How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea • Hacker News Board

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#41

Post by kenjackson » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 12:43 AM UTC

jamiequint wrote: post #34

edw519 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry to say, Rich, that was not the response I expected. AFAIC, there is no gray area here. I have argued (yes, many have disagreed with me) the same for years here. A little background... I have seen more deals than you can imagine ruined because someone lost trust. As simple as that. The salesman fibbing to his wife on the phone in front of the customer. The contractor paying the 3rd party vendor a little extra to…

Are you saying that you believe that nobody should attempt to do smoke tests to measure product demand because you regard that as deceiving consumers? Its one thing to lie to make a sale, a completely different thing to not actually be able to deliver a product nobody ever paid for. The point of view you present seems extremely pedantic.

But, it's not that hard to do a smoke test that doesn't deceive consumers.

What's odd though is the company that everyone looks to as getting consumers the best doesn't appear to do any of this sort of validating.

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#42

Post by aberman » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 1:02 AM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #41

jamiequint wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that you believe that nobody should attempt to do smoke tests to measure product demand because you regard that as deceiving consumers? Its one thing to lie to make a sale, a completely different thing to not actually be able to deliver a product nobody ever paid for. The point of view you present seems extremely pedantic.

But, it's not that hard to do a smoke test that doesn't deceive consumers. What's odd though is the company that everyone looks to as getting consumers the best doesn't appear to do any of this sort of validating.

I'm not recommending that companies do this to figure out how to acquire customers.

I'm saying a person should do this to help determine whether an idea is worth pursuing.

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#43

Post by jamiequint » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 1:24 AM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #41

jamiequint wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that you believe that nobody should attempt to do smoke tests to measure product demand because you regard that as deceiving consumers? Its one thing to lie to make a sale, a completely different thing to not actually be able to deliver a product nobody ever paid for. The point of view you present seems extremely pedantic.

But, it's not that hard to do a smoke test that doesn't deceive consumers. What's odd though is the company that everyone looks to as getting consumers the best doesn't appear to do any of this sort of validating.

How would you recommend doing it? Which company are you referring to?

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#44

Post by EGreg » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 1:42 AM UTC

edw519 wrote: post #14

If anybody responds, tell them that the offer is oversubscribed and that it is no longer available. Wow! A company built to handle other people's money that recommends deception. What's wrong with this picture?

I somehow knew this would touch off a firestorm.

Come on, lots of people measure people's interest in ways where they go to some page or do an action and nothing is there.

True, after that, those people probably won't trust you unless they have a good reason to. But in the end of the day, you didn't really harm them and there are many more people.

Look I'm not saying it's not lying. I'm saying that there are worse things in the world than sending 20 people to a page to gage their interest.

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#45

Post by EGreg » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 1:43 AM UTC

edw519 wrote: post #17

aberman wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are being a little melodramatic. This is to vet an idea, not a sustainable way to build a business. I even said that it could/should be more of a thought experiment. And besides, I'm not recommending that you maliciously and deleteriously deceive people. pg on naughtiness: "Though the most successful founders are usually good people, they tend to have a piratical gleam in their eye. They're not goody-two-…

Sorry to say, Rich, that was not the response I expected. AFAIC, there is no gray area here. I have argued (yes, many have disagreed with me) the same for years here. A little background... I have seen more deals than you can imagine ruined because someone lost trust. As simple as that. The salesman fibbing to his wife on the phone in front of the customer. The contractor paying the 3rd party vendor a little extra to…

did you expect a profuse apology?

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#46

Post by isomorph » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 1:47 AM UTC

regarding the lying:

didn't bill gates lie to ibm when they were looking for an OS and say he had one (and then bought qdos and hacked it into dos)?

think of what a boon microsoft has been to the world (i'm only half facetious)

from a utilitarian - the only nonreligious, rational morality? - perspective...

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#47

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 1:59 AM UTC

swombat wrote: post #37

daemon wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd imagine that merely asking the potential users if they'd buy now, if it were available, would serve the same purpose.

No, it wouldn't. "Would you buy know?" doesn't select the same people as "Click here to buy now".

[deleted]

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#48

Post by kenjackson » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 2:41 AM UTC

jamiequint wrote: post #43

kenjackson wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, it's not that hard to do a smoke test that doesn't deceive consumers. What's odd though is the company that everyone looks to as getting consumers the best doesn't appear to do any of this sort of validating.

How would you recommend doing it? Which company are you referring to?

The company I was thinking of was Apple.

I think interviewing people is a good idea. The fact of the matter is at the "idea" stage you don't have enough information to present to people to really give them a feel for if your specific product is viable. But by interviewing a fair number of people, you can understand what their legitimate needs are and what they're willing to pay for it.

Of course it's not foolproof, but I think it will actually be better than the approach given in this blog.

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#49

Post by richcollins » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 3:37 AM UTC

edw519 wrote: post #14

If anybody responds, tell them that the offer is oversubscribed and that it is no longer available. Wow! A company built to handle other people's money that recommends deception. What's wrong with this picture?

In addition, I don't think that it is as effective as telling them that it isn't ready yet and asking them for an email to let them know when it comes out.

If they risk providing their email for a product that isn't even ready yet, it shows stronger interest than for a product that they think that they will be able to use right away.

Re: How to (In)validate Your Startup Idea

#50

Post by richcollins » Sat, Dec 18, 2010, 4:53 AM UTC

jamiequint wrote: post #43

kenjackson wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, it's not that hard to do a smoke test that doesn't deceive consumers. What's odd though is the company that everyone looks to as getting consumers the best doesn't appear to do any of this sort of validating.

How would you recommend doing it? Which company are you referring to?

You can still test ad copy and landing page copy that promises a future product in exchange for an email address.