyes and skins. And go back. One said “I do not want to give up”. All still lost as the chamber finally was cleared. In fact they will charge 7-10 year in jail if caught. (And if they had gone to Hosiptal and without the doctor and nurse reporting them somehow the police know. Two get arrested this way.)

But the story leaked out to us all. Unlike umbrella movement there is no leader. None. Just kids organised themselves using telegram where to go. It was a shock to oldies like us. Self organised ... no match to riot police. But just kids fighting for their home.

The community know and shock. That is why one of the slogan is to not to define this as riot and release the student involved. In the protest sometimes I can see parents walking not very normal protestor like. Then I saw a boy or a girl around. You can sense what is going on. I suspect they come is to ensure the kid not to do this alone. May be they drag them out if something happen.

Before I went to protest one of my neigbour looking at me wearing black t shirt. They said they would not go themselves. But they told a bit their family and relatives story. It is like everyone know someone’s kid are involved. As she said in the past she blamed the activist. But all in jail now. These kids just went themselves. They are nice kids not troublemaker they said. Help them is their message if they are pro government.

These kids are not going to go anywhere. Better die than run, unlike their parents like us. Hong Kong is their home. 2047. I do not see they see there is a deadline. It is their motherland. Hong Kong is not China. Hong Kong is Hong Kong.

Hence even shocking to us usual protestor, the whole community move to protect their kids. I never saw so many people in my life m. I have even joined the jun 9 million people protest and June 16 is a totally different scale.

Not sure I answer your question as I do not know what are their strategy, tactics or plan. but I hope I give you an impression as one protestor following the case. It is a shock. If we live long enough you will see either a tragedy or a birth of a nation. God bless.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#206
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it became absolutely certain that an overwhelming majority of Texans wanted to secede, why does it need to be an overwhelming majority (what does that even mean exactly?) and not a simple majority? In case a non overwhelming majority of Texans wanted to secede, should their will be thwarted by a minority of their compatriots? It does not sound very democratic.

Democracy does not mean "51% rules", that's a common misconception. Democracy is about building legitimacy from as an uncontrovertial source as possible - from the clear and free choice of the body politic of a community rather than from some sort of divine revelation. Legitimacy comes from all political actors, from the minority accepting the will of the majority (because it knows its fundamental rights will be resp…

Indeed. Take a look at Brexit, where only 37% of the electorate voted to leave the EU, it has been politically impossible to pass the legislation.

The electorate don't want it and the politicians can't get the votes to pass the withdrawal treaty.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The difference is that this is private companies doing it of their own volition and not by government demand. Is this really a meaningful difference if the end result is the same?

Yes, because the alternative is the government forcing a 3rd party to provide a platform for speech they disagree with. And since that platform isn't free, you're also forcing them to spend their own resources to support it. Those 3rd parties have rights too. They shouldn't be required to support and provide resources for speech they disagree with.

> Yes, because the alternative is the government forcing a 3rd party to provide a platform for speech they disagree with. And since that platform isn't free, you're also forcing them to spend their own resources to support it.

> Those 3rd parties have rights too. They shouldn't be required to support and provide resources for speech they disagree with.

I think people keep conflating the notion of being _able_ to say what you please and having a platform to do so. I sympathize with these people because I have witnessed the erosion of the public square as a place to promote your own ideas (with people glued to their phones, with headphones on, etc).

However, I agree that we can't force service providers to host content they disagree with _for free_ but there's a reason we require water companies to provide water to synagogues and mosques alike.

I think as we advance technologically, access to information (and the platforms through which they are spread) will be regarded as a necessity to function as a member of society and will be regulated as such.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#208
post #75
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It cannot: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpetual_Union . Texas in fact voted to secede during the civil war, in a public referendum where secession got 75% of the vote. (Or course, it should be noted that the 30% of the population that was enslaved could not vote.) After Texas was defeated in the civil war, it was governed by a governor appointed by the union president for five years until it was readmitted to th…

The Texas secession movement doesn't claim a right to secede. Texas retains the right to split into five states. They plan to use the threat of adding 8 right-leaning senators to the US senate to convince democrats to let them leave.

Not quite that straightforward https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_divisionism

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#209
post #133
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One Country, Two Systems actually stipulates that Hong Kong shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy for "at least" 50 years, there is nothing that state what will actually happen afterwards. Therefore it is conceivable for Hong Kong to remain somewhat autonomous after 2047, after which, it is possible for mainland China to further develop politically and legally so that integration would cause less of an issue.

It's more like whisful thinking. The CCP is just being patient, eroding HK autonomy one law at a time so people don't realize it or become complacent.

I think the reason they are doing that is because if people do notice that all their rights are gone waking up one day in 2047, what would happen then would dwarf the protests we see now. They would rather portray HK as bickering over something minor many times then being in open revolt over a huge infringement of all their rights at the same time.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The short term goal is very simple. * Withdraw the bill, not a temporary suspension. * Withdraw the characterisation of last Wed protest as a riot.

Then? Carrie Lam step down? Then? Chief Executive elected directly? Then? Independence referendum? Then? ... There is no end really, and absent a working political process to absorb and debate demands, street protests can always turn toward the extreme. That's why it's dangerous to force people to go this route. Unfortunately there will be a red line somewhere, and for China it is probably one or two steps away on th…

These days CCP's action is getting less free. With Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and friends around the town it's no longer the cheapest labor to the point of being able to ignore the world's value. There's a price to be leveraged for every move.

Not a supporter of Trump otherwise but the trade war here does help. US is throwing punches already, see Hong Kong human rights democracy act: https://time.com/5607043/hong-kong-human-rights-democracy-ac...

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