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Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

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Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#111

Post by astrange »

iamnothere wrote: post #88
ZhuanXia wrote: post #2

I remember reading Average is Over and A Fairwell to Alms just when I first started working. They convinced me that labour power was going to decline precipitously. I stared saving 60+% of everything I made and putting it into index funds. Anyone making a good salary should attempt the same. Much of white collar work is extremely amenable to automation, much more than even truck driving: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wi…

Just make sure you diversify. Quality land, managed rental units, and other assets will still hold some value even if stocks and bonds take a massive hit. Regardless of the state of the economy, people still have to live somewhere.

Not if they read Henry George and realize there's no reason to assign you the land value.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#112

Post by astrange »

phkahler wrote: post #61
crazygringo wrote: post #3

> Q: Several studies show technology will disrupt jobs, but they also argue that almost as many jobs will be created. > A: There’s a mismatch of job displacement and job creation. Job displacement is being driven at the speed of digital technology, which is explosive at this moment. And displacement is the business model for the AI geniuses and all those companies. All of them are hoping to get rich by displacing wor…

Automation eliminates jobs. Period. There is a need for people to build and maintain the automation systems, but those jobs typically pay more. Whomever is paying the higher value person would not be doing so if it wasn't a net savings, so we can rightly conclude that it takes fewer people overall even if the pay were the same. But it's not, so even fewer jobs. You may say that the automation frees up people to do ot…

"Automation eliminates jobs" comes from people misreading studies on computer manufacturing. One manufacturing employee produces much more computer than they did in 1970 - does this mean the other workers were automated away? No, it means computers got thousands of times cheaper for the same product.

The US employment rate is the highest it's been in 50 years.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#113

Post by kingkawn »

adventured wrote: post #87
kingkawn wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gonna run out that clock when there’s no more natural world to exploit ruthlessly

That will never occur, fortunately. There is no end to the natural world. The natural resources that are most critical on Earth are infinite for all practical purposes in relation to human demands. This is especially true given the population growth curve for the next century. If we somehow exhaust the mineral deposits on Earth in the next few hundred years, we can and will mine the solar system. In the absolute wors…

The natural world will end for us when it can no longer sustain us. All these exploitations may be technically feasible according to a certain worldview, but we will not be there to carry them out if our belief in that worldview leads us to extinction.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#114

Post by andrenth »

blub wrote: post #107
andrenth wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The claim is that automation destroys jobs. This has been historically false, despite claims made each time that “this time it will be different”. Among the most viable of all economic delusions is the belief that machines on net balance create unemployment. Let us turn to Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations. The first chapter [...] is called “Of the division of labor,” and on the second page of this first chapter the aut…

That books was originally written in the 40s and updated in the 70s. Hazlitt likely didn't even dream of people being replaced by algorithms. The trick in the past has always been to invent new types of jobs to take advantage of the technological progress. We're out of tricks if one can automate highly sophisticated tasks.

He probably didn’t dream of auto industry automation either. And yet that industry employs millions of people.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#115

Post by andrenth »

wavefunction wrote: post #103
andrenth wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The claim is that automation destroys jobs. This has been historically false, despite claims made each time that “this time it will be different”. Among the most viable of all economic delusions is the belief that machines on net balance create unemployment. Let us turn to Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations. The first chapter [...] is called “Of the division of labor,” and on the second page of this first chapter the aut…

You can post a long wall of text but the actual claim is that FUTURE DISRUPTION due to globalization and automation will destroy existing jobs faster than new jobs that the displaced workers can move into can be created. Please respond to the actual subject of discussion in the future.

This has always been the claim, and it’s been historically proven false.

The book quote provides a way for you to understand for how long this claim is made (with an exemple from the 18th century), and yet here we are.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#116

Post by andrenth »

wavefunction wrote: post #104
hollerith wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Car sales in total have increased though. _because_ of automation lowering car prices among other causes.

That appears to be an unfounded assertion given what I've found comparing inflation adjusted average car prices: https://blog.chron.com/carsandtrucks/2016/04/cost-of-a-car-i... The average car price from 1967 is $3000 cheaper in 2016 dollars than the 2016 average car price. That may be due to a number of factors but I'm at least providing some data to back up my assertions.

I think the difference is pretty low considering how much safer and more comfortable current cars are.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#117

Post by samunism »

kingkawn wrote: post #81
influx wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Becoming a capitalist has a long history of being successful. The other way not as much.

Gonna run out that clock when there’s no more natural world to exploit ruthlessly

As Noah Smith says, this type of argument is simply lazy analysis. Much of the "exploitation" occurs not due to singular businesses, but because of governments pursuing their own independent agendas. Take oil drilling, where state sponsored firms in China do not heed environmental regulations. Is that pure capitalism killing the natural world?

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1139994638599589888

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#118

Post by maximente »

majewsky wrote: post #109
robocat wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While that would eliminate jobs within your organisation, it would clearly create development work in your suppliers. On balance I would guess you would create work overall rather than reduce it.

Tangentially related: The German industry is working on a standard for digital invoices. Invoices would be a human-readable PDF file with an additional XML payload containing a machine-readable version of the same data. I can't say anything about adoption though. The Google keyword is "ZUGFeRD" for those who are interested.

colombia is also implementing the same thing, their customs/tax authority has a custom XML schema (!!) where large business are rolling out .pdf and .xml receipts.

https://globaleinvoicing.com/en/electronic-invoice/colombia - for an english link

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#119

Post by m0llusk »

Jobs are essentially slavery and ditching them should be good for everyone. All we need to do is build a society that meets the basic needs of the population. We already have some tools and ideas to experiment with. Mourning the old order won't bring it back or delay change, only complicate this transition.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#120

Post by notfromhere »

orev wrote: post #66
duality wrote: post #57

I stopped reading when he said IBM Watson was somehow key in this "globotics" revolution. Even IBM seems to have stopped advertising Watson.

Given where Watson is now, the fact that systems mostly only get better, and all the other advances in AI, I think it’s safe to say that it will get better. He could also be using Waston as a general example of AI that might be relevant to a wider audience.

Watson isn't a thing, it's just fancy words for their army of low-paid consultants. I worked for a competitor and everyone largely decided Watson wasn't anything to worry about.
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